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DVTimes 12-04-2011 04:03 PM

Facebook ? What is it worth?
 
Facebook ? What is it worth?

Soon Facebook will be floated as shares, and its believed its valued at billions.

But is it?

Google makes a lot of cash from adverts. Pop on Google and type in something and part of the results are adverts based on keywords. Google itself is simply a search engine.

But on facebook people use it to connect to friends (or so called friends). Adverts become rather annoying.

The question is, is it worth advertisers putting adverts onto Facebook, or are they simply ignored. If advertisers find results then facebook will make money as its used more and more.

One could see advertising on facebook in the same way as ?junk mail?. While a lot of people will not reply to adverts put through there door, some will, and often enough to make it worthwhile. And this could be the case for advertising on facebook.

However while facebook have millions of users, many these days use mobile phone aps, that (I may be wrong) do not have the adverts on them. We are also seeing in the UK a drop in facebook use.

One area that does make money is the boltons. These are like aps that people use with facebook such as games. The idea is to get millions using the games. Out of this a percentage will buy items in the game or cheats and so on. I have heard these bring in a lot of cash.

A lot of businesses have based themselves around facebook. To me that?s a bit like having all your eggs in one basket, as if facebook flops, your in a mess.

In an ideal world facebook would charge a monthly fee, but into days world where people are used to free, that would probably result in people leaving. In the world of social media sites even loosing a few customers to your competition is a disaster.

In time as with most sites, it is likely a site will replace it, and facebook will feel old. At one point myspace was king. It was talked about all the time and was supposed to have been responsible for new bands. But does anyone use it these days?

Facebook is not Google. Google is now several products. In fact its not just websites but is mobile phones and so on. By expanding into other areas it means the company could still be in profit even if the websites no longer make profit. But facebook is a site. Its just a site that you post pics, vids and chat to your friends, and that?s it. And the problem with that, is that while you read this, some 10 year old in some country or other could be putting together the next big thing.

One thing to remember is while facebook has millions of users, there are millions who do not like facebook and will not use it. The key is to make a site that not only attracts facebook users but also those who do not like facebook.

Am I a fan of facebook? To be honest no. I find it simply a blog that people post there boring lives on. I am not interested in seeing pics of my ?friends? kids at the shops or whatever. I am not interested in reading how they went out today and it was cold/warm. In fact all I discovered on facebook was that most of those I went to school with are now fat, middle aged, dull (I mean really dull) people who seem to sit all day trying to convince everyone they have an exciting life. The only good thing I found was the girls I had the hots for at school now rather repulsive, and it cheers me up that I am not married to any of them. My big fear is that my old school friends may with to meet as a reunion, and I fear what diseases I may pick up by being in the same room as them.

I would love to know what the result of an advert of facebook is. Say an advert is placed on say 100,000 peoples pages (targeted), and out of that how many click or even look at the advert, then out of that how many will result in sales.

Google adverts work because people request the information. No one is going to be annoyed if you do a Google search for ?Soya milk? and part of the results is a link to a ?Soya milk? firm. I have clicked on the adverts on Google, though to be honest I found the search results often gave me what I wanted, while the advertised sites were not what I wanted, or charged a lot more for there product/service. Although I often stick to sites I know and trust as some sites I go on look very poor and I wonder if they are a con or real.

If facebook had plans for other sites/products, then I would be more positive. But maybe when they raise a few billion they could invest in something fantastic.

Facebook was based on a university year book. The next big thing probably needs to be based on real life. From what I have seen Google+ seems to be aiming for that by having your work friends separate from family, separate from your university friends, separate from your close friends and so on.

However facebook has elements of voyeurism, and exhibitionism. Most who use it are or wanting to show off are view those who show off. While (from what I gather) facebook removes users who post nude pics, one wonders what facebook would be if it allowed users to post pics of themselves. One wonders if very quickly it would have the world posting online nude pics of themselves. Facebook in my mind has allowed those who were shy to become mini presenters of sorts. There facebook posts about there daily (and often dull) lives being there sort of TV show. Its odd that a few years ago one would dread the camera bore coming home from holiday having millions of slides to show us, yet facebook appears to have created a population of people doing just that online.

