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-   -   AI system that correctly predicted last 3 US elections says Donald Trump will win (https://gfy.com/showthread.php?t=1224856)

wehateporn 10-29-2016 02:15 PM

AI system that correctly predicted last 3 US elections says Donald Trump will win
 

The New York businessman with a penchant for celebrity television may suddenly find himself in love with artificial intelligence developed in India.

The polls and simulations that involve the skills and insight of human beings suggest Donald Trump could be heading for something of a pasting. But an artificial intelligence (AI) system developed in Mumbai, and which correctly predicted the last three US presidential elections, puts the Republican nominee ahead of his rival Hillary Clinton in the battle to secure the keys to the White House.

Continued AI system that correctly predicted last 3 US elections says Donald Trump will win | The Independent

Relic 10-29-2016 03:38 PM

http://i.imgur.com/kX2LHb3.jpg

EddyTheDog 10-29-2016 03:44 PM

Sounds familiar - Oh wait, that was an octopus that predicted the World Cup Winners...

altmman 10-29-2016 04:17 PM

headlines a year ago predicted Bernie Sanders would win:

University With 100% Accuracy Record Predicts Bernie Sanders Will Be America's Next President - Firebrand Left

mineistaken 10-29-2016 04:21 PM

Emperor Trump!

mineistaken 10-29-2016 04:27 PM

Comment from the article:

Quote:

With the overweighting of democrats in all of the major outlet polls, that Hillary is only leading by 2-5 pts and not creaming Trump by 50 is extremely BAD news for Hillary.

She can barely win the gift polls they're giving her? Democrats oversampled 50% and she isn't up 50 pts? Wow.

RealClearPolitics click the ABC link (and others) for methodology. In the latest ABC, they oversampled democrats by a 28% margin. Who can't win with a margin like that? Oh...Hillary...
What is he talking about? Has merit or BS?

ilnjscb 10-29-2016 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by altmman (Post 21256810)

All you needed to see was university to know that was bullshit

altmman 10-29-2016 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ilnjscb (Post 21257164)
All you needed to see was university to know that was bullshit

A university that correctly predicted the last 40 years of elections is wrong, but AI from an unknown indian startup that only predicted the last 8 years is right?

onwebcam 10-29-2016 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mineistaken (Post 21256831)
Comment from the article:



What is he talking about? Has merit or BS?

I've been ranting about this for months. His percentages are off though. Depends on how you're figuring it. Considering there was a higher tunout of Repubs and lower turnout of Dems the sampling should be about even and inde's being the decider. If you use that alone they (ABC/huffpo) are oversampling by about 8-9%. With the last poll showing her 4 points up she's actually 2-4 behind. The previous 3 days had her 12pts up. So 8pt move in 3 days. Which is somewhat consistent with la times http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-pres...oll-dashboard/

Jigster715 10-29-2016 10:53 PM

Both AI systems probably need to work on their election rigging algorithms.

Vendzilla 10-29-2016 11:03 PM

Looking at the ABC polls, they have Hillary just ahead of Trump. Then you look at the sampling and it's 7 points more than republicans and independents. The difference in size from dems to gops is about 1% now and independents out number both parties. Based on the polls then, Trump is going to win

Coup 10-29-2016 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vendzilla (Post 21257233)
Looking at the ABC polls, they have Hillary just ahead of Trump. Then you look at the sampling and it's 7 points more than republicans and independents. The difference in size from dems to gops is about 1% now and independents out number both parties. Based on the polls then, Trump is going to win

The ABC poll had her at +12 just a few days ago. She's lost ten points on it.

http://i.imgur.com/UyV3L7S.png

onwebcam 10-29-2016 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coup (Post 21257242)
The ABC poll had her at +12 just a few days ago. She's lost ten points on it.

http://i.imgur.com/UyV3L7S.png

Didn't know they put out another. I found this pretty interesting

"Trump, further, has gone from a 6-point deficit to a 16-point advantage among independents, with more Republican leaners in their ranks. "

22pt move with inde's and this is pre bomb drop.

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-con...rackingNo7.pdf

celandina 10-30-2016 09:56 AM

http://cdn.abclocal.go.com/content/w...4_1280x720.jpg

Vendzilla 10-30-2016 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coup (Post 21257242)
The ABC poll had her at +12 just a few days ago. She's lost ten points on it.

http://i.imgur.com/UyV3L7S.png

If you look at the methodology , here's who are being polled
Partisan divisions are 37-28-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
Independents make up almost 40% of the nation and Dems outnumber Reps by only 1%
So using this, I would conclude that Trump is way ahead if this poll is say that Clinton is ahead by 1%

Spunky 10-30-2016 10:37 AM

Go Rumpster Go!

Coup 10-30-2016 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vendzilla (Post 21257995)
If you look at the methodology , here's who are being polled
Partisan divisions are 37-28-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
Independents make up almost 40% of the nation and Dems outnumber Reps by only 1%
So using this, I would conclude that Trump is way ahead if this poll is say that Clinton is ahead by 1%

I agree. With a drop like that, and as you said about sampling methods, speaks volumes.


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