Economy is slowing and gonna crash... We will be in a recession next year
 

All the signs are here.. I'm already seeing it with my Trucking.. Last year, Nov and Dec were two of my best months of the year.. This year Nov and now Dec is flaundering.. It was smoking right up until Trump started the trade wars and tariffs hit everything. Every since that moment Ive seen steady decline of good/high paying freight.

Trump has fucked the shit up and its now starting to hit.. Next year will be shit, better prepare for it. :2 cents:

Based on Crockett's track record of being wrong in 99% of his threads, it's safe to say this is just another dumb conspiracy theory propagated by fear-mongering Democrats.

Dude, he won and she lost. Go on with life already.

:1orglaugh

I've always been right. The only thing I was wrong was Trump and Republicans being able to steal a election..

McDonald's will lay you off when the Kiosk takes your job..

For fuck sake crockett it would be a recession with or without Trump. Snap out of it and stop spreading lies.

Recession will hit Europe too and certain countries might be in a heap of trouble this time, who managed to dodge the 2008 recession. Trump has nothing to do with it.

And the excuses begin. :1orglaugh

Never mind that Trump just said not even a week ago this was the best economy ever. You guys don't think to highly of yourself to love a guy that lies to you constantly. Do you have a track record of being in abusive relationships?

There will always be another recession, its about how your Government has prepared for it

Paying down debt, increasing trade, spending on infrastructure and regulating key industries like banks so they're better prepared.

Trump scores a minus F on all.

No loot money to fudge the books with in 2019 so it will be interesting.

I would imagine the trucking industry would be picking up this time of the year if only because of Christmas.

But the next recession is already coming, we already see the signs. The housing market is slowing down, and the car companies are closing down plants.

You would imagine so. Unless we were heading to a recession.. Hence why ots not.

Trucking is the 1st place this shows up because people aren't buying, factories arent ordering so no one is shipping.. It was a drastic slow down soon as the Tariffs took effect. There was actually a big spike just before the Tarriffs happened because everyone was in a mad rush trying to get shit shipped out of the country or in before they took effect. Soon as they took effect everything stopped..

Trump took a booming econemy handed to him by Obama on a silver platter and wrecked it.. This is 100% on Trump and the idiots that voted for him...

LOL!!!

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh :1orglaugh:1orglaugh
:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh :1orglaugh:1orglaugh
:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh :1orglaugh:1orglaugh

So how's the impeachment going? How's the Mueller probe going? STill waiting on a single shred of ANY evidence of wrongdoing... anything at all... still waiting...

Ok well i'm sure you'll let us know when it happens, LOL

Yea you're right. The Mueller investigation has been a complete failure.

Fucking dumb jagoff :1orglaugh

Seems like it's moving right along..

Ok genius- please post all the evidence of Trump-Russia collusion.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

You think manafort dodging taxes 10 years ago while working for the Podestas somehow implicates Trump?

Flynn? talking to the Russian ambassador in DC is his job.

Carter Page, an FBI informant planted in the campaign.

Who else, that George P dude? Whatever man, there's simply no evidence of wrongdoing from Trump. You guys can deny facts all you like. It just shows everyone how insane & gullible you people are.

Impossible to debate a fella who's only knowledge of the outside world comes from daily emails from his handlers.

Finally you can be happy. Economy crashes and we will see you and others celebrating

So you can't post ANY evidence of wrongdoing from Trump, and your only strategy is to accuse others of being "Russian trolls." Remind me again who is stirring division among Americans?

:1orglaugh

Here are the facts.

You and I and anyone not in Mueller's inner circle have no idea what evidence he has or does not have. All we have to go on is the stuff he has made public through various court filings, much of which has been heavily redacted. We won't know what he really has, or doesn't have, until his full report is issued. Until then, suggesting that Trump is guilty is nothing more than conjecture. Also, suggesting Trump is innocent is also conjecture. He has the presumption of innocence, but to suggest anyone KNOWS that Mueller has nothing is just a guess on that person's part.

And you'll blame Democrats because, you know, orange man is your infallible God in a diaper.

