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-   -   Oil supply and demand surge to a new record. (https://gfy.com/showthread.php?t=1304561)

dyna mo 10-12-2018 07:38 AM

Oil supply and demand surge to a new record.
 
The new IEA report points out:

"Both global oil demand and supply are now close to new, historically significant peaks at 100 mb/d, and neither show signs of ceasing to grow any time soon. Fifteen years ago, forecasts of peak supply were all the rage, with production from non-OPEC countries supposed to have started declining by now. In fact, production has surged, led by the US shale revolution, and supported by big increases in Brazil, Canada and elsewhere. In future, a lot of potential supply could come to the market from places like Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, if their various challenges can be overcome.

There is no peak in sight for demand either."

"It is an extraordinary achievement for the global oil industry to meet the needs of a 100 mb/d market, but today, in 4Q18, we have reached new twin peaks for demand and supply by straining parts of the system to the limit. Recent production increases come at the expense of spare capacity, which is already down to only 2% of global demand, with further reductions likely to come. This strain could be with us for some time and it will likely be accompanied by higher prices, however much we regret them and their potential negative impact on the global economy.


we can't even keep up with total energy demand but oil is dead.
:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

ghjghj 10-12-2018 07:41 AM

That's fake news friend

dyna mo 10-12-2018 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghjghj (Post 22348477)
That's fake news friend

i know several people here think so. that's whats so funny about it

dyna mo 10-12-2018 07:51 AM

oil is dead long live oil

https://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfn..._BASEIMAGE.jpg

Bladewire 10-12-2018 07:57 AM

IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast as Prices Remain High | Bloomberg

dyna mo 10-12-2018 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bladewire (Post 22348481)

the forecast is for growth. revising the forecast several thousand barrels a day out of 10 million barrels a day doesn't change the fact that oil demand is still increasing. so instead of increasing at 1.6%, it's increasing at 1.5%

dyna mo 10-12-2018 08:06 AM

https://www.ogj.com/content/dam/ogj/...y%20energy.png

huey 10-12-2018 08:15 AM

I like to remind all the electric car fans that when they plug their electric car in all that is happening is more oil or coal is being used at a generating plant.

Bladewire 10-12-2018 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22348484)
the forecast is for growth. revising the forecast several thousand barrels a day out of 10 million barrels a day doesn't change the fact that oil demand is still increasing. so instead of increasing at 1.6%, it's increasing at 1.5%

Oil cartells artificially increase the demand to increase prices. It's a racket

dyna mo 10-12-2018 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bladewire (Post 22348488)
Oil cartells artificially increase the demand to increase prices. It's a racket

that's entirely incorrect. what they do is reduce supply to maintain price.

OneHungLo 10-12-2018 08:19 AM

Mark Prince is huddled in a corner crying after reading this.

dyna mo 10-12-2018 08:21 AM

energy demand is hardly manufactured.

example:

Morgan Stanley analysts Wednesday issued a forecast for global miles driven rising to 32 trillion by 2030, up from 11 trillion currently, with emerging markets a big driver of the growth. They say that forecast is not only bullish for electric cars and light trucks, but also for gains by gasoline-fueled vehicles.

For example, they expect China, the largest and fastest adapter of electric vehicles, to increase miles traveled to nearly 9 trillion by 2040, up from 1.5 trillion currently.

"Even allowing for an aggressive penetration of EVs, we forecast gasoline demand for light vehicle transport to roughly triple by the mid-2030s before beginning a slow decline," the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. "It's little wonder why the Chinese government is so focused on encouraging the development of a sustainable electric transport ecosystem on the grounds of energy security and environmental sustainability."

Electric cars and light trucks, including hybrids, in the last year displaced only about 50,000 barrels a day of oil in a world that is using 100 million barrels a day for the first time this year, according to IHS Markit.

dyna mo 10-12-2018 09:25 AM

oil demand continues to grow over the next 20 years, a view shared by rival BP and energy consultants like Wood Mackenzie. More importantly, most believe peak oil will have a long tail and that oil demand – set to reach 100 million barrels a day this year – won’t fall off abruptly even after it peaks. Instead, it should be considered a plateau rather than a sharp peak.

That’s because even if electric vehicles have remarkable penetration in the transportation market, oil demand is still expected grow in other sectors, including trucking, aviation and especially petrochemicals. Demand for products ranging from fertilizers to plastics and beauty products will drive roughly a quarter of the expected oil demand growth over the next five years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Large emerging economies like China and India are still busy building massive new refineries and petrochemical facilities with price tags the size of a small country’s GDP, even as they roll out aggressive targets for adopting electric vehicles.



oil is dead. long live oil.