So I shall now log into my facebook account. I suspect it will be full of pics from my ?friends? of pics of there vile overweight children taken on some cheap camera phone. Soon it will be xmass where they then will be posting pics of there vile family sat in there vile homes pretending to have a good time. The joy of pics of the blob families.

stocktrader23 12-04-2011 04:04 PM

You know nothing about Facebook, who would have guessed?

Black All Through 12-04-2011 04:09 PM

Facebook is not going to flop unless something bigger comes along and put it this way, not even Google can find something better. So building a business page on there can only benefit you organization. I have 2 and one has already found me 3 good clients.
I know that answers only a part of your question, but I wanted to say that :)

DVTimes 12-04-2011 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black All Through (Post 18606703)
Facebook is not going to flop unless something bigger comes along and put it this way, not even Google can find something better. So building a business page on there can only benefit you organization. I have 2 and one has already found me 3 good clients.
I know that answers only a part of your question, but I wanted to say that :)

thats true

but how does that make facebook money.

plus the danger is, we will get firms tageting facebook, while forgetting non facebook users.

its a bit like marmite, some love it, some hate it.

the opertunmity is with those who hate it.

if facebook was perfect, everyone on the net would be using it.

slapass 12-04-2011 04:20 PM

Google can have a CTR or 10%. Facebook you are good if you do .1%. If both sites serve the same amount of traffic which stock would you rather own? Seriously overvalued at this point.

Black All Through 12-04-2011 04:21 PM

To grow my page i spent in paid ads around 1200 Euros, it brought 6100 real likes and most are targeted facebook users and participate in seo discussions. Out of these members like I said I picked up 3 clients and 2 of them are investing full rate.
Then facebook has the 3 or 4 vertical sidebar ads, I have to admit I have clicked on several and bought a seo software this past spring.
It is said that Facebook is making close to double with their ads than google is with adwords, I can believe that, because the Facebook ads are much better targeted.

slapass 12-04-2011 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVTimes (Post 18606713)
thats true

but how does that make facebook money.

plus the danger is, we will get firms tageting facebook, while forgetting non facebook users.

its a bit like marmite, some love it, some hate it.

the opertunmity is with those who hate it.

if facebook was perfect, everyone on the net would be using it.

Everyone is using it. No serious online company skips facebook. Why? It is free for the most part.

Tempest 12-04-2011 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVTimes (Post 18606694)
Facebook ? What is it worth?

It's worth whatever wallstreet decides it's worth and that's it.. Doesn't matter what revenue or assets they have. Wallstreet has the power to make or break a company once they're listed.

DVTimes 12-04-2011 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black All Through (Post 18606720)
To grow my page i spent in paid ads around 1200 Euros, it brought 6100 real likes and most are targeted facebook users and participate in seo discussions. Out of these members like I said I picked up 3 clients and 2 of them are investing full rate.
Then facebook has the 3 or 4 vertical sidebar ads, I have to admit I have clicked on several and bought a seo software this past spring.
It is said that Facebook is making close to double with their ads than google is with adwords, I can believe that, because the Facebook ads are much better targeted.

Makes me wonder if 1200 could not be spent better if the result is only 3.

i wonder if an advert in say a pc mag would not have given better results.

CaptainHowdy 12-04-2011 04:35 PM

I refuse to read all that crap ...

DVTimes 12-04-2011 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tempest (Post 18606733)
It's worth whatever wallstreet decides it's worth and that's it.. Doesn't matter what revenue or assets they have. Wallstreet has the power to make or break a company once they're listed.

it could be big money for a while from adverts as people try facebook.

however if the results are poor, i wonder if the trend carries on.

and as i have said many now use facebook only on a phone and i suspect the trend will be more using it on the phone that pc.

DVTimes 12-04-2011 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slapass (Post 18606721)
Everyone is using it. No serious online company skips facebook. Why? It is free for the most part.

no

not everyone is using it. many do not.

i have several friends who do not.

in fact i only log in once a month if that now.

epitome 12-04-2011 05:11 PM

If you facebook is only making money through ads you have no idea what their business is.

Think credits and the game ecosystem.

