Mccain moves into lead 48-47 - GoFuckYourself.com

thehand · 10-31-2008, 10:56 PM

In a poll coming out tomorrow - just reported here: http://www.drudgereport.com/

After Shock Media · 10-31-2008, 10:57 PM

Glad this was not posted before along with a full discussion on it - still on the front page.
That would be embarrasing.

After Shock Media · 10-31-2008, 10:59 PM

To be fair, yes I know it is not in a thread title- but come on

Like Mccain, Obama, or any news source could fart and it not be on here in nanoseconds.

thehand · 10-31-2008, 11:01 PM

I saw it on the news, figured it was interesting, is it not? I didn't miss quote it , did i?

After Shock Media · 10-31-2008, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thehand

I saw it on the news, figured it was interesting, is it not? I didn't miss quote it , did i?

Nah you did not miss quote it.
It is just a questionable poll in how they do it, interpret results etc.

thehand · 10-31-2008, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by After Shock Media

Nah you did not miss quote it.
It is just a questionable poll in how they do it, interpret results etc.

Agreed, but i wont be surprised if this is a new trend. That goptrust.com group is throwing 6million in to TV adds this weekend.

CheeseFrog · 10-31-2008, 11:14 PM

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com explains it best:

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

pocketkangaroo · 10-31-2008, 11:18 PM

His party ID weighting is fucked up. He weighs his results based on 2004 party registrations. It has changed a lot since then.

Malicious Biz · 10-31-2008, 11:26 PM

McCain has it in the bag

After Shock Media · 10-31-2008, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malicious Biz

McCain has it in the bag

I agree. He deffinatly has placed his campaign into a body bag.

Should know better than to reply to fake nicks. I just hate these polls on both sides.

10-31-2008, 10:56 PM	#1
thehand 235 Pound Gorilla Industry Role: Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Valhalla Posts: 3,467	Mccain moves into lead 48-47 In a poll coming out tomorrow - just reported here: http://www.drudgereport.com/ __________________ Tim Siner Who the Fu#k is TimSiner?

10-31-2008, 10:57 PM	#2
After Shock Media It's coming look busy Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: "Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn". Posts: 35,299	Glad this was not posted before along with a full discussion on it - still on the front page. That would be embarrasing. __________________ [email protected] ICQ:135982156 AIM: Aftershockmed1a MSN: [email protected]

10-31-2008, 10:59 PM	#3
After Shock Media It's coming look busy Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: "Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn". Posts: 35,299	To be fair, yes I know it is not in a thread title- but come on Like Mccain, Obama, or any news source could fart and it not be on here in nanoseconds. __________________ [email protected] ICQ:135982156 AIM: Aftershockmed1a MSN: [email protected]

10-31-2008, 11:01 PM	#4
thehand 235 Pound Gorilla Industry Role: Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Valhalla Posts: 3,467	I saw it on the news, figured it was interesting, is it not? I didn't miss quote it , did i? __________________ Tim Siner Who the Fu#k is TimSiner?

10-31-2008, 11:14 PM	#7
CheeseFrog Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: AZ Posts: 1,724	Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com explains it best: Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point. There are a couple of significant problems with this. Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error. Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do. Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers. Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much). __________________ Cary \| AIM: cheesefrog \| ICQ: 4287002

10-31-2008, 11:18 PM	#8
pocketkangaroo Confirmed User Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 8,452	His party ID weighting is fucked up. He weighs his results based on 2004 party registrations. It has changed a lot since then.

10-31-2008, 11:26 PM	#9
Malicious Biz So Fucking Banned Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Put Shoe On Head Plz Posts: 4,575	McCain has it in the bag