Where's the industry headed?
 

Simple question: where does everyone see adult in six months, two years and five years? Are we going to have any major shifts, or are tubes going to rule, and blogspam become more and more impossible to pull off? Are camgirls the way of the future, or will adult entertainment be more about virtual reality and improved technology?

Thoughts, opinions, ideas, etc.

Where's everyone hoping porn ends up?

i'll be retired checking stats.

It will always be there.people will always need to fap regardless

The adult industry should be doing the following:

- Global ISP/hotspot provision with included cable/adult channel hardware in major cities
- Giving out free phones/tablets with firmware that includes access to certain services.
- Designing the next evolution of masterbatory hardware that allows a safe, quick orgasm in public places like bars, strip clubs and concert venues.
- Facilitating a global sex ID program that allows participants to get free testing each month as long as their results are directly posted into their designated profile and is accessible by a potential partner accessing an app or a website (biometrically confirmed).
- Contributing heavily to safe(r) sex programs and partnering wherever feasible.
- a Global campaign to reverse negative views on sex and sexual habits.
- Extensive research and development into the potential surrounding Electroencephalography
- For the rest of my ideas I would like a consultancy fee...

The gold rush is over, but we should have expected this. Porn on the Internet was new and exciting - everyone was buying, and conversions were great. Between the novelty wearing off, the economy going to the shitter, and free porn on tubes.... Reality has bitch smacked us hard in the face.

There is still money to be made. I have 100 blogs and I put very little effort into them, and I make about $800 a month off of them. I work for Dating Factory and I see stats for dating all day long, both mainstream and adult, and I see affiliates making tens of thousands of dollars a month - not companies, just single affilaites.

The money is there, you just have to find it.

The toilet

people want what is convenient and discret, the tubes can provide it. magazines like playboy, penthouse etc... no one buys them any more like they used to because of the tubes. does anyone know whether any magazine tried issuing a cd rom with their print at all? maybe they could have done more.

Am I missing something? Electroencephalography? An EEG measure electrical activity in the brain. It's used for clinical research and diagnosing mental and physiological disorders.

free sex served by the forklift to minors will not last...the internet will not remain a "Free for all" no matter how much the anti SOPA and PIPA file sharers want to cling on to the romantic notion of the internet staying "free for theft"....

as far as porn goes, this will be a turning point for the better...

arnox please check your mail

Most of little/middle people will be pushed out.

Select few websites (tubes) will rule all the porn traffic.

The "industry" will be heavily monopolized. Basically become someones personal cash cow.

torrents, tubes, file lockers (the ones that remain) uggh.. too much free shit out there. :(

In the end it will be monopolized by the big guys that survive as Getsu said..

http://www.prlog.org/10570736-money-down-the-toilet.jpg

6 Months - Much of the same as now. There will be increasing rumors about a big company or two ready to fall in adult.

2 years

- Complete 100% collapse of one or two of the top porn companies. Shock and awe.
- paysite Affiliates are almost all gone (except for "affiliates" which are big tubes, freeones, big review sites, paysite owners).
- 50% of the small and medium sized programs will be gone.
- It will be fully accepted that selling paysites in this climate and making large profits is almost impossible. Even the "I work at McDonalds but make $10,000 a month and convert at 1:200! Maybe the problem is you?" guys will be silent.
- GFY will be down to under 24 posters who are mostly reps. You probably won't see me posting here.
- CCBill will be sold or news of it being sold in the past will break. If not another processor will collapse.
- Large percentages of old adult affiliates will turn to blackhat techniques and mainstream. Even the diehards.
- Paysite conversions for affiliates will average 1:6,000 if not worse.
- It will be recognized that Cams are dropping off heavily due to free alternatives.
- Google will fully filter porn results by default.


Five years

- Almost no traditional paysite affiliates. ANyone left will be doing cams or dating.
- GFY will be closed.
- Most adult companies here now will be gone.
- There will be a couple business articles with case studies on the porn industry and it's collapse.
- Between CCBill, Zombaio, Verotel only one will remain but likely more focused on mainstream or re-invented entirely.
- Major law changes for copyrights and or free porn access but it will be too little, too late to save the industry after a decade of downfall.
- I'll come across this post saved on my hard drive or on the wayback machine and laugh.

That's what it's primarily used for at the moment, but there is the potential for determining a person's pleasure profile based on their EEG "signature".

More specifically a device that along with a computer program learns what a person really likes sexually (based on what regions of the brain "light up") and provides relevant content automatically.

We all should be harvesting customized profiles already based on the type of videos/pics a person clicks on, what time of day they click on them and how long they actually view them.

An easier option for now is to use the visitors webcam (or FF cam on a mobile device) to determine the level of pupil dilation, which is a marker for arousal.

The key is to get a user to "jack in" as they jack/jill off.

Biofeedback is becoming more popular as persons wear digital devices that monitor heart rate, blood pressure and other parameters (e.g. Nike Fuelband http://www.nike.com/us/en_us/c/nikeplus-fuelband). There are so many directions we could go with such tech. In addition to adult providers finding out what a user really likes, imagine a user getting feedback on how "well" they did during a sexual performance (solo or with a partner). Then, on the couple's side of things, being able to tell when your partner is feeling aroused or even how intensely they had an orgasm. Digitally enhanced cock rings or dildos that have sensors to detect muscle contractions and pulse rates can assist in this regard.

Anyway, I'm rambling a bit, but like I said earlier the adult industry needs to get its users to jack in while they jack off. :2 cents:

now: depress the competitors :p

No one was even close to pushed out, ROFL, everyone was bought out by manwin and a few others bought some up as well.

