Bladewire

More great news today

Trump's base has shrunk much more than anticipated.

20% of Trump supporters say they will not vote Trump in 2020

At the top, the new NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll isn’t great news for President Trump’s reelection prospects.

The pollsters asked Americans if they planned to vote for Trump’s reelection in 2020, and only 30 percent of respondents said they definitely planned to. More worrisome for the president: 57 percent said they definitely wouldn’t back his candidacy.

Broken out by party, the results were about what you’d expect: Nearly all Democrats said they would vote against him, and the majority of Republicans said they would back him. But those numbers show more weakness for Trump than you might at first assume.

In broad strokes, having 57 percent of the country vote against you isn’t necessarily prohibitive, depending on where the votes are distributed. After all, Trump got only 46 percent of the vote when he won last time, thanks to slipping past Hillary Clinton in key states to earn an electoral college victory. Bill Clinton won election in 1992 with only 43 percent of the vote, but of course, that was a function of a strong third-party candidate.

So why are the numbers above bad for Trump? Consider the distribution of support for his candidacy by party in 2016, as determined by exit polls.

Across the board, Trump has a lower percentage of people saying they’ll definitely vote for him than he got in 2016. Part of that may be a general drop in support for Trump — but part of it, too, is that in the Marist poll we’re comparing Trump to an unknown Democratic candidate. It’s understandable that there would be some uncertainty about making that choice.

What’s much more important is the discrepancy marked with the outlined box above. Trump got 46 percent of the independent vote in 2016 to Clinton’s 42 percent. Now, 62 percent of independents already say that they won’t vote for him.

Trump’s win among independents (and overall) was in part a function of a kind of unpopularity he shared with Clinton. Trump was the preferred candidate among voters who disliked both major-party candidates, many of whom were independents. In 2020, he may get an opponent who ends up as unpopular as he is, but even if he does, it seems less likely that he’ll get the benefit of the doubt from people skeptical about both of them.

So now we come to the coup de grace. Among Trump supporters, only about three-quarters say they will definitely vote for him. Nearly 20 percent of his supporters say they’re unsure whether they’ll back him, about the same as the percentage of Republicans who say that.

Rochard

LOL. Seventy percent of Republicans will vote for Trump again... Seventy percent of Republicans will vote for the most unpopular president in our lifetime, the same one who is under investigation for treason.

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Axeman

Certainly possible, but for that to happen the Dems better pick their candidate wisely. Give that middle an easy path to go to.

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King Mark

Lol @ Trump's new deal to end the shut down. Bro. This man is nuts.

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Sarn

Time for Trump to turns on America into a monarchy!
Election is absolutely not necessary for the MAGA thing))

beerptrol

I wouldn't trust those 20%. They say one thing and then do the opposite!

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GAMEFINEST

This guy is dumb, his actions are even dumber

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pimpmaster9000

Pooty will fix this...

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bronco67

Can we get 100% of them to all jump in front of train at 12:35PM tomorrow?

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Acepimp

BladeLiar, how much are you getting paid to post unAmerican hate-threads every day? Have you told your handlers that we are onto you?

Silencing ALL opposition voices: Inside The Media Matters Playbook


Serious question- why? The president has done nothing wrong and is doing a great job.

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bronco67

remember where you need to be tomorrow.

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Sarn

Bladewire

Trump has lost so much of his base.

Is Trump purposely trying to lose his base so that he will not be re-elected? Maybe Trump doesn't want to spend the final years of his life working and living in the White House lol

OneHungLo

Since elected and right up till today, he is the most popular Republican President EVER. Yes the most popular president in the history of the Republican party. Even with 95% of the media constantly putting out FAKE NEWS stories every day. It’s kind of like this board with your feeble minded attempts to hurt the president with fake news, you’ve more than likely switched some voters in his favor. Let that sink in.

