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WASHINGTON (AP) - Gasoline prices will rise another nickel a gallon nationwide before the end of June but return to current levels before fall, the government said Thursday, warning of possible price spikes especially in the Northeast and West Coast markets.

The Energy Department estimated that the average price at the pump - $1.78 a gallon in the latest survey this week - would continue to rise in the coming months, averaging about $1.81 a gallon for the three months ending in June.

Prices over the April-September period were expected to average $1.76 a gallon nationwide, a record high for the summer driving season and 20 cents a gallon more than last year, according to the Energy Information Administration summer fuels report released Thursday.

EIA Administrator Guy Caruso warned prices were likely to be significantly higher in some regions, such as California, where gasoline has been averaging $2.12 a gallon with little sign of relief anytime soon.

But sticker shock at the pumps is not keeping people off the highways.

The EIA estimated that demand for gasoline this summer will average 9.32 million barrels a day, a record high. Both the number of drivers and the miles they travel will continue to increase as they have year after year. Average motor vehicle fuel economy will be "virtually unchanged" from last year, the agency said.

Caruso expressed concern over the potential impact that new environmental regulations and the ban on the use of the MTBE additive in New York and Connecticut would have on Northeast gasoline prices.

The requirement this year for gasoline with lower sulfur content as well as increased use of corn-based ethanol as a substitute for MTBE may restrict imports of gasoline into the Northeast and force up prices as refiners try to meet what is expected to be growing demand.

"We're looking at that very carefully," Caruso told a conference of state energy officials.

Gasoline imports play a significant role in meeting demand in the Northeast, but many foreign refiners have not made the changes to meet the new U.S. specifications and might choose to ship gasoline elsewhere.

In any case, said Caruso, "crude oil, gasoline and natural gas markets are expected to remain tight" this year because refineries for the most part are running all out and demand is expected to increase.

"We're in a very robust, strong period of (economic) growth" which will increase gasoline demand and keep prices high, he said.

The EIA analysis predicted that crude oil prices will average about $33 a barrel through the summer and stay above $30 a barrel the rest of the year and perhaps beyond. After reaching a 14-year high of more than $38 a barrel last month, oil prices have fluctuated widely, although staying above $30 a barrel.

The spot price of light sweet crude was just under $37 a barrel Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, about $3 a barrel higher than its close Wednesday.

On other topics, the EIA in its Thursday energy forecast said:

- The spot price of natural gas will likely stay around $5.40 per thousand cubic feet through next year. While natural gas inventories are better than a year ago, they remain about 10 percent below the five-year average. A few years ago, wholesale natural gas sold for less than $3 a thousand cubic feet.

Caruso said the high cost of the fuel last year caused a 5 percent drop in demand.

- Demand for coal for electricity production is expected to grow over the next two years, with coal prices projected to increase over 3 percent this year.

- Electricity demand will increase nearly 2 percent this year because of accelerated economic growth.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040408/D81QT6CG1.html