What are you predictions for Adult in 2004?
 

Will 3rd party processors be around and in the same capacity? If so, which ones are you "banking" on, pun intended?

Will we see another affiliate program breakthrough like BangBus of CFF?

Will Visa discontinue adult processing in the US (only 3 banks do it now)?

Will Visa International come under the same regulations as Visa USA?

Is AVS doomed or just in for an overhaul?

Will Acadia win or lose?

Will any popular sponsor programs be shut down for not being able to keep chargebacks below 1%?

Will an alternative form of payment processing be developed and be succesful so that webmasters are less reliant on Visa?

Where do you think YOU will be; better off or worse than now?

By the end of 2004 I predict the following.

3rd party processors will be forced out of business. There may be one or two left at the most. We will depend more on checks, 900#, dialers, etc.

Visa/MC will change the rules are far as recurring.

Acacia will drag on for years.

Bottom line tough times ahead, I hope to survive, but many will not.

AVS looks to be changing, well before 2004.

I don't think 3rd party will be forced out completely. Gonna see at least 4 more shut down though. I think CCBill and Epoch will survive.

AVS is a dead man walking. *IF* it's still around by '04, it will only be overseas and only until Visa Int'l adopts the same rules Visa US is about to put into place.

Ditto what Brad said with Visa changing rules, we're relying more on other forms of payment, and Acacia dragging on for years.

Popular sponsor programs shut down because of cbs? Yes.

Visa Int'l same rules as Visa US? Yes.

Alternate forms of payment developed? Yes.
Sucessful? ehhhh... eventually yes but I think it will take at least a year - webmasters are *too* reliant on those Visa cards.

Me? Better off in '04, and still here.

For most people:

http://www.trumanlibrary.org/museum/...hindenburg.jpg

For those that are capitalized, experienced, and can adapt, the reduction in competition & idiots will be profitable.

I am with Brad on most of his points there.

Its a miracle there is still 3rd Party Processing still IMO.

Yeah, very honest opinion.

I sure hope you're wrong about recurring billing. That would be mean certain disaster. That's a frightening thought. How can programs survive charging one-time fees?

I also think, you will see more and more people walk away from the business. Some will full wallets, others back to 9-5 jobs.

Also, I expect all future shows to get smaller and smaller. Simply fewer people in the biz, and very little reason anymore to blow $.

Agree with Brad about AVS.

If you are relying on AVS as the majority of your income, you are a dead man walking. Time to diversify.

You'll still be here. You're too damned pompous to go down easy. :winkwink:

Carrie, you sound so certain. Let's be friends :) lol

Do you do design? How will none of these affect you?

3rd party processing is going down fast... and that sucks big time.
I think Visa may continue to just get tougher.
Acacia... who knows... would love to see them defeated, but there's just no way to really tell how that's gonna come out yet.

overall and in general, it's getting tougher every day... 2004 I think will see some massive streamlining and refining of the biz as a whole. The gold rush is over. Now it's sink or swim.

Definitely - lots of people leaving. Some because they have to, others because they're just sick of the bullshit and don't want to deal with it anymore.
But if you can ride it through, it'll be sweet on the other side of the storm.

Yes, I've had people who have been around for 5 years with a range of success and they're just throwing in the towel or seriously considering it. They figure, I can walk away now with all my money intact. If they continue, they believe the chances they could lose money and waste time increases.

The sky is falling. It's the end of the world!

Yes they will, more for scrubbing and letting affiliates know they are not being cheated. I will hedge my bets on CCbill.

Of course there will be a few smash hit sites like bangbus or CFF. There always is and always will be.

No they will not stop all together.

I do not know, I am in the US. Would that effect me?

AVS will need either a massive overhaul or they shall perish.

I hope they loose, if not anticipate on a whole lot less newbie webmasters, and free porn and wait ummm that could be good :winkwink: fuck it they better loose.

Yes, to many of them offer shit membership areas. I would be pissed to holy hell if I signed up for many of them. Volume and playing with how they process may help but not for all of them.

