Is The United States Experiencing Inflation?

[RummyBoy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/tilma...Gyv1G9Ryw.html

Sorry, I gotta ask this because the government figures seem to indicate nil or very low inflation. Then I see a video like above which tells a totally different story so I wanna ask you guys:

Do you feel that prices are going up?

If so, Is it a creeping increase?

If so, Is it a significant year on year increase?

Where do you see price increases happening most?

[Best-In-BC]

lol, everyone has experienced inflation, you would have to be a idiot not to see it. Its been going on for 50 years.

[aka123]

Most countries have some inflation as it is the desired state.

US too has inflation as far as I know. Big influencers to inflation are usually oil prices, food prices and house prices. The inflation is calculated from a "basket" of goods, those have different kind of emphasizes in the overal calculation.

[woj]

the figures they publish seem to be about right... you barely notice it, you really only notice it when thinking "when i was a kid, I could buy xx for $1, now it's $3"...

[RummyBoy]

Originally Posted by aka123

US too has inflation as far as I know. Big influencers to inflation are usually oil prices, food prices and house prices. The inflation is calculated from a "basket" of goods, those have different kind of emphasizes in the overal calculation.

Sure, inflation is always better than deflation. However, if inflation is way below target (assuming target is around 2%) then wont lower oil prices decrease it even further?

Well im not a US person so im curious what kind of inflation people here are seeing? Are you seeing it in goods? Or products? Looking at the property and stock markets, there is obvious asset price inflation but what about food price inflation?

[slapass]

Originally Posted by RummyBoy

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/tilma...Gyv1G9Ryw.html

Sorry, I gotta ask this because the government figures seem to indicate nil or very low inflation. Then I see a video like above which tells a totally different story so I wanna ask you guys:

Do you feel that prices are going up?

If so, Is it a creeping increase?

If so, Is it a significant year on year increase?

Where do you see price increases happening most?

I have to say not much. Food and fuel did a nice jump in the last ten years but the rest of it has been pretty steady.

[Rochard]

Gas is down below three dollars. No one is complaining.

[aka123]

Originally Posted by RummyBoy

Sure, inflation is always better than deflation. However, if inflation is way below target (assuming target is around 2%) then wont lower oil prices decrease it even further?

Yes. Although that won't cause the feared kind of deflation, or at least it is kinda hard. It's kinda hard to postpone fueling the car. Although some bigger buyers like industry might do it if they have sufficient stocks. But, biggest players usually lock down the prices with futures.

[Barry-xlovecam]

Inflation is segmented ...

• The price of gasoline is down.
• The prices on computer parts is stable to down.
• The prices of foodstuffs fluxuate but are overall up.
• The prices of homes has recovered a lot but in most places is still down from the peaks in 2006 -- but how often do you buy a home (or other real estate)?
• Rents are up -- they are always up ...

The stated US government figures are manipulated to an average that looks better than it is IMHO. The real inflation rate for everyday consumers is probably in the 4% to 6% annual rate.

[pornguy]

We are currently working on Massive inflation.

Just wait until Burger flippers get 15$ an hour.

[PR_Glen]

are you going to post every single article from that site today?

[slapass]

Originally Posted by pornguy

We are currently working on Massive inflation.

Just wait until Burger flippers get 15$ an hour.

Would solve a lot of issues but would wipe out some old folks savings. So depends on who you like.

[aka123]

Originally Posted by slapass

Would solve a lot of issues but would wipe out some old folks savings. So depends on who you like.

Old folks don't know how to invest?

[MassMarketing]

Gas is under 2.70 a gallon here. But Coffee is up, milk, nuts, etc. They say there is a reason for everything though. Coffee because of a drought in Brazil, same with nuts and fruits, drought in Cali, etc.

[RummyBoy]

Originally Posted by Barry-xlovecam

The stated US government figures are manipulated to an average that looks better than it is IMHO. The real inflation rate for everyday consumers is probably in the 4% to 6% annual rate.

The government may well have a reason for manipulating inflation figures. Inflation reduces the value of debt at as well as, if translated to profits/wages increases tax revenues for the government. You can tax inflation but you cannot tax deflation and hence that's just one reason why inflation is more desirable.

However if you really do have inflation in the US the government has an incentive to show lower inflation because higher inflation would mean interest rates should go up. Increase interest rates soon enough and fast enough to end easy money policy and it will sink the stock market, economy all over again.... although there's talk about raising rates next year, I get a sense that its just talk (to indicate a normalizing economy).

Well, most governments manipulate the figures but 4 -6% is a very substantial amount of inflation and everyone else here seems to believe the government figures, so where do you get that from?

[Barry-xlovecam]

Originally Posted by RummyBoy

[W]ell, most governments manipulate the figures but 4 -6% is a very substantial amount of inflation and everyone else here seems to believe the government figures, so where do you get that from?

The real world?

[Barry-xlovecam]

Shadowstats bears out my estimate BTW
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...flation-charts

[RummyBoy]

Originally Posted by Barry-xlovecam

Shadowstats bears out my estimate BTW
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...flation-charts

Its ok, point taken.

This is John Williams site...... I trust it.

[Barry-xlovecam]

Originally Posted by MassMarketing

Gas is under 2.70 a gallon here. But Coffee is up, milk, nuts, etc. They say there is a reason for everything though. Coffee because of a drought in Brazil, same with nuts and fruits, drought in Cali, etc.

Fruit has more to do with transportation costs I think.
Coffee is always a wild commodity. Coffee retail prices are up 35% right now.
Meat prices have risen 50% in the past year or two -- there was competition by the ethanol production from corn that could be used for cattle/poultry feeds ... Crop yields are up this year in the grain belt but once prices go up they tend to remain high to recoup lost profits (or widen profit margins).