PornMD 12-04-2011 05:11 PM

I am completely adblind when I'm on Facebook, and I doubt I'm alone. I also think the social games are on the verge of being usual and boring to most who are into them. Just seems silly to invest in them at this point. When prospects were more exciting and they were still achieving massive growth? Sure. But it seems like all the opportunity to make something from investing in Facebook will be pretty much gone by the time they IPO.

The reason why Google works is that people are seeing their ads when they're looking for something, with those ads being relevant much of the time. Most of the time on Facebook, people are too busy talking to friends, browsing around profiles or stalking to really give a shit about clicking some ad.

Tempest 12-04-2011 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PornMD (Post 18606792)
I also think the social games are on the verge of being usual and boring to most who are into them.

Farmville is filled with fanatics along the same lines of WoW etc so I seriously doubt they're going anywhere soon.

DVTimes 12-04-2011 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by epitome (Post 18606791)
If you facebook is only making money through ads you have no idea what their business is.

Think credits and the game ecosystem.

i did say that was one point.

but does that make billions?

DVTimes 12-04-2011 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PornMD (Post 18606792)
I am completely adblind when I'm on Facebook, and I doubt I'm alone. I also think the social games are on the verge of being usual and boring to most who are into them. Just seems silly to invest in them at this point. When prospects were more exciting and they were still achieving massive growth? Sure. But it seems like all the opportunity to make something from investing in Facebook will be pretty much gone by the time they IPO.

The reason why Google works is that people are seeing their ads when they're looking for something, with those ads being relevant much of the time. Most of the time on Facebook, people are too busy talking to friends, browsing around profiles or stalking to really give a shit about clicking some ad.

i find the ads realy ugly.

to be honest its one reason why i do not go on facebook much. it feels like going on some blog full of adverts.

garce 12-04-2011 06:41 PM

Nothing better than a good old thoughtless cut and paste.

I have sigs turned off. Are you lazy fucking retards really so desperate for views that you can't formulate a brief opinion before your automatic cut and paste?

DVTimes doesn't even read these forums. He just Ctrl-C's the internet and posts it here.

DVTimes 12-04-2011 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garce (Post 18606961)
Nothing better than a good old thoughtless cut and paste.

I have sigs turned off. Are you lazy fucking retards really so desperate for views that you can't formulate a brief opinion before your automatic cut and paste?

DVTimes doesn't even read these forums. He just Ctrl-C's the internet and posts it here.

i posted it from my blog.

epitome 12-04-2011 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVTimes (Post 18606822)
i did say that was one point.

but does that make billions?

400 million people log on each day. If each user is worth even $10 a year (they are worth more) then yeah. The users are the product and they're selling 400,000,000 widgets a day.

I don't expect most people here to understand. They're still wondering how tubes can possibly make money.

slapass 12-04-2011 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVTimes (Post 18606751)
no

not everyone is using it. many do not.

i have several friends who do not.

in fact i only log in once a month if that now.

MySpace and then Facebook actually changed the web. People surf less as they are so tied to this site. Just because you and two other cave dwellers don't go there does not mean it is not huge. Seriously, you can choose to ignore it personally but it is a force.

Adwords are more targeted and clearly the advertisers do better then at Facebook. Do you see any fortune 500 on there?

Houdini 12-04-2011 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVTimes (Post 18606694)
Soon Facebook will be floated as shares, and its believed its valued at billions.

But is it?

Have you even bothered to look at their revenue? They're estimated to do $4.2 billion this year and $5.78 billion in 2012. Given a 20 P/E (Similar to Google, which is 21), next year when they IPO their value will be $100 billion ($5 billion x 20 P/E). Took 2 seconds to figure that out.

papill0n 12-04-2011 08:45 PM

you are the most ignorant idiot here

listen to yourself waffle on about facebook like you have even the slightest fucking clue

your like paul markham's trainee idiot

10% of all internet traffic is happening at facebook. If that doesnt tell you all you need to know then there isnt much hope for you. Which ,in your case, is exactly the case.

epitome 12-04-2011 10:36 PM

Bump for answer on how a company that makes billions a year can be worth billions of dollars if DVTimes and his five friends don't use it.

