Any predictions for the upcoming job numbers? - GoFuckYourself.com

After Shock Media · 11-06-2008, 06:02 PM

I know they are due out very soon, anyone want to ventue any guesses.

GotGauge · 11-06-2008, 08:04 PM

I think it is 6.1% now, I am going to guess 6.9%. Next month will be even worse, job loss is now hitting hard here in the heartland.

Keep in mind these numbers are for the people that filed for unemployment, doesn't count the ones that didn't. (so I have been told)

F-U-Jimmy · 11-06-2008, 08:10 PM

6.75%

tony286 · 11-06-2008, 08:15 PM

i heard friday it will be over 200k lost their jobs. i figure tomorrow the market is going to dump hard

Ron Bennett · 11-06-2008, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GotGauge

...Keep in mind these numbers are for the people that filed for unemployment, doesn't count the ones that didn't. (so I have been told)

Yep, the stated number is highly deceptive. The real unemployment rate is upwards of several percentage points higher, depending on the area of the country, than the stated number.

Add in severely (ie. grossing under $200 per week) "underemployed" people, and the unemployment picture is even worse.

Ron

GetSCORECash · 11-06-2008, 08:35 PM

My Mom works for Children and Families here in Miami, and it will be bad. More and more people pleading to get assistance...

But something that isn't figured in, is the unreported income that goes on here in South Florida.

pr0 · 11-06-2008, 09:29 PM

I think we'll see a level-off.....I'm saying it remains unchanged

And by the end of November we'll be + .5%

EscortBiz · 11-06-2008, 09:33 PM

feb 09 expect 9%+

clubchics · 11-06-2008, 09:43 PM

FROM FOREX
Research Note: October US NFP Employment Report
Summary Outlook: (November 6, 2008) We are expecting a worse than consensus NFP job loss of -240/-270K (consensus -200K) and a larger increase in the unemployment rate to 6.4% (consensus 6.3%). We expect the market to react negatively, with stocks coming under renewed pressure and the USD also moving lower. JPY-crosses (e.g. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY) should also see additional weakness.

Trading Strategy: In line with our expectations of a weaker than forecast NFP/higher unemployment rate, we expect the USD to come under intensified selling pressure. But since the JPY-crosses are also likely to be under pressure on stock market weakness, we think USD/JPY may bear the brunt of overall USD selling. We would look to go into the NFP short USD/JPY, with orders to sell EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD placed about 80-130 pips above pre-NFP levels, to capture any knee-jerk bounces in those USD pairs (stop loss 50 pips beyond short entry). Our view is that after an initial USD negative reaction to the headline data, JPY-cross selling will overwhelm and see those pairs come back under pressure and begin to move lower. If our expectations for a weaker-than-consensus report are met, the primary risk to our strategy is that the market response is solely USD negative, and that EUR, GBP and AUD grind higher on the day, as the USD is sold across the board.

Data Analysis: The consensus estimates are for the unemployment rate to increase to 6.3% from 6.1% and for nonfarm payrolls to decline a sharp -200K in October, on the heels of a -159K drop the prior month. We think both are likely to disappoint to the downside. Our unemployment rate model which factors in the Conference Board's labor differential for the month (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get) and the four-week moving average in claims suggests we will see an unemployment rate closer to 6.4% in October. In terms of the change in payrolls, we are looking for a result between -240K and -270K. Continuing jobless claims through the October survey period are running about 190K higher on average versus last month. Meanwhile, the ADP employment report which has underestimated payrolls by about -85k per month on average this year, showed a decline of -157K for the month. Thus the current data we have in hand point overwhelmingly to a downside surprise.