Being bought out of the industry is the same as being pushed out of the industry ! Manwin just fluffed it up a little with cash !
Manwin bought up a lot of successful sites but they don't know shit about running those sites !

Yeah, no webmasters at all just quit and got regular jobs.

:1orglaugh

Besides, being bought out is the same as being pushed out.

Google, Bing and Yahoo will penalize porn sites cloned with popular scripts for being SPAM in an attempt to decongest results, discourage any further cloning and reduce the amount of free porn for minors to stumble across.

This right here is what I believe will happen. The rich get richer while the poor stay poor. Just like everything in life.

bingo! the spam days are over :2 cents:

#NSFW will replace porn.

Self-made amateur porn will become a mass participation sport. Surfers will sign up for free tube profiles in their droves, just like Google has been pushing them to. They'll upload their dick pics and videos, write stories about their darkest fantasies, blissfully unaware that everything can be connected to their Facebook, their Twitter, their LinkedIn etc. The authorities will have a complete profile of individuals that the East German Stasi could only have dreamed of.

Agree with pretty much all of it.
There will be a few people here and there that figure something out or innovate an idea and will make bank , the main issue is that it be classic first to market and nobody will be able to compete with it and very little will be able to capitalize a venture to fund it.
The biggest issue I see is lack of market capitalization going forward basically nobody wanting to fund ideas to see if they work...

I think people will still make money too. But for most it will be 1/10 or 1/20 of what they used to get per hour of work or dollar of investment.

I have a lot of ideas in adult but as I think about it further I've nipped a lot of them in the bud. The potential returns just aren't there and it's a long uphill battle. You're looking at $1-$3 per K of traffic versus what used to be $10-$20 per K easily. Plus the competition is insane and you can't count on any help from Google.

Put months of your life into something for $20 a day versus $200 or $2000 a day if all goes according to plan. It's a big difference and that is the reality of it.

A number of magazines and photography stock folks tried selling CDs back in the late 90's.

Tastes in tech do change, but consumers just weren't that into it then.

Well, that's one depressing way of looking at things.

=/

You guys are so fucking negative it's amusing. My income has been growing annually since 2005, I can't be the only one.

We sold CDs of our original bdsm/fetish content up until 2002. Sales weren't great, but worth our time and effort. We funded our trip to the first BondCon in NY (2001) mostly with booth sales of CDs at the show.

But that was near the end of the era.

Sorry. I wish it weren't what I feel will happen. :(

It's fairly conservative too. If you look back wealready lost 50% of affiliates (if not 80% for affiliates being active) and paysites since 2007. A major leader who for a time was buying up everyone also collapsed in the last two years. Mediarevenue. Epassporte fell in 2010. And billers have been going bust since Globill. It's just more of the same plus slightly worse times taking a cumulative toll on those who are left.

The Good news: some people will still make money and some can even thrive. :)

Poo sells.. :2 cents:

That show was so good. I wish they were still doing BondCon. I'd think Kink would be positioned so well to rock that.

Ditto to that.

Definitely. We had a great time at the show that year - despite the 9/11 attack just prior to the convention.

Peter and the Kink folks would do a great job to stage Bondcon - as long as it doesn't get too slick and commercialized. The first Con was cozy and comfortable with a lot of smaller ma 'n pa producers attending (Jim Weathers, David Knight, Paablo, Dan Hawke, Vesta and crew).

Virtual orgasms

I'm headed to the Valley

The key to that has been solved: Rich men give women more orgasms

some people might take this the wrong way but porn online without more government regulation was a gravy train that was missed.

the freedoms of the internet get abused, the internet can just encourage greed and mindless self indulgence.

No more paysites, just paid tubes.

The future's always virtual.

It'll be real enough when it happens.

oh, it already has and its all good it should be it has to be.

i know the real too, a working girl working a seventy two hour week.

You aren't.

how do your sales now compare to what they were in the late 90's through the early 2000's?

porn will be as easy as searching for an images like "flowers" on images.google.com - naturally free and quick with no hassle. (this happens today)
paysites will die and the affiliate model with it.
porn will be basically free. the method might change: for example instead of tube sites there will be "archive porn sites" on which one can download porn by niche and site name in zipped torrents from what used to be paysites of past years, or just surf around any photo or video by that web site.
as of such big content producers will quit because it won't be worth it to pay talent the amounts that are not returned by selling that content selling.
if any new porn will be produced - it will be created by amateurs that want a little glory, a little buck, and to kill boredom. the "old" stuff will still be around in the free porn pool.

People have been doing this same bitching since forever just regarding different models, like TGPs, then MGPs, now Tubes, while everyone else is adapting and growing their income like you. These guys are bitching hoping that things will "go back to the glory days" and will soon be "pushed out" :2 cents:

People will continue to pay for things that simply can't be downloaded, such as a date or pill :2 cents:

Sure. But there is a problem.

(Numbers are representative estimates)

# of people willing to "pay for porn" in 2005: 50 million

# of people willing to "pay for porn" in 2013: 5 million
# of people willing to "pay for adult dating online" in 2013: 2 million
# of people willing to "pay for dick pills online" in 2013: 3 million

See what I'm getting at here (inevitable smart ass comments aside from people) ???

yeah because all the money in this industry comes from minors..

this is such an antiquated point of view it's embarrassing, I would expect a comment like this coming from a mom who can't even figure out her parental settings on her own computer rather than an industry insider. this exposes how much you actually understand this business as a whole more than it is an incite to its future..

good luck with your wishful thinking.

Source for that?