Any real estate investors here? What 2017 holds....

[American Psycho]

What do you see coming for the real estate market?
OFC there are local markets, just wondering about general feelings.

I have a couple rentals and debating getting another.

[brassmonkey]

Originally Posted by American Psycho

What do you see coming for the real estate market?
OFC there are local markets, just wondering about general feelings.

I have a couple rentals and debating getting another.

this is a buyers market! you can get houses for 25 grand! 3 bedrooms 2 1/2 baths

[Paul&John]

Originally Posted by brassmonkey

this is a buyers market! you can get houses for 25 grand! 3 bedrooms 2 1/2 baths

location location location

[CurrentlySober]

I guess you are talking about in the states, but here in the UK its doing fine. I think that once the Brexit vote was done and people realised that it wasn't the end of the world with great plagues and floods being delivered from the heavens it seems very stable.

I'm about to raise the rent on one of my properties at the end of the year by £100 a month, and I'm actually closing on another rental property at the moment. High end, 3 Bed 2.5 baths etc down a lane by a river near a little country pub - Beautiful

[Barry-xlovecam]

Home Prices Are Approaching Record Highs, But S&P/Case-Shiller Says This Isn't A Bubble Set To Blow|Forbes Welcome

REITs look pretty good for the near future and they are more geographically diversified and liquid.

[Joshua G]

terrible time in cycle to buy, near the top. wait for the next recession...its gonna be another 08 since too big to fail is back in the game, & bubbles are back. now that the govt is 20 tril in debt not 10, it might be a doozy of a downturn esp since the fed has no weapons left other than more money printing.

yellens rigging the game is gonna come home to roost. hopefully hilary will win cause its her party that deserves to deal with the shitstorm.

[American Psycho]

History Tells Us That 2016 Will See a Recession | Huffington Post

recession time?

[RummyBoy]

Originally Posted by Joshua G

terrible time in cycle to buy, near the top.

Especially if heavily leveraged.... those people are gonna get slaughtered like 08

[Jigster715]

Originally Posted by Joshua G

terrible time in cycle to buy, near the top. wait for the next recession...its gonna be another 08 since too big to fail is back in the game, & bubbles are back. now that the govt is 20 tril in debt not 10, it might be a doozy of a downturn esp since the fed has no weapons left other than more money printing.

yellens rigging the game is gonna come home to roost. hopefully hilary will win cause its her party that deserves to deal with the shitstorm.

+1

[JFK]

Originally Posted by RummyBoy

Especially if heavily leveraged.... those people are gonna get slaughtered like 08

YUP, Agreed ! It`s a hyper market up here near Toronto, bidding wars, going way over asking, the shits gonna hit the fan soon

[2MuchMark]

Originally Posted by JFK

YUP, Agreed ! It`s a hyper market up here near Toronto, bidding wars, going way over asking, the shits gonna hit the fan soon

I wish I would have bought a few houses in Vancouver about 15 years ago. Now THAT is some crazy shit.

[woj]

Originally Posted by RummyBoy

Especially if heavily leveraged.... those people are gonna get slaughtered like 08

Only real estate flippers get slaughtered, those that make long term investment in cash flow positive real estate are always fine... in the worst case, one may be briefly underwater for a few years, but if the cashflow is paying all the expenses, so what... or am I missing something?

[trevesty]

Originally Posted by woj

Only real estate flippers get slaughtered, those that make long term investment in cash flow positive real estate are always fine... in the worst case, one may be briefly underwater for a few years, but if the cashflow is paying all the expenses, so what... or am I missing something?

that's my understanding as well, but I'm not involved yet... that's just what I get from friends here who've got apartment complexes and "flip" on the side. they're not flipping right now..

[onwebcam]

Originally Posted by woj

Only real estate flippers get slaughtered, those that make long term investment in cash flow positive real estate are always fine... in the worst case, one may be briefly underwater for a few years, but if the cashflow is paying all the expenses, so what... or am I missing something?

Builders get slaughtered as well. Sitting on a development that cant be sold or multiple homes even.


As far as the ops question I can tell you that my town is in for a very rude awakening very soon. Prices here are pretty much double what they were pre-2008. People are paying stupid prices for homes and the only reason they are is because interest rates are low so they can afford to pay more.. They aren't thinking about what the house is going to be worth a few years from now. Only the interest rate. As soon as they sign the paperwork they've lost money. So in 2008 houses were over-priced/valued with higher interest rates but now that rates are low they aren't? It's as if home buying has turned into car buying. Knowing that when you drive it off the lot you've lost. It's no longer an investment. How did they fix 2008? Lowering payments by shaving off the interest. How will they do that when there is no interest to be shaved? This bubble is going to make 2008 look like childs play.

[Barry-xlovecam]

They will never call you to send a plumber ...



2009 $5
2016 High $25

[hottoddy]

I am purposefully renting a home after selling. My local market has been in a bubble and builders have re-started cranking out new housing. There are signs of stress already. Sellers are asking the moon but most end up reducing prices several times before finding a buyer. I will reassess in about 6 months but think home prices will continue downward.

