Grapesoda |
10-18-2014 09:24 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by arock10
(Post 20258056)
Uh ok.....
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World Health Organization researchers issued a dire new forecast for the Ebola epidemic Tuesday, one that sees 20,000 cases by November
Another important number is what?s called doubling time ? how long it takes the number of cases to double. This varies greatly from country to country; in Guinea it?s just under 16 days, in Liberia it?s nearly 23 days and in Sierra Leone it?s 30 days. That?s what leads to the projection of 20,000 cases by Nov. 2. ?The true case load, including suspected cases and undetected cases, will be higher still,? the WHO team wrote.
http://news.sciencemag.org/africa/20...la-projections
The Ebola outbreak, which probably started in Guinea in December last year, has already sickened at least 5843 people, according to the latest WHO figures?more than twice as many as all known previous outbreaks combined?and killed 2803. Epidemiologists expect the real numbers to be two or three times that, however, because only a fraction of cases is reported. And the spread of the disease keeps accelerating
A month ago, in its so-called Ebola Response Roadmap, WHO wrote that the number of cases ?could exceed 20,000 over the course of this emergency.? In the new model, it projects that number to be reached by 2 November, if the epidemic continues to grow unchecked.
If the virus continues to spread at the current rate, Liberia and Sierra Leone alone will have reported about 550,000 Ebola cases by 20 January, the authors write. But if the official numbers so far represent only 40% of the real burden?which many believe may well be the case?that would mean a total of 1.4 million Ebola cases in those two countries by 20 January
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