the effect of 2257 on the porn biz...
 

... is sort of summed up by this afghan trafficker's analysis of the current crackdown on opium farming in the region...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/latimests/20...einafghanistan

Re the quote from the opium trader: I guess he didn't factor in the HIGH "protection" money he has to pay to warlords like Khan and Dostum. This may cut in heavily into his profits. Also, this assumes he won't get caught in the crackdown.

it's going to be awhile until most people get out. i think a lot of people won't comply and it's going to take a long time for court dates etc...

Errr -- SURE, but..

No doubt the price of a kilo of cocaine would also drop if it were suddenly a legal substance. Illegality does increase margins, but the rigors of operating under such conditions probably won't appeal to many. That's not quite the silver lining you suggest -- :) -- if the effect of 2257 is to put us squarely back where we (and numerous other legally embattled industries) have been before -- hanging by a thread that is maintained by a tiny handful of "bandits" who have balls enough to risk everything for the upside. I'd rather see an adult insdutry where 1 million people make $100,000/year LEGALLY than one where 100 people make $1 billion/year ILLEGALLY -- :2 cents:


j-

As always, AWESOME post, Jack.

it appeals to non-us webmasters and service providers (hosts, cc processors etc...)

it also appeals to big players who have the resources to comply with the regs

just like the newbie afghan opium dealer, the little porn peddler is going to be the one that will take a hit

Of course they are -- anyone in a position to capitalize on the effect of anti-competitive legislation would. Why do you think True.com was trying to make all the dating sites do background checks? Well, the "brass tacks" answer is PR, but if they had succeeded in their bid they would have a corner on the market. This is all well and good, and you might say that any opportunity to make a lot of money should be taken and measured as a scuccess. But what would happen to online dating if the True legislation had passed? It would not thrive and diversify in the way so many of us in that biz are hoping to witness and influence. It would begin to "die" and morph into somthing less universally appealing, and, therefore, would be relegated to a smaller market. So, I guess I'm not disagreeing with you that there WILL be opportunities to make a lot money, if you're the only guy in the room with his arms untied. What I'm saying is it's tragically shortsighted to get happy because the price of lifeboats on the titanic is rising -- :)




j-

It's an ill wind that blows some good out for some.

Hard to estimate the value, but suspect there will be a major cleaning out of the US market. Any corp or individual who is in the adult biz for the long haul will plan whatever they need to do and accept US law or move out to more favorable locations.

Frankly.. I just don't understand the mentality behind this legislation - tho sure, it's not for the face reasons. But it does mean a detrimental effect in areas such as US hosting and several others, and this is simply not sense for any economy.

There are several areas where biz is leaving the US.. it started with card processing because the US Admin via influences, kindly granted VISA US "rules" which would not, and were not, accepted by any other country. The underlying element of this is "control" since VISA now has records of specific websites surfers join and this helps any prosecutor who can now instigate charges from his desktop.

Forgetting all the other current "invasions of privacy" being imposed on US folks, - this "new 2257" does nothing whatsoever to protect children further - tho that may be the flag-waving excuse. When you stand back and look inwards... it is a very hypocritical act using abused children as the excuse.

So.. bottom line... "adult" will, over a period of time, move to other countries from the US - this has already started prior to the 2257 amendment - and it's not going to stop anyone trading seriously in this area. The adult biz is no different to any other - it's a long haul and not a sprint.

2257 is the end of the adult internet! moving into heroin is a possibility

Now your talking serious biz spanno!

Wanna buy a submarine and ship some shit from Columbia? :1orglaugh

possible... thats a problem.

Do I need to apply for a license under USC 2296 for permission to operate a submarine?

I'm not in US territory and was thinking this would not apply... but suppose the object is to serve the US market. I'll ask the DOJ for guidance on this international trade deal...

hahahaha

in the USA only

bye bye ccbill, hello netteller :upsidedow

I think people have to take a deep breath and chill, everything will be fine

neteller rocks :)

I have no issues with them, so they are fine by me