Will The Market Drop 25-50% ? - Source CNBC

[MovieMaster]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32417835

By: JeeYeon Park
News Associate

Dan Deighan, founder of Deighan Financial Advisors, and Rob Stein, managing partner at Astor Asset Management, explained their positions on the economy and shared their market outlooks. (See their sector recommendations, below.)

Markets will drop 25 to 50 percent and it will happen abruptly, Deighan told CNBC.

?There?s no basic foundation for the run-up we?ve had, been far too rapid. It continues to run up on what?s normally considered bad news,? he said.

Deighan said in the past, Wall Street ?shoved things down Main Street?s throat.? And now, he believes, "Washington" is trying to do the same. Main Street is slowly finding out "what?s going on with the banks, health care and the Federal Reserve?s moves" and they are ?absolutely angry.?

* Pisani: Where's the Market Floor?

?None of this stuff is positive, and Americans are very angry in addition to being scared?a very dangerous combination,? he said.

More Market Insights:

* We Are in a Semi-Depression: Nightingale
*

Expect 'U-Shaped' Market Bottom: Strategist

In the meantime, Stein said he doesn?t expect a sharp drop in the markets, and predicts stocks will trade at the current levels for at least several months.

?I actually think we?re going nowhere,? said Stein. ?These are going to be the levels that we trade at 5 percent around here for several months, if not for the rest of the year."

Stein said the economy is experiencing two types of recessions: the traditional inventory and unemployment recession, and another based on the credit crisis.

?The inventory/unemployment one is starting to abate and we?re starting to grow," he said. "I think the growth from this in 2010 will surprise everyone on the upside?and then when the credit crisis comes back again, it won?t be as doom and gloom.?

Deighan?s Picks:

Food

Shelter

Health Care

Energy

Transportation

Pharmaceuticals

Bank Branches

Gold Bullion

* Track Gold Prices Here

Stein?s Picks:

Technology

Health Care

Energy

Stein?s Pans:

Financials

______________________________

Disclosure:

No immediate information was available for Deighan or Stein.

[spunkmaster]

None of them have a fucking clue.

Back in march they said Bank of America was toast - they were all saying sell, sell, sell and it went down to $3 - $4 and now is up to $13 or something ?

[pamon]

so now Deighan Financial Advisors and the other one is saying this so they get a ton of press and new clients. just like the analysts who issue dumb stmts to sell their analyst reports for $X,XXX dollars each. No one knows where this economy is going.

[kane]

So one guy says the market will drop and another guy says it won't. Who needs an expert, I could get that kind of advice on GFY

[Mr. Billy]

I don't really like the logic in the interview. One of them says that the market is rising even with bad economic news and I think that is stretching it a bit. I think that the news is not all that bad at the moment. Also, I think we are in a somewhat predictable situation now with much of the economic weakness already factored into the market as it is priced today.

It is quite possible that people will make statements hoping to create ripples in the day to day pricing of equities, but I don't really know if they are doing that or not.

[teomaxxx]

Originally Posted by spunkmaster

None of them have a fucking clue.

Back in march they said Bank of America was toast - they were all saying sell, sell, sell and it went down to $3 - $4 and now is up to $13 or something ?

its toast anyway, but in longer run.
the changes in M2M accounting saved their ass. so banks can pretend that their loans are worth more then they are.

[kane]

Originally Posted by Mr. Billy

I don't really like the logic in the interview. One of them says that the market is rising even with bad economic news and I think that is stretching it a bit. I think that the news is not all that bad at the moment. Also, I think we are in a somewhat predictable situation now with much of the economic weakness already factored into the market as it is priced today.

It is quite possible that people will make statements hoping to create ripples in the day to day pricing of equities, but I don't really know if they are doing that or not.

I have often wondered that myself. If an adviser has a lot of clients in positions to make some big gains from a market decline they could go on a few shows and say that they think the news is terrible ad that the market will go down and just that information could be cause enough to make enough people nervous that it actually does go down some.

[Boobzooka]

Originally Posted by Mr. Billy

It is quite possible that people will make statements hoping to create ripples in the day to day pricing of equities, but I don't really know if they are doing that or not.

Originally Posted by kane

I have often wondered that myself. If an adviser has a lot of clients in positions to make some big gains from a market decline they could go on a few shows and say that they think the news is terrible ad that the market will go down and just that information could be cause enough to make enough people nervous that it actually does go down some.

This is standard practice. Go on TV saying one thing, while simultaneously sending out newsletters to paid subscribers to act in the opposite direction. Not illegal, and media outlets don't call anyone out for doing it; they even pay the shills for their appearance.

[kane]

Originally Posted by Boobzooka

This is standard practice. Go on TV saying one thing, while simultaneously sending out newsletters to paid subscribers to act in the opposite direction. Not illegal, and media outlets don't call anyone out for doing it; they even pay the shills for their appearance.