Yes, lets hope that someone can develop actual ATM transactions.

I think 3rd party will be around but not in the same capacity. It seems Visa is heading in the direction of forcing each webmaster or company to use their OWN merchant account rather than a 3rd party merchant account. It's a lot easier for them to monitor and shut down when not in compliance. Nowhere to hide type thing.

I think many are willing to do this. 3rd party will still be around to provide a lot of gateway services and possibly to continue processing for large reliable clients with no history of chargeback problems?

a new selfmade multimillionaire webmaster named Thrawn$ will be around :thumbsup

I don't do design; just a simple webmaster and paysite owner. :) It *does* affect me of course, but I try to switch gears quickly and I really do work hard to keep my ear to the ground so I have some idea of what's coming.

Mainly though the reason why I'll be able to survive is because I *don't* have a big office staff to pay, a huge house and a bunch of exotic cars to pay for, etc. - those guys are going to be hit hard and I feel for 'em. No matter whether they're making 500 signups a day or 20 signups a day, they've got a ton of shit to pay for. What's a mere annoyance to me could be a huge blow to them.

Hey, anyone can do it though, keep your head up. Look at Quiet. No affiiates, no fucking with the surfer, low chargeback rate, and one of the most successful sites on the net.
If he can do it, anyone can do it - you just gotta want it badly enough.

absolutely... this is what I was thinking when the first Visa slam happened, with the $750 registration fee thing... it just felt like that was the beginning of something bigger, and now it looks to be leading exactly where you just said. Not surprising at all really. Looks alot like a multi-phased kind of thing.

Its a great time to buy prime Internet Real Estate.

:Graucho

That's terrific Carrie. I agree with your sentiments. Anything I've ever run has been above board toward surfers and webmasters alike. Being fair, honest, and providing service have always reaped the best results.

I don't share the pessimism for the future of 3rd party processing in general.

A disturbing number of 3rd party processors have bitten the dust in the last couple of weeks, but remember, these were the people who tried to flout Visa. I could be wrong, and I'm certainly not speaking on any insider info here, but it may be that they are the only ones who will die.

Unless you know something I don't, we're all in "wait and see" mode.

:2 cents:

True. When one looks at which 3rd party processors are gone, they're only ones that 1) didn't ask for $750 Visa fee and 2) processed content that Visa does not want to be associated with (bestiality etc). The others appear to be doing ok, they're just having to constantly adjust to everchanging rules handed down to them.

Just don't post the "address" on GFY. :)

Probilling and Verotel still don't charge the fees. I think ProBilling might stop processing Visa but keep going with its other products (their instant check option seems to be popular and 'strong').

Ibill... they're trying, but I don't see them lasting.

PSW Billing just sounded the infamous death knell... "we've frozen funds but just for a little while". I hope they don't go down, some good folks over there. But it's not looking good, and the # of webmasters who jump ship after today's announcement is going to hurt them.

are alot of people really bailing out? I can understand someone new getting totally overwhelmed with everything there is to be compliant with now.... but is there just too much heat in the industry nowdays that established people are feeling it's time to jump ship?

i mean.... most businesses aren't what I would call easy, and yeah, there's alot of shit to deal with in porn.... but is it really that bad already?

No ... no it's not. I wouldn't trade my job to go back to "the real world" if anyone offered me twice the money.

I'm sure there will always be more program breakthroughs.

I think visa etc will still be around, but just in another form with different rules and guidelines.

AVS will get an overhaul.

Acacia will loose, after a long time of battling in courts.

I'm sure many programs will be shut down or forced to take a pay cut to keep below 1% CB

I'll be better off, i have interests in other industries, so no matter which way the egg rolls i'm fine :-)

so long as they're making a profit, i'll leave my sites up, i've been making a profit for the last 3 years and don't expect that to change within the next 2 years atleast. good luck!

IE.... Me.