It's more like we are saying told you so... but once again you right wing nutters never listen until it bites you in the ass and then you blame everyone but yourselves..

wow you must have a Crystal Ball

Ever since 2008 the economy is running on bubble fumes, because the natural cycle should have been to let it all burst and start from scratch. But the elites of course didn't allow it or they would lose too much, so they started bailing out banks left and right. That artificial crutch is bound to break, and then we'll have the real crash that 2008 should have been.

No... I'm in the trucking industry so I see it before it hits you. Just the same as I see spikes before you will see them..

A few months ago, I was seeing trailer after trailer of aluminum ingets ( large blocks of aluminum stock) rolling down the road. It was crazy how many loads of it I was seeing... Now none...none at all..


Why was that? It's was because of the steel and aluminum tarriffs. Factories and suppliers were trying to get their hands on as much as they could at pre tariff prices before the cost went up by 20% or what ever it is now.

That was freight you could see because it was on flatbeds... What you can't see is lot of the stuff I haul like frozen meat and other food products they used to get shipped overseas. ( yes one of our biggest exports in this country is food) All that freight is dead, it all has Tarriffs on it now. Major cities that normally would see 500 loads on a load board everyday are in the 100 range.


Last year Nov and Dec were the best 2 months I've ever had, this year its dead.. I'm lucky, I turn my current truck in Jan 4th and go home until I buy my next one (no more leasing for me). I can afford to sit out the winter and then some if need be but I can tell its gonna get much worse..

What I'm seeing now is what you guys will see next year...

I agree with all of this. Not sure why some people think Trump is conspiring with Russia to somehow rig the election. It's tinfoil conspiracy theory, especially since the NSA and the Senate confirmed that the foreign interference didn't change any vote totals. But yes let's let it play out- Trump has no intention of firing Mueller.

I will admit my thinking on Trump and Russia has changed over the last two years.

My thought is that he expected to lose the election, he even said so himself, and he spent a lot of his own money on that election. He wanted to get something out of it so I think he may have used his position as candidate to negotiate some deals for himself, perhaps in exchange for favorably looking at Russia when it came to sanctions etc. If he then lost, he could say he tried and he would have made good on his promises if he had won, but he didn't so they might as well do the deal anyway because everyone makes money anyway. Well, then he won so those plans had to be put on hold. As the info of those meetings started to come out Trump and his crew went into cover up mode. Often times it isn't the crime that gets you, it is the cover up. In short, I think Trump and his people did collude or try to collude with Russia but I don't think ti was to win the election, I think it was to enrich himself and he has gotten caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Add in some potential breaking of campaign finance laws and Trump has plenty to be nervous about.

Will any of this (if this is even remotely correct) end up with Trump or any of his family in deep shit? I have no idea. I tend to be someone who believes where there is smoke there tends to be fire. There is a hell of a lot of smoke surrounding him so for Mueller to find some fire won't shock me, but I have no real idea what all he could actually have on Trump. Typically, however, investigations that include multiple people being sent to jail and/or turning state's witness don't end with the state just washing their hands of it and saying nothing is there.

A year long stagnant market that is in correction territory, a cooling real estate market, a less than expected jobs report yesterday, a declining GDP. Smart people don't need a crystal ball. Funny how the clowns went from 'the best economy in history' to it would have happened anyway. EVERY republican President ends up fucking up the economy.

The next step will be to find a way to blame Obama for it.

This will be my 4th recession. Remember if things get really fucked up they will just hit the reset button like in 2008/9

The US dollar is way up I get $1.30 on my deposits at the bank. You are not in a recession.

The best ever was 2001 the exchange was $1.60.

Not one person in this thread said that we are in a recession right now. Not one.

What they said is that they have no evidence that it changed the outcome of the election.
Not having evidence and clearing the charge are two different things. You would have to poll folks yet again to find out if they would have changed their mind if they knew certain things were false. The NSA has no investigative powers on US soil. That is for the FBI.

If you want to find out though, I'm up for a new vote for POTUS.

Trump can not fire Mueller. The head of the DOJ can. Trump can fire the head of DOJ as has happened, but Mueller continues.

