Does Trump Have a Single Chance to Win?
 

I know literally nothing about US politics and I really don't know much about either Trump or Clinton and I can't keep track or follow all the mud slinging accusations.

It seems to me though that Trump has no chance whatsoever of winning. Clinton is a country mile ahead no matter how barmy she might be.

Am I wrong or could Trump still win?

We can all hope the people are just as awake as here in Holland with the referendum and in the UK with the Brexit referendum: Despite the orchestrated aggressive media campaigns to vote in favor of what the establishment wanted, the majority of the voters didn't let that influence them.

The media campaign set up by the establishment in the US against Trump is way, way more aggressive. You can bet that they learned from Brexit, that's why it's all out war on Trump now. They won't gamble on being even a bit subtle, since Brexit proved that the minds of the people were too strong. So they hammer the minds of the US voter with crazy, ongoing propaganda on steroids. Let's hope the majority of the voters have a strong enough mind and not fall for it.

About 15% chance - more if something huge happens to hurt dems

Why don't you find the most repulsive, trash talking, egoistic douche bag in Holland and put him up for election? Call him "anti-establishment", have him piss on stage and call it rebellion, bitch-slap some woman and call it honesty.. Then come back here 5 years later and tell us how you like your "new and reborn" country.

Sure, he has a chance, but it isn't that good. When you look at the way the electoral map plays out (which is how the US chooses a president) it shows that Clinton has many paths to victory while Trump only has a few. So he could win, but him doing so is a longshot.

I think the Rumpster knows he blew it awhile back

And us Americans can sit on Dutch forums constantly cheerleading. :1orglaugh

The main reason he's even at 15% is due to the fact that there are still 15% undecided.

Those are the people that dont vote... anyone who actually votes is firmly decided.....

WTF more do you need to see to be decided in this race

Does he have a chance? Well, yes. Anything can happen between now and election day. However, if Wikkileaks or even Trump had something really bad against Clinton, they should have dropped it either last week or perhaps the week before. I myself voted last week so people are already voting....

But pretty much this is already done.

Trump had no idea what he was doing. It seems to me like he thought he would just give speeches and rely on the press to give him an audience but nearly all of the press he received was negative. The debates didn't help him either. He had no real campaign other than a handful of people advising him.

When Trump was focused he was actually presidential and respectable. But every time he went off script it was downright silly. He opened his campaign with "Mexicans are rapists" and it went downhill from there. Out of all the Republican candidates they had, the Republican party nominated him. It's stunning.

Reminder:
http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/9d/9d5d4...bc7a757384.jpg

Exactly, at this point in the race the only way I can see someone still being undecided is if they simply are not paying attention at all and are oblivious in which case there is a good chance they aren't going to vote anyway.

Following election trends and clintons unfavorable ratings 87% trump will win.

If following the momentum and enthusiasm of trump supporters 100% trump.

Write it down ladies!

Better there than here :)

OP just google for images of hilarys rallies, then compare them to images of trump rallies.

The winner is obvious. Dont worry about the lies you read from the rigged media. Just use your eyes.

Should be obvious when u see hilarys rallies, with 30 people in attendence, that her 50% support numbers in the polls is bullshit.

Hilary will go down in flames. Then shes going to jail.

:1orglaugh

Only if the rigged voting machines are removed from the swing states, he has far more supporters, so yes he would win in an honest election

Across the US and Europe, things are changing.

The working call and lower middle class are getting poorer while the upper middle class and wealthy get richer. This is without the huge growth of unemployed.

Add costs of living and it's clear most are suffering. Trump, UKIP, Le Penn, etc. In offering the only solution.

Controlled migration and stopping the flow of jobs to the Third World.

Trump might not win this time, but will his standing for election wake up the US masses to vote for people who will stand up for them. In Europe it's already happening.

But because work goes to the third world we can buy cheap electonics and clothes. People don't want to pay more for that, only less. In Holland most people buy cheap cars cause Holland has an extra tax on cars. Whole Holland could drive BMW, instead of a cheap car from Taiwan, if they stopped the 30-50% extra import tax... Would be better for environment (much cleaner), safety and comfort.

I already do. I hate the Dutch Queen Gretta Van Whogivesashit.

the short answer is no

as of today if trump loses any ONE of these states he loses the election

GA, NC, PA, FL, OH

all are very close and many are favoring Hillary so barring a HUGE October surprise he hasnt a chance.

Trump's chance to win is extremely narrow. There is a very small chance but it's not very likely.

It would be extremely unlikely if Trump won.

The United States does not have a direct vote for selecting the president. Rather, the Electoral College actually selects the president. When citizens cast their votes, their votes are tallied to select an elector for their voting district. Most states try to award their electoral votes proportionally, but a couple are winner take all states.

For the most part, states get to set up their electoral districts however they would like- Though this is supposed to be done without bias, in reality, many states have such skewed districts that it is possible for only one party to actually win in that state, regardless of how the majority actually votes.

In fact, with the Electoral College, it is very possible to have a candidate receive more votes form citizens, winning the popular vote, but still loose the electoral vote. This happened in 2000 in Bush vs Gore. More people voted for Al Gore overall, but ultimately Bush received more electoral votes and won the presidency.

It is impossible to calculate Trump's chances of winning without some bias. You can't base predictions off of a single poll, rather you need to look at all polling data from various polls, and match that data to statistical models which vary greatly in how accurate they are.

Most voters in the US will always vote democrat or always vote republican, no matter who the candidate is or what platform they are supporting. What usually decides an election is which side can get their supporters to the polls effectively. If you aren't strongly motivated to cast a ballot, it may be easier to stay at home, instead of put up with the hassle of getting out and actually voting.