Actually thats been my trend for some time now.

ask funkmaster when he wakes up

These days I spend about half my time at the office working on non internet related ventures. When away from work and the computer, my mind is 100% on non internet ventures. I do alot of reading.

I can honestly say that if the internet died tomorrow, I could maintain my lifestyle for atleast 10 years. I could maintain a very nice lifestyle for 25+ years. Smartest thing I ever did was hire a financial consultant and spent hours up hours working with him.

I see Brad and Amp getting together for some mutual masturbation.




:winkwink:

what is disaster for some is opportunity for others.....

I look to do just fine in '04...the rest of '03? who knows? ;-)

will any of the Top 10 affilliate programs get bounced by VISA in 2004?

Jettis and CCBILL are my bets for longest survival among 3rd party processors.

Yes, I can think of a couple offhand that have no chance to get under 1%. They will ride off into the sunset, already rich.

I spent weeks coming up with ways to lower my cb ratio .1%, I could not imagine having to lower it a full 1% with huge volume.

name some programs

Brad seems to be the most pessimistic.

Brad, what effect do you think all the changes will have on us small time resellers? The way I see it is the main commodity we deal with is traffic, and whoever is left standing will still be willing to buy that traffic from us right?

I also don't see 3rd party processing going away, if VISA wanted to make every paysite owner get their own merchant account they could have done that already right?
Why classify the processors as IPSP's and register every url and all that mumbo jumbo, just to make everyone get their own merchant account a year later.
Looking at it from VISA's point of view it doesn't make any sense to me.
I do however think that ALOT of paysite owners will lose their ability to process PERIOD, through an IPSP or otherwise.

I'm not worried..I'm with tgp(the future?) and if 3-party billing goes down it's always a way around...

:thumbsup

For God's sake, Carrie, stop blowing smoke up our asses. You talk like you are a big porn expert. Shit! You work out of your home with a husband and two kids running around. You kiss ass to get jobs from Net-pond and all-of-em. Everyone knows you took a job away from another webmaster on Net-pond.

Just go away and take your bullshit with you. You know a few technical things. So what! We all do. You are a bullshitter and your word means nothing.:BangBang:

Any ISPS that is accepting cross border transactions will be gone - that is happening now

Whoever can come up with a new exciting concept and the proper promotion will be the breakthrough's - again look for the adult internet to follow televisions lead, maybe a American Porn Star type thing (like American Idol)

Visa will most likely still be processing adult on-line entertainment transactions with more rules and regs (remember we have to pay $375 this year)

Visa international will most likely adopt most of Visa USA regs

AVS will need a serious overhaul at the least, in it's present form they are almost like a aggregator

Acadia will still be tied up in the courts

Programs won't go away because they are over 1% CB, they will go away behind the weight of the fines from being over 1% CB. Some will reform (new companies, new sites, new URL's, new front people) and come back, others will just walk - Partnership programs may have more market share if too many PPS programs get hit with fines and close or have to change their business model

Check processing will be more popular but until there is real time verification it won't replace CC's. Epassporte could increase market penetration once they have a model for recurring payments in place.

I'll be about the same, maybe some growth depending on how much the industry shakes out. My non-internet interests will grow (depending on the US economy)


MicroChick = Confucy

It's all about dollars.com. You'll see :)

i don't ever make bets on 3rd party processors. but i'm not so sure about your prediction :)

First they came for the processors but I never owned a processing company, so I didn't speak up.

Then they came for the paysite operators but I owned a TGP,
so I didn't speak up.

Finally I realized there was no one left to sell my traffic too
and by that time there was no one left to speak up

someone already tried that angle with acacia :)

I made a good living off tgp 3-4 months ago, now I don't touch it because its next to useless.

What adult?
Oh, adult online biz which existed up to 2004? Nothing to predict :(

focus on quality and giving the surfer what they want

without porn.. there is alot of horny fuckers that will need to get off some where else.. i think it would fuck the world up when a few million horny men running around looking to get off some where..

My Prediction: In and after 2004 i'll still dig on porn.