What charge? There is no charge. Collusion isn't even a crime. But we've seen no evidence he did it.

The effectiveness of that reset button is totally dependant on the resources you gain when your not in recession, lowing tax, increasing debt and doing nothing infrastructure wise, while pulling back bank regulations, is maybe not the best economic plan ;)

Funny you should ask.

Cohen - Trump's attorney - was just indicted for campaign finance violations, financial crimes and lying to Congress. Trump was mentioned in the indictment because he ordered Cohen to violate federal law. So now we know that Trump will eventually face charges.

Manafort - Trump's campaign manager - was charged with more stuff, lost his deal and... Was in direct contact with the Russian who ran the entire DNC hacking operation and then Manafort lied about it so...

But good news - we are investigating Hillary again!

Wrong again.

↑↑↑ Wrong

I didn't say we were in a recession yet. I said its coming next year. Trump is hurting a lot of business with the tariffs and that's what is killing the economy right now..


There is a chance he could salvage it and push off a recession if he makes some great trade deal and stops the tariffs but if he keeps at the current pace then it will cause a recession next year.

There are also other issues at play, not just here in the US. You have Brexit going on as well as China's economy having problems.

All the signs are there..

Not collusion... it is a full conspiracy. And I know how well you like those.

Yes...
As I keep saying, it takes at the very least 6 months for any policy events effect to be 'measured' in the economy.
Generally, it takes 1-2 years. So, next year, you will have the early indicators by march/april. That will spook investors, making matters even worse.

That just gives them time to blame it on the new house dem's....LOL
Folks on the right will buy it because they want to and know no better.

can you possibly explain me what the exchange rate of a currency have to do with a recession?

I am really looking forward to read that ;-)

More rosey news... people are pulling large amounts of money out of the stock market..

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/12/14/...ted-event.html

But trump did all this MAGA stuff?!? Now I am really confused...

It will affect you as well... but anyway the smart people have always known the MAGA was bullshit... all Trump did was made a crash inevitable and preped it to be much worse for average people. the dumbs are the only ones who believed the MAGA bullshit, but they all live in trailer parks..

You still don't have a clue why people voted for him in the first place. You and your NPC buddies.

Recession is under way whether Trump says it's the best economy or not.

Stay out of forex, stockmarkets and bitcoin, it's not for you.

Nothing to do with Trump per se.. Everything to do with the Worldwide revolt on globalism/politicians.. A good article on the matter at hand

Signs Of Coming Collapse: Citizens Worldwide Revolt Against Taxation & Illegal Aliens
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...illegal-aliens

For a long time the quote at the end was my sig even here I think

“Sarah, if the American people ever find out what we have done, they would chase us down the street and lynch us.” – President George H.W. Bush

Another related areticle

The Bond Market Has Frozen: For The First Month Since 2008, Not A Single Junk Bond Prices
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...nk-bond-prices

Economy ? Take moment...
Is that the top priority right now...
OR...
Stopping the Republicans from installing a Putin Style Democracy (hardly a democracy)

If if look at it, it seems that is exactly what we are getting... one trick at a time.
It's been a bit harder to see it in some of the states where it is playing out but not hard to see it at the federal level.

Those with money rule !

:1orglaugh :1orglaugh :thumbsup

Good read, trouble is underway. Never heard that quote though, is it recorded or only noted by a 3rd party?

Why does Trump always bash the people he hires? What a fucking dumbass.

Nixon all over again: Trump's Fed-bashing and interest-rate panic will cause a recession, not prevent one

President Donald Trump's tweet on Monday morning admonishing the Federal Reserve for even thinking about raising interest rates amplified his recent criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and just a day before the Fed begins its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting to decide whether to go ahead with another increase.

In a recent interview, Trump said of his own appointee to oversee the Fed, "I'm not even a little bit happy with my selection of Jay. … They're making a mistake. … My gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else's brain."

In October, Trump called the Federal Reserve the "greatest threat" to his presidency. His attacks on the Fed may be a greater threat to the country.