TwinCities

I stopped believing polls after the 2016 election because DATA DOESN'T VOTE. People vote and Trump is a business guy. Business guys find whatever bullshit people are willing to buy, and then they it to them! He will hone right in on the lack of curiosity and desire for truth the rubes. gullible senior citizens, and high school dropouts have, then SELL it to them for 2020!

thommy

even when his base is still with him - he will definately not survive the next election.
and this is NOT because of his base and NOT because of the democrats (bacause they anyways didn´t vote for him)

his problem are those millions that did not vote because they believed the polls.
many of them did not want hillary - but never would vote PRO trump.
they will not believe in polls anymore - they will go to vote and THIS weapon
will eliminate him.

all this people will go to the next election and whatever other option than trump is available they will vote for it.
so it can be a green duck with titts or a donkey or a stone.
trump is the reason for a new president in 2020.
he does not even need a lot of money for a campaign - trump paid this campaign budget for him already.

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Rochard

What's really strange is not one of my friends who support Trump during the election "loudly" now are very silent about politics....

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Acepimp

None of you clueless leftists can even explain why Trump is so bad. It's pathetic and you're all insane / gullible / easily duped.

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ilnjscb

This makes sense. Many people believed those fat useless turds on "Young Turks" or whatever the fuck those idiots call themselves. They thought Clinton had it, so they saw no reason to vote. As we saw at the midterms, that is over. There won't be complacency this time around. Ironically, the arrogant fools at Huffington and all the people who thought that writing jokes on the internet is the same as voting are who lost that election. Thankfully in the midterms, people worked and got out and voted.

tfto

thommy

Ironically there was nobody except Putin that helepd trump that much as Comey.
When he came with this new Hillary investigation just a few days before the elections.

that made the change in the last minute but it did not have any effect at the polls anymore.

and that helped to keep all those at home who would NOT vote vor hillary but AGAINST trump.

and this is a HUGE number of people - actually they are more than the voters.

and as they did not go to vote it shows you already that they are not in the trump fanbae. because THEY knew that every single vote is nessercary.
and without garrymandering he would also not win. don´t forget that he had in all those circumstances already 3 million less votes than hillary.

so no - he have no chance to go through a next election. and democrats will sit that out. they will give him a fuck instead money for his stupid wall - they let people feel how far trump is willing to go and what it means when a political dickhead that does not even include the possibility that democrats will block him sits on a word like "i will take responsability" - now he can show HOW he will take that.

with this shutdown he made one of the biggest mistakes ever for his own career.
all the other mistakes are not to feel and to see that fast.
to make such a mistake that have a lightning-fast effect you see already that he never thinks about any consequences or longer term.

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Bladewire

Trump is toast

The government shutting down is the epitome of Trump failing to do his job and failure to protect the country as DHS, FEMA & FDA are all furloughed.

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seeandsee

50% hillary voters will vote for trump

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ilnjscb

If the election were held right now and the democrats didn't fuck up and put up either a mummy or an outright socialist, I estimate it would be 57-43 popular against the incumbent. Trouble is, with the lunatics on the far left they may do that. Moderate like Kamala Harris could win.

Forget the Early Polls. Is This Democrats' 2020 Frontrunner?

The RS Politics 2020 Democratic Primary Leaderboard

Sarn

In the end, the investigation will be finished with "no collusion" and Trump rating will hit 99%.))) Liberals don't have a leader, they can't "sell good future" for people, only hate, "Racist Racist" and "Russia Russia" hysteria. ))

Bladewire

So far I like Kamala Harris & Kirsten Gillibran. I wish Tim Ryan was running that guy's got a good head on his shoulders. I'd vote Tim Ryan over the other two if he was running.

Acepimp

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ilnjscb

Of those two I actually prefer Gillibrand but I can't see how she has a chance. It's too bad, but you can't have everything.

OneHungLo

No way. No females. Way too emotional and they are ineffective leaders.

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Bladewire

I like her a lot too but the Al Franken trolls are relentlessly attacking her. She needs to resolve that quickly to have any chance of success.

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King Mark

Sounds very ultra islamic

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ilnjscb

She has no chance no matter what she does. It will be Biden or Harris, probably Harris. Depends on whether North Carolina wants a friend of Obama (who has not been endorsed by Obama) or a woman who is half black. I speculate the latter. Joe hangs on, but once it is clear blacks aren't voting for him he drops out. This is just my opinion.