I loved when John Stewart tore into Jim Crammer for doing something like this.

[raven1083]

nice find thanks for sharing this one.

[seeandsee]

Originally Posted by spunkmaster

None of them have a fucking clue.

Back in march they said Bank of America was toast - they were all saying sell, sell, sell and it went down to $3 - $4 and now is up to $13 or something ?

nice move BOA!

[IllTestYourGirls]

The nbc networks are nothing more than white house propaganda machine. I dont believe a word cnbc or msnbc have to say.

[GatorB]

Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls

The nbc networks are nothing more than white house propaganda machine. I dont believe a word cnbc or msnbc have to say.

I guess Faux News is more your style.

[EscortBiz]

Some people need to stop and understand that when someone makes a prediction about the market hes addressing those with a medium - long term investment goal.

See a person who day trades can get hurt but only to a certain point, yet a swing trader or those with money in the market but will need it within 1-3 years can get slaughtered.

So when a doctor tells a guy "hey if you don’t stop popping pills you will fuck your kidney up" or "if you don’t stop smoking you will fuck your lungs up" and a day or month goes by and the guy is still alive and well does that mean the doctor is a fool a idiot and a doomsday type guy?

See when you take away all the smoke and mirrors the situation doesn't look right and yet no one learned from the housing bubble at all.

Why did housing prices sky rocket?

Because there was easy money out there, and when you offer most people money they will take it and not give a shit about not being able to pay back, once reality hit and easy money ran out the pull back was dramatic and fast.

So yeah many started predicting a housing crash back in late 04, where they fools? No, they simply saw it for what it is.

So we now have a situation where the gov gave people 4k+ or so towards buying a new car from companies the gov already gave billions to stay in business. So would you say a increase in car sales means the consumer is now healthier and everything is great? Would you say the car companies are now good to go? Or do you say wait it only went up because easy money and in a year from now with the cash they burn they will need more money? And the majority type of people who turned in their clinkers are the type that once they have a car they keep it for many years?

How is the employment rate really doing? How about the underemployment rate?

How about housing, realtors claim they cant keep up with the demand and you should call them now yet we see owners reducing their prices all the time?

With the huge amount of commercial space available and tons more retailers closing shop are you sure we are not about to see a commercial real estate collapse?

What about those with loans due to reset and those with 7 year option ARMS, do you really think we won’t see a new wave of bad loans soon?

And for those who buy gold stocks or gold are you trading it or holding on to it for when the dollar crashes?

If you are trading it ok I understand you buy low sell high, but for those holding on to it when the dollar crashes could you explain to me exactly how you will turn those gold stocks or bars into cash even remotely to what you paid for it? Isn’t it better to buy those gold coins that have chocolate in the middle so at least when things crash you have what to eat?

Remember not to long ago when the gov said we will hire millions of people to redo the roads, right now if you have a crew of 10 working on a road traffic is backed up for hours, how will anyone get anywhere with millions of road workers redoing the highways?

How about the idea of creating jobs by changing all light bulbs in schools? It sounds great doesn’t it? But what will those people do once they are done changing those bulbs?

I can go on and on all day and night how people are just sheep and repeat shit without thinking what they are saying.

The bottom line is the careless reckless consumer created this mess, the same consumer that shoves all types of pills down their throat because it feels good now the same consumer that eats junk because it tastes good now these same people said “sign me up for this home and refinance plan because it will make me happy now”. Only the consumer will solve this by working and saving and starting to rebuild things right. I can only hope that this will rebuild things better as people will understand work and savings, vs. overextending their credit.

Then again maybe now is the time to buy because when things turn around it will be so quick that you won’t be able to get in? In that case are you sure the money you are investing is cash you can have sit in the market long term?

Here is another thing to think about, everyone now when it comes to the topic of the housing bubble is quick to say "what the heck where these bankers and experts thinking?" Well ask yourself what are we doing right now that those very experts are behind that we will soon be yelling "what the hell where they thinking?"

[MovieMaster]

I always thought the market is overpriced still in alot of areas and this wouldn't surprise me at all... Not sure in terms of drop % but definitely a drop I think is coming just how hard.

[MovieMaster]

Here we go!


http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/17/mark...ion=2009081709

[Mr. Cool Ice]

Originally Posted by spunkmaster

None of them have a fucking clue.

Whew. At least the pornographers have it all figured out.

Hey, you every think of getting a better job? You're probably too good to be working in smut.

[Choopa Phil]

the same people who predict the weather predict this crap...cmon

[MovieMaster]

People laughed at peter schiff when he said we were gonna be fucked in 2006 and everyone laughed at him too..

[hypedough]

This run has to stop at some point doesn't it?