[CurrentlySober]

Originally Posted by CurrentlySober

I guess you are talking about in the states, but here in the UK its doing fine. I think that once the Brexit vote was done and people realised that it wasn't the end of the world with great plagues and floods being delivered from the heavens it seems very stable.

I'm about to raise the rent on one of my properties at the end of the year by £100 a month, and I'm actually closing on another rental property at the moment. High end, 3 Bed 2.5 baths etc down a lane by a river near a little country pub - Beautiful

You couldnt make this shit up! I've just closed / exchanged contracts and I tale a look at the online log that tells me whats happened and who dealt with it for me...

Check out the girls name that closed on my new house !



Classic ! See, its NOT just a GFY thing - Poo follows me into my real life as well

[American Psycho]

Originally Posted by Barry-xlovecam

They will never call you to send a plumber ...



2009 $5
2016 High $25

whats that mean exactly?

[woj]

Originally Posted by American Psycho

whats that mean exactly?

that someone who invested in REITs in 2007, almost a DECADE later, would still have lost HALF his investment...


... but really, REIT (real estate investment trust), is just an alternative way to invest in real estate, you buy shares in the trust that buys loads of real estate, apartment buildings, office buildings, etc, and you get a share of all the profits generated...

it's just like buying stock in a company that happens to invest in real estate... (there are some subtle differences between REIT and normal stock, but not really relevant to most investors)...

so in theory you get many of the benefits of investing in real estate, without any of the drama...

[American Psycho]

Originally Posted by woj

that someone who invested in REITs in 2007, almost a DECADE later, would still have lost HALF his investment...


... but really, REIT (real estate investment trust), is just an alternative way to invest in real estate, you buy shares in the trust that buys loads of real estate, apartment buildings, office buildings, etc, and you get a share of all the profits generated...

it's just like buying stock in a company that happens to invest in real estate... (there are some subtle differences between REIT and normal stock, but not really relevant to most investors)...

so in theory you get many of the benefits of investing in real estate, without any of the drama...

thanks. clear now.
you seem to have a good handle on rei. you involved?

[Barry-xlovecam]

Everyone lost equity in RE in 2008 ...

Point is LIQUIDITY -- if you are able to get out before the shit hits the fans.

I doubt you will ever see as much real appreciation in Real Estate again notwithstanding a serious RE market crash again. Meantime, in the past 5 years a lot of money was made.

[NALEM]

Prior to 2008, when I was living in the US more, I had investments in rental properties close to Universities. We had a strong contract, high deposit, low rent, and accepted the fact that the houses will be shared between 4 and 6 students.

I agree with Barry about liquidity. Assume that the local economy takes a hit, and for one reason or another, your properties remain vacant for an extended period. Always have enough cash around to cover your expenses for at least a year.

[onwebcam]

They're Back -- CDOs with a New Name, But under the same old Management

Shadow banking increases the risk of another global financial crisis | catchnews

[slapass]

I would check your downtown. We have tons of apartments going up here. Even if you are not in that area or type of rental it tends to depress rent increases going forward. I don't see a bright future for rental as we ALWAYS over do it.

Having said that I recently bought into 200 units so maybe this is just buyer's remorse.

[Vendot]

Originally Posted by Barry-xlovecam

Everyone lost equity in RE in 2008 ...

And there's nothing worse than paying off a mortgage on a property you've already sold (ie negative equity). It just amazes me how many people don't understand this very simple concept.

Basically real estate, in most countries, right now is in a bubble.

The other guy mentioned Vancouver. The property market there has been collapsing and the all the speculators (mainly Chinese money) have shifted their attention to Toronto where another bubble is developing.

What people don't realise is that real estate world wide is in a complete bubble funded QE and a very low cost of borrowing in the MAJORS (UK, US, EU etc) not to mention shadow banking in China where, many of my friends in China are involved in the shadow loans industry in one form or another.

Now WOJ says long term real estate is fine. Sure thing, real estate is a good play, a hard asset and it always will outperform inflation so if you're cash down and you don't need to get leveraged to the hilt then fine because maybe you're not bothered if the value falls.

However, at this point in the cycle I would stay away from it. Not to mention that with all the banking issues of the last few weeks, things are beginning to look like 2008 all over again. This is the best time on earth to be in cash right now because almost everything is in a bubble and when it pops, there'll be bargains for those with dry powder at hand.

[buyandsell]

good time to refinance!

[buyandsell]

I always look at cashflow and not appreciation. What I'm wondering about is how much rents went up in past years - I see people in my area paying more money for apartment buildings than makes sense to me. Then they do a bit of work and try to jack the rents up. So I guess they are basing their buy numbers off rent hikes and I wonder how sustainable that is?

[Paul Markham]

Here the market is rock solid, should the UK start to limit Chech migration it will climb faster.

[Vendot]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

Here the market is rock solid, should the UK start to limit Chech migration it will climb faster.

It is? I've seen mixed messages on UK property but its a bubble over there too (overall)...

Brexit uncertainty and summer slowdown prompt fall in UK house prices | The Independent

UK residential property prices and transactions drop | Money Observer

House prices 'to fall 30%' | Daily Mail Online