seeandsee 12-05-2011 12:49 AM

maybe 10 billions real worth

DVTimes 12-05-2011 02:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papill0n (Post 18607024)
you are the most ignorant idiot here

listen to yourself waffle on about facebook like you have even the slightest fucking clue

your like paul markham's trainee idiot

10% of all internet traffic is happening at facebook. If that doesnt tell you all you need to know then there isnt much hope for you. Which ,in your case, is exactly the case.

millions of people drive on the M1 motorway, but that does not make 1p in money. what makes money is the sericestations on the way.

of course there are some billboards on the way down, but do those adverts work as people drive past as 90mph?

DVTimes 12-05-2011 02:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by epitome (Post 18607146)
Bump for answer on how a company that makes billions a year can be worth billions of dollars if DVTimes and his five friends don't use it.

i am not convinced it makes billions?

if it is why sell for shares to raise more cash?

it does not make sense to sell.

moeloubani 12-05-2011 02:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papill0n (Post 18607024)
you are the most ignorant idiot here

listen to yourself waffle on about facebook like you have even the slightest fucking clue

your like paul markham's trainee idiot

10% of all internet traffic is happening at facebook. If that doesnt tell you all you need to know then there isnt much hope for you. Which ,in your case, is exactly the case.

netflix has 30% of internet traffic and isnt worth as much as facebook can't really use % of bandwidth to justify a high price

Paul Markham 12-05-2011 03:09 AM

SE is direct advertising. a plumber in Leeds, can advertise himself. The only reason a person goes to Google is to search for something, service, product of information.

FB is indirect advertising, it's like TV advertising. Advertisers hope to get brand recognition and lure people to look at ads. FB users go for entertainment and socializing. this will effect their advertisers in a big way. So unless FB can tap into the Coke level of companies for advertising clients, it will never rank very high. High maybe, just not very high.

The prices I've heard of FB's value seem to be silly valuations. A share issue will put their value in a better perspective, but we know what some think of share values. Often resembles a game of poker more than investing.

Quote:

you are the most ignorant idiot here

listen to yourself waffle on about facebook like you have even the slightest fucking clue

your like paul markham's trainee idiot

10% of all internet traffic is happening at facebook. If that doesnt tell you all you need to know then there isnt much hope for you. Which ,in your case, is exactly the case.
Having 10% of traffic doesn't make your company or the industry worth 100s of billions.

How much traffic on the porn sector of the Internet and how much is the whole online porn business worth? :Oh crap

You're a qualified idiot who still thinks traffic is the key to real wealth. Real wealth, not enough to tap away on your computer in your rented apartment or Mum's basement.

Having a product that people will buy is the key to wealth. Not millions of people surfing for free.

DVTimes 12-05-2011 04:12 AM

is youtube.com making money these days?

lucas131 12-05-2011 04:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVTimes (Post 18607448)
is youtube.com making money these days?

sent them email waiting for answer now

Paul Markham 12-05-2011 04:24 AM

Part of "going public" involves opening up your accounts.

So we will get to see their income and expenditure if they start issuing shares. Unless those on the market are buying on just the name. :1orglaugh

Butterfly expenditure is probably in the 3 figures range. And at the lower end. Like most here. Mum's rent, burgers, hosting and ...............

No that's it. :1orglaugh

Chosen 12-05-2011 04:35 AM

It worth nothing :pimp

DVTimes 12-05-2011 04:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Markham (Post 18607461)
Part of "going public" involves opening up your accounts.

So we will get to see their income and expenditure if they start issuing shares. Unless those on the market are buying on just the name. :1orglaugh

Butterfly expenditure is probably in the 3 figures range. And at the lower end. Like most here. Mum's rent, burgers, hosting and ...............

No that's it. :1orglaugh

staff will be expensive.

then expipment (servers and so on).

i just find it odd why they need to raise money if they are making billions?

the point of raising money is to invest and build up the business more. but if your making billions, why raise billions? thats the bity that i find rather odd.

if they were making a few million then i could understand. you raise billions and develop thingsa much more.

but if your making billions why the need to raise more?