Should Powell simply cave into the political pressures from the White House, it could spell disaster for the U.S. economy. The last time this happened was when Richard Nixon was in office, and what followed was one of the worst economic recessions of the 20th century.

The Fed's mandate does not include propping up stock prices
Although the call for slowing the pace of interest-rate hikes is not limited to the president, his comments are based on the political calculus of how higher rates are impacting stock prices, the self-proclaimed measure of his administration's economic success, and not a deeper understanding of the economy or the goals of monetary policy. They do not help the economic policy discourse and may even be dangerous.

With the unemployment rate at 3.7 percent and GDP growing above a 3 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2018, most economists consider the U.S. economy to be in a situation of "full employment." Over the past two years, the recovery from the Great Recession has added another 3.8 million jobs on top of the 12 million created over the previous eight years. The Federal Reserve has remained on track toward policy normalization, raising the federal funds rate seven times since December 2016, and there are compelling reasons for why they should continue this policy.

"Although monetary policy should be data-dependent, their dependency should be based on rules rather than discretionary actions and presidential tweets."
First, the recent acceleration in economic growth and low interest rates has heightened inflation concerns. The current CPI has been increasing at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, the highest in seven years, with both the producer price index and wage growth rising more than expected over the past month. Furthermore, the large corporate tax cuts, a budget deficit expected to exceed $1 trillion and escalating trade wars with China and other trading partners are expected to add to these inflation pressures.

Second, we are approaching the tenth year of economic expansion, currently the second longest in U.S. history, and both the Federal Reserve and bipartisan CBO are forecasting slower domestic and global growth in 2019. The likelihood of a recession occurring within the next two years are rising, with economists at JP Morgan placing the chances as high as 60 percent. Interest rates will need to be in the "neutral" range at that time to give the FOMC enough ammunition to prevent a serious economic downturn. This calls for additional rate hikes over the next year as well as continued unwinding of the Fed's balance sheet, which grew to $4.5 trillion during the Great Recession. The reverse QE policy will abate concerns of the higher short-term rates leading to an inverted yield curve.

Third, keeping interest rates too low for too long exacerbates the type of excessive risk-taking by financial institutions that led to the financial crisis. The TED interest-rate spread, which is an indicator of credit market risk, has more than doubled in the past two months and is higher than its five-year average. Normalizing interest rates is one of the keys to a stable financial market.

The greatest threat to the economy
It is without a doubt that prudent monetary policy is the No. 1 reason for the sustained economic growth of the past three decades. An independent and non-political FOMC is essential for the Federal Reserve to achieve their objectives of price stability and maximum employment. The greatest threat to the economy today is not what the Federal Reserve is doing but how it responds to a president with little regard for eroding the public confidence in our government institutions.

Unfortunately, there are indications that Trump's barrage of attacks on the Fed is having an impact.

In a recent speech to the Economic Club of New York, Chair Powell said that the fed funds rate was "just below" its neutral level and called for a more data-dependent monetary policy, contradicting his previous statement only a month earlier that they were a "long way off" from rate normalization. This should be of concern given that nothing has fundamentally changed over the past month with the exception of elevated stock market volatility. Although monetary policy should be data-dependent, their dependency should be based on rules rather than discretionary actions and presidential tweets.

While the members of the FOMC have always been a mix of doves and hawks who represent a range of opinions, they always have been able to reach a consensus based on sound economic reasoning. There has been no dissenting votes on any of the Fed rate hikes under Powell. Furthermore, the median projection of the fed funds rate in 2019 by FOMC members has remained consistent at above 3 percent, suggesting at least three more hikes over the next year.

Backing off from the current course of policy normalization for a short-term bounce in equity markets would erode Powell's credibility, cloud Fed transparency and raise inflation expectations. It was widely expected that the FOMC will raise rates for the fourth time this year, a move Trump has called "foolish."

If the Fed does slow down the pace of rate hikes, they should clearly communicate how economic conditions have changed relative to their previous forecast to support their change in policy.

For a politician to try to control rates through the fed is a admission your policies have failed. Be it POTUS or Congress.