11-06-2008, 06:02 PM	#1
After Shock Media It's coming look busy Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: "Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn". Posts: 35,299	Any predictions for the upcoming job numbers? I know they are due out very soon, anyone want to ventue any guesses. __________________ [email protected] ICQ:135982156 AIM: Aftershockmed1a MSN: [email protected]

11-06-2008, 08:04 PM	#2
GotGauge Confirmed User Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: USA Posts: 3,072	I think it is 6.1% now, I am going to guess 6.9%. Next month will be even worse, job loss is now hitting hard here in the heartland. Keep in mind these numbers are for the people that filed for unemployment, doesn't count the ones that didn't. (so I have been told) __________________ ICQ 22264474 [email protected]

11-06-2008, 08:10 PM	#3
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11-06-2008, 08:35 PM	#6
GetSCORECash Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Miami Posts: 5,527	My Mom works for Children and Families here in Miami, and it will be bad. More and more people pleading to get assistance... But something that isn't figured in, is the unreported income that goes on here in South Florida. __________________ \| skype: getscorecash \| ICQ: 59-271-063 \| New Sites: \| SCORELAND2 \| Roku Channel SCORETV.TV \| 60PLUSMILFS \| \| Big Tit Hooker \| Tits And Tugs \| Big Boobs POV \| Karla James \| \| Naughty Foot Jobs \| Linsey's World \| Busty Arianna Sinn \| Get SCORE Cash \|

11-06-2008, 09:29 PM	#7
pr0 rockin tha trailerpark Industry Role: Join Date: May 2001 Location: ~Coastal~ Posts: 23,088	I think we'll see a level-off.....I'm saying it remains unchanged And by the end of November we'll be + .5% __________________ __________ Loadedca$h - get sum! - Revengebucks - mmm rebills! - webair (gotz sErVrz)

11-06-2008, 08:15 PM	#4
tony286 lurker Industry Role: Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: atlanta Posts: 57,021	i heard friday it will be over 200k lost their jobs. i figure tomorrow the market is going to dump hard

11-06-2008, 09:33 PM	#8
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11-06-2008, 09:43 PM	#9
clubchics Confirmed User Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 739	FROM FOREX Research Note: October US NFP Employment Report Summary Outlook: (November 6, 2008) We are expecting a worse than consensus NFP job loss of -240/-270K (consensus -200K) and a larger increase in the unemployment rate to 6.4% (consensus 6.3%). We expect the market to react negatively, with stocks coming under renewed pressure and the USD also moving lower. JPY-crosses (e.g. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY) should also see additional weakness. Trading Strategy: In line with our expectations of a weaker than forecast NFP/higher unemployment rate, we expect the USD to come under intensified selling pressure. But since the JPY-crosses are also likely to be under pressure on stock market weakness, we think USD/JPY may bear the brunt of overall USD selling. We would look to go into the NFP short USD/JPY, with orders to sell EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD placed about 80-130 pips above pre-NFP levels, to capture any knee-jerk bounces in those USD pairs (stop loss 50 pips beyond short entry). Our view is that after an initial USD negative reaction to the headline data, JPY-cross selling will overwhelm and see those pairs come back under pressure and begin to move lower. If our expectations for a weaker-than-consensus report are met, the primary risk to our strategy is that the market response is solely USD negative, and that EUR, GBP and AUD grind higher on the day, as the USD is sold across the board. Data Analysis: The consensus estimates are for the unemployment rate to increase to 6.3% from 6.1% and for nonfarm payrolls to decline a sharp -200K in October, on the heels of a -159K drop the prior month. We think both are likely to disappoint to the downside. Our unemployment rate model which factors in the Conference Board's labor differential for the month (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get) and the four-week moving average in claims suggests we will see an unemployment rate closer to 6.4% in October. In terms of the change in payrolls, we are looking for a result between -240K and -270K. Continuing jobless claims through the October survey period are running about 190K higher on average versus last month. Meanwhile, the ADP employment report which has underestimated payrolls by about -85k per month on average this year, showed a decline of -157K for the month. Thus the current data we have in hand point overwhelmingly to a downside surprise. __________________ www.BoostUltra.com ICQ ME: 55112653 AIM: CAZEY43 EMAIL: [email protected]