DVTimes 12-05-2011 04:41 AM

from my blog
 
Many webmasters say I am wrong about facebook, due to the number of users.

One comment I have made is that facebook (in fact this could apply to youtube and many other sites) is that you could think of the site like the M1 motorway. Each day thousands dive on it, but that does not make the M1 money. As long as you have transport you can drive on it all day free.

But it does make some money from adverts (billboards) placed on the side of the motorway. Like facebook placed on your page. Of course the theory is the facebook adverts are more targeted.

But also like facebook the M1 has boltons, such as service stations. With facebook these are aps.

The M1 is also like facebook in that just because people may use it each day does not mean people like it. If a new motorway was built, say with better roads, more lanes, better service stations, then chances are people would start using the new one.

It also must be remembered that just like the M1 every car that goes on it, costs the M1 money. The M1 needs to be maintained. Facebook too costs money in bandwidth and servers, and the cost to run them.

The advantage of sorts facebook has over Google is its more targeted adverts as in you can select sex, age and so on. But these are then put to people who may or may not be interested. With Google its focused on people who are wanting the adverts (well links to websites of the product/service).

However as I keep saying, more and more people use facebook on there mobile which if they do not have adverts in there aps makes advertising pointless. You may have millions in the UK spend 30 mins or longer on facebook, but how many are these are on there mobiles on the way to say work or home n the bus. No adverts for them. In other words your advertising is thus limited to a select number of people, that people those who surf using a computer.

With huge amount now buying these portable tablet computers that use aps, I suspect these too may not carry adverts. If your an advertiser its those who buy new phones and tablets may be the ones you want to sell to as well.

I was told 10% use facebook. I would suspect far more use Google.

In the back of my mind I just think MySpace and all those who are telling me MySpace is the nuts are the ones saying facebook is.

The key clearly is to be a hub. By this be the system that links all your other sites together. This is what facebook seems to do better than others, and I am not sure if Google+ does this.

Just because your the M1 with the most traffic does not mean your going to make the most money. It means you have a lot of power and influence over your drivers on the road. If the driver pulls of the M1 and finds himself on a small country lane but finds a wonderful shop that he can park easily at, he may get out and spend a lot of cash, and keep going back. And that to be is the key. You can have millions of people to your site but that does not mean mass profit.

The big question for me, is if facebook is making billions, then why are they selling shares to raise more cash? I do not see the logic.

Roald 12-05-2011 05:01 AM

http://www.qrverts.com/2011/12/04/fa...t-is-it-worth/
http://www.qrverts.com/2011/12/05/facebook-think-m1/

This is your blog?

epitome 12-05-2011 05:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVTimes (Post 18607472)
staff will be expensive.

then expipment (servers and so on).

i just find it odd why they need to raise money if they are making billions?

the point of raising money is to invest and build up the business more. but if your making billions, why raise billions? thats the bity that i find rather odd.

if they were making a few million then i could understand. you raise billions and develop thingsa much more.

but if your making billions why the need to raise more?

They are going public for three reasons. You'd know these reasons if you'd stop asking dumb questions on a message board and actually did your research. Zuck would prefer to remain private but there comes a time when it doesn't make sense anymore:

1) raise cash
2) reward employees that have stock options. They'll go to places like google if you give them options they can never exercise. A lot of long term FB are frustrated with not being millionaires despite being there for years when they would have already been worth millions at a similar startup. And yes, many key employees continue to work when they become worth millions.
3) shareholder reporting requirements. They're already at or about to hit 500 shareholders. They will have to start filing public reports anyway. Why go through hassle with no clear upside?

And yes, YouTube makes money for Google. Again, research gives you the answers you seek. Paul Markham gives you whatever he is thinking, which changes from post to post and year to year.

epitome 12-05-2011 05:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roald (Post 18607500)

Considering how clueless the blog owner is and the fact he uses shitty nudes of ugly fat chick's, I am going to say yes:

http://www.qrverts.com/category/qr-verts-nsfw/

the best part is he says it's a qr code blog and he doesn't even understand how they work. The one movie poster post with the code over the guys mouth is priceless.

DVTimes 12-05-2011 07:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roald (Post 18607500)


yes

its new


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