This only accounts for about a 5% difference, at most. Then, when you factor in the electoral college, realistically only about 2.5% of voters have any real say in the outcome of a presidential election. So the margins between winning and loosing, even in a "landslide" election, are really pretty narrow.

Trying to be fair, looking at polling data and statistical modeling, various election simulations looking at different ups and downs, and modeling based on past elections, Trump has about a 12% chance of winning the electoral college, and thus winning the presidency. This is based on historical models to account for last minute circumstances and how they might shift the polls. Looking only at the popular vote, he has a less than 2% chance of winning that.

lol get lost, he is losing in a landslide

Republicans have won almost every race in the last how many years and now they are gonna get an ass kicking and everything is rigged

He doesn't have more supporters, he has more crazy ones with free time on their hands because they don't have jobs

Again with the rallies...rallies where Trump makes excuses for losing and talks to the people that were gonna vote for him anyway. Nice strategy

Were you surprised by the Brexit results? Prepare to be surprised again.

apples and oranges

I don't think so. In the case of Brexit you had a voting majority that was politically invisible largely due to their lack of online presence. Same situation in the USA.

Slim to none, and slim has left the building. Paddy power bookmakers in Ireland has already paid out those bettors who had clinton winning the election!! :upsidedow

No. (8char)

Every one of those comments about Hillary are false.

I'll take the first one.... Dead Americans in Benghazi - How is that the fault of the Secretary of State? Once again.... This was an attack we didn't see coming, couldn't have prevented, and nothing we could have done would have changed the outcome. We've have nine investigations into Benghazi and every last one of them came back with no wrong doing. This was a terrorist attack - It's disgusting and horrible that a political party is using a terrorist attack as a method to attack a political candidate.

nothing to do with popular vote, its the Electoral college:2 cents::thumbsup

listen you dummies that follow the polls...

all the major polls are conducted primariliy by contacting people on their LANDLINES...how many people do you know that have abandoned their LANDLINES? i know a number, including myself.

so how many people are the polls not polling? is the polling pool of landline owners different than the general public? you think???

not to mention the myriad of historical results that show major polls have been wildly off...the leader in polls, gallup, GAVE UP ON THEM!

on top of being surveys of landline owners, the polls conductors, the media, has shown an obvious agenda to destroy 1 candidate. ergo their polls are not credible, & a thinking person knows that ABC's 11 point lead is a scam.

the polls are garbage. ENERGY is what counts. & only 1 candidate has energy, because he is the only 1 on the campaign trail. Hilary is back in bed.

:1orglaugh

Polls only seem to matter when they are in one's favor. ;-)

there is a difference between a public opinion poll, that asks is the country is on the right track...vs a question that eventually requires the respondee to go out & vote.

the passive opinion does not have the loophole that many people who answer polls dont actually follow through to vote.

such as the couch potatoes who tell pollsters they're voting hilary, watch the samantha bee show doing bong hits, then cant make it to the polls, takes away from high time.

:1orglaugh

This from the latest IDB poll that shows Hillary up by 2. "IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica uses "traditional" telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample."

From the ABC poll you mention above that has Hillary up by 11 points. "65 percent of all interviews are conducted by cell phone, with the remaining 35 percent interviewed via landline."

Next excuse please.

Just had to gloat here with this, anyone who was talking to real people and not trying to see the world through Facebook or their Twitter feed saw Trump coming a mile away.

You are a smart man... how did you know?

hey flashfire! come back in this thread & tell me more how trumps big rallies were "gonna vote for him anyway"

thats funny because wisconson michigan had a lot of blue counties for obama 2012, that went trump 2016. woulda voted hilary but for hilarys PC sex hustling as her campaign instead of make america great again. so no...not gonna vote for him anyway. they were swing voters that hilary took for granted. trump took them.

dummie. you got schooled. :1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

exactly, dirty tactics to win votes. All I ever see on FB & social media was these lies about Hillary, already proven untrue or impossible to put the blame on her unless you're just arrogant and want to blame anyone but the situation.

Dirty win for Trump... maybe his new nick especially if he can't stick to his promises and policies > DirtyDon

Absolutely! When I see Farage involved, I knew this was going to get dirty with many promises to bend the results. Now to see if it's bullshit like Farage & Brexit or if Donald can pull it off being a president. If he can, i'm all behind him, if he can't, well... it's the obvious :2 cents:

? it was about 60% not 80... just over half the votes or even less when it come to FL or Ohio.

& to follow Trump doesn't make you smart, it's called gullible :winkwink:

You = Dipshit :2 cents:

So nearly everyone GFYer that posted in my thread was wrong. This is the last time I listen to you fuckers. Also it's the last time I listen to the media and trust polls.

These are the people that got it wrong:
Horatio Kane
Mark Prince
Kane
Spunky
C H RI S
Rochard
Mike South
Crockett
Bushwacker
LAJ
GSpot

Come on, half the place was supporting Hillarity.... you need a bigger list.

Op... he has no chance. Hope that helps

Yes. Yes he could. LMFAO!!!!

Never underestimate the ability of the Democrats to seize defeat from the jaws of victory. Bernie, Biden, Warren - any decent candidate would have taken this election easily. But no, the Democrats decide to nominate the one candidate that their base could not fully support and that could unite the opposition, no matter how great their misgivings about Trump.

Many Democrats scoffed when Michael Moore called Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania the "Brexit" states - turns out he knew a lot more than the people running the DNC did.

Hey look, it's dopey cuck Rochard. Has realclearpolitics offered you a writing position yet?