Does anyone really think real estate will go down in SoCal? - GoFuckYourself.com

chaze · 10-09-2005, 10:38 PM

Over the next couple years, or will it keep going up forever.

Seriously what do you think about it?

munki · 10-09-2005, 10:40 PM

I've been hearing some valid arguments on both sides... I can't expect that the market will continue its undaunted inflation... but I don't see prices coming down anytime soon. Speculative buying is slowly seeing a steady decline, rebalancing the market.

chaze · 10-09-2005, 10:47 PM

Would you recomend renting for a year at this point in the OC or buying since the differance in paying rent is more then what house prices might drop.

Basically $1500 amonth x12 = 18000

Do you think houses might drop more then 18000 in a year from now?

munki · 10-09-2005, 10:49 PM

I don't see a drop happening in this area any time soon... Very little real estate left to develop, and everyone wants to come here now it seems. Come rent and join the party though!

Rebecca Love · 10-09-2005, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chaze

Would you recomend renting for a year at this point in the OC or buying since the differance in paying rent is more then what house prices might drop.

Basically $1500 amonth x12 = 18000

Do you think houses might drop more then 18000 in a year from now?

You would make that up easily just for the tax shelter.....

wzl · 10-09-2005, 11:05 PM

I'm a real estate broker based in Irvine [blatant spam: hit me up and I'll give ya a good deal ;-)] .... and this is the most frequently asked question.

Disclaimer: I do not have a crystal ball. What I say here is just my opinion based on the research that has been made available to me by reputable sources.

This is information from the California Association of Realtors winter meetings in San Diego. The projection for the remainder of this year and moving into 2006, for California, is a slight drop in total number of sales, but a continued increase in Sales Price.

Interest Rates are projected to finish 2006 at 6.4 %. Thus, no real big moves in interest rates. NO BUBBLE!! Still a great market as we move forward.

Mako · 10-09-2005, 11:08 PM

No.

Quite simply put: People don't want to commute to white-collar jobs in Orange County. So instead of sucking it up and living in Riverside, they straddle themselves with a 5-year ARM mortgage on a $1M 2,300sqft house in Irvine/Costa Mesa/Tustin Ranch.

Even if rates were to dramatically rise, it wouldn't affect appreciation rates that much. Would definitely take longer to sell however, so plan ahead.

rickholio · 10-09-2005, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wzl

I'm a real estate broker based in Irvine [blatant spam: hit me up and I'll give ya a good deal ;-)] .... and this is the most frequently asked question.

Disclaimer: I do not have a crystal ball. What I say here is just my opinion based on the research that has been made available to me by reputable sources.

This is information from the California Association of Realtors winter meetings in San Diego. The projection for the remainder of this year and moving into 2006, for California, is a slight drop in total number of sales, but a continued increase in Sales Price.

Interest Rates are projected to finish 2006 at 6.4 %. Thus, no real big moves in interest rates. NO BUBBLE!! Still a great market as we move forward.

What rate is that based on? Prime, or 20 year treasury bond, or...?

'Cuz I don't know if you've noticed, but Greenspan and basically every other federal bank head has started a greek chorus about the spectre of inflation. I guess they just now figured out that fuel price increases are going to filter through the supply chain and have real impact on peoples lives. Upshot being, Chmn. "Bubbles" Greenspan's rate increases are gonna come and if the inflationary forces are more extreme than anticipated, they're gonna come in larger than quarter point increases.

KRL · 10-09-2005, 11:41 PM

It might not go down, but it certainly can't continue at a pace of escalation that significantly exceeds the corresponding growth in personal income.

In economics there is point where growth can no longer be sustained if other factors aren't at the same pace.

10-09-2005, 10:38 PM	#1
chaze Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 9,752	Does anyone really think real estate will go down in SoCal? Over the next couple years, or will it keep going up forever. Seriously what do you think about it? Last edited by chaze; 10-09-2005 at 10:39 PM..

10-09-2005, 10:40 PM	#2
munki Do Fun Shit. Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: OC Posts: 13,393	I've been hearing some valid arguments on both sides... I can't expect that the market will continue its undaunted inflation... but I don't see prices coming down anytime soon. Speculative buying is slowly seeing a steady decline, rebalancing the market. __________________ “I have the simplest tastes. I am always satisfied with the best.” -Oscar Wilde

10-09-2005, 10:49 PM	#4
munki Do Fun Shit. Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: OC Posts: 13,393	I don't see a drop happening in this area any time soon... Very little real estate left to develop, and everyone wants to come here now it seems. Come rent and join the party though! __________________ “I have the simplest tastes. I am always satisfied with the best.” -Oscar Wilde

10-09-2005, 11:05 PM	#6
wzl Registered User Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Irvine Posts: 80	I'm a real estate broker based in Irvine [blatant spam: hit me up and I'll give ya a good deal ;-)] .... and this is the most frequently asked question. Disclaimer: I do not have a crystal ball. What I say here is just my opinion based on the research that has been made available to me by reputable sources. This is information from the California Association of Realtors winter meetings in San Diego. The projection for the remainder of this year and moving into 2006, for California, is a slight drop in total number of sales, but a continued increase in Sales Price. Interest Rates are projected to finish 2006 at 6.4 %. Thus, no real big moves in interest rates. NO BUBBLE!! Still a great market as we move forward. __________________ ICQ 346-074-400

10-09-2005, 11:08 PM	#7
Mako Confirmed User Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: The OC baby! Posts: 1,986	No. Quite simply put: People don't want to commute to white-collar jobs in Orange County. So instead of sucking it up and living in Riverside, they straddle themselves with a 5-year ARM mortgage on a $1M 2,300sqft house in Irvine/Costa Mesa/Tustin Ranch. Even if rates were to dramatically rise, it wouldn't affect appreciation rates that much. Would definitely take longer to sell however, so plan ahead. __________________

10-09-2005, 10:47 PM	#3
chaze Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 9,752	Would you recomend renting for a year at this point in the OC or buying since the differance in paying rent is more then what house prices might drop. Basically $1500 amonth x12 = 18000 Do you think houses might drop more then 18000 in a year from now?

10-09-2005, 11:41 PM	#9
KRL Entrepreneur Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: USA Posts: 31,429	It might not go down, but it certainly can't continue at a pace of escalation that significantly exceeds the corresponding growth in personal income. In economics there is point where growth can no longer be sustained if other factors aren't at the same pace. __________________ If you would like to develop your domains, you can lease inexpensive foreign labor from the leaders in the field at iWebmasters.com TO LOWER YOUR COSTS AND INCREASE YOUR PRODUCTION! * * * * * * * * * * * * Domains Adult News KRL's Newsletter Biz Tips Just Listed Domains