Rochard 10-12-2018 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by huey (Post 22348487)
I like to remind all the electric car fans that when they plug their electric car in all that is happening is more oil or coal is being used at a generating plant.

I have solar. NONE of my power comes from the power company.

dyna mo 10-12-2018 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rochard (Post 22348525)
I have solar. NONE of my power comes from the power company.

bullshit. how do you think you turn on the lights at night?

huey 10-12-2018 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rochard (Post 22348525)
I have solar. NONE of my power comes from the power company.

Majority of the world is not.

GFED 10-12-2018 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22348538)
bullshit. how do you think you turn on the lights at night?

Most solar setups have a battery bank. I have 8 x AGM batteries in my RV giving me 1000Ah of stored energy.

dyna mo 10-12-2018 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GFED (Post 22348623)
Most solar setups have a battery bank. I have 8 x AGM batteries in my RV giving me 1000Ah of stored energy.

Nope. Most home solar installations most certainly do not have battery storage. You think 1000 amp hours will power a house longer than ~1 hour? Not even close.

dyna mo 10-12-2018 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GFED (Post 22348623)
Most solar setups have a battery bank. I have 8 x AGM batteries in my RV giving me 1000Ah of stored energy.

also, richard's not offgrid. as i recall his mentioning his longterm contract with his solar panel company requires he give back every amp his system generates that he doesn't use. He can't store it himself. that's how most these contracts work too. you can't go offgrid.

GFED 10-12-2018 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22348633)
Nope. Most home solar installations most certainly do not have battery storage. You think 1000 amp hours will power a house longer than ~1 hour? Not even close.

I wasn't suggesting my battery bank was sufficient for a household. I would recommend a couple of these https://www.tesla.com/powerwall for a household. I doubt my 400 watts of panels would suffice as well. I assume Rochard would have around 15,000 watts or more.

GFED 10-12-2018 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22348637)
also, richard's not offgrid. as i recall his mentioning his longterm contract with his solar panel company requires he give back every amp his system generates that he doesn't use. He can't store it himself. that's how most these contracts work too. you can't go offgrid.

I see. That kinda sucks.

dyna mo 10-12-2018 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GFED (Post 22348639)
I wasn't suggesting my battery bank was sufficient for a household. I would recommend a couple of these https://www.tesla.com/powerwall for a household. I doubt my 400 watts of panels would suffice as well. I assume Rochard would have around 15,000 watts or more.

those tesla Li battery banks are ideal but very expensive, even more than batteries are usually. I'm sure those 8 AGMs you have weren't cheap. i'm not sure where you put all those.

GFED 10-12-2018 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22348643)
those tesla Li battery banks are ideal but very expensive, even more than batteries are usually. I'm sure those 8 AGMs you have weren't cheap. i'm not sure where you put all those.

They're currently in the rear, but I've been thinking about moving them inside of one of my bench seats.

https://i.imgur.com/vYBbEx9.jpg

Bladewire 10-12-2018 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22348489)
that's entirely incorrect. what they do is reduce supply to maintain price.

The increase demand & price by reducing production. Exactly what I said but in a different way dufuss

dyna mo 10-12-2018 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GFED (Post 22348654)
They're currently in the rear, but I've been thinking about moving them inside of one of my bench seats.

https://i.imgur.com/vYBbEx9.jpg

that's a clean looking setup, looks like an mppt controller in the back there.

dyna mo 10-12-2018 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bladewire (Post 22348657)
The increase demand & price by reducing production. Exactly what I said but in a different way dufuss

it's a technicality, but still! :1orglaugh

GFED 10-12-2018 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22348659)
that's a clean looking setup, looks like an mppt controller in the back there.

Ty sir. Yes, it is an MPPT charge controller. :)

dyna mo 10-12-2018 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GFED (Post 22348667)
Ty sir. Yes, it is an MPPT charge controller. :)

are the system fuses built into those switches? how much solar are you generating? you prolly have, what, 50 amp fuses on that? that's some hefty cabling.

GFED 10-12-2018 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dyna mo (Post 22348673)
are the system fuses built into those switches? how much solar are you generating? you prolly have, what, 50 amp fuses on that? that's some hefty cabling.

I have an inline 40A fuse from the solar panels and a 400A fuse from the batteries. I peak out at around 23A from the panels. I used 4/0 welding cable. I'm fairly certain the switches do not have built in fuses, but I could be wrong.

Blue Sea Systems m-Series Mini On-Off Battery Switch with Knob- Red https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00445KFZ2..._1VqWBbV3WNK2W


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