CNN says Clinton won the TX Primary
 

Amazing really. They kept saying all night that Obama would take it with the city vote.

Clinton won Texas?

I thought it felt damn cold..

Does that mean she takes the lead?

Isnt Texas the biggest state

no she will not take the lead. the delegate count will be a wash. obama will still be in the lead.

I don't know about Hell, but it was mighty cold here in Texas. Snow in March yesterday.

Ah.

"Hillary Clinton wins key Texas, Ohio primaries, plus Rhode Island, CNN projects;..."

exactly i said, "CNN says...." not that all the votes have been counted.

even with the caucuses?

Yes, well, it's still a projection. "CNN says" still conveys differently than "CNN thinks that". :thumbsup

Primary not the caucus

good for her!

obama win that?

56-44 obama but too early to say

She is really close, not a win yet.

That isn't too bad.

he was that far ahead in the primary early on and looks like he lost that

Well, they said that either Clinton or Obama could win every primary and caucus left and neither would have enough delegates to clinch it.

Should be an interesting convention . . . leading up to McCain's ultimate victory.

Another reason to hate Texas and Ohio. She is gonna fuck this thing up and McCain will be our next president. She really is just about her power.
Shit I will vote for McCain over her and I am a liberal.

She needs to win every primary by over 62% just to catch him in delegates. That ain't gonna happen.

I almost have as much hatred for her now as I do for Bush. Imagine if he would have lost 11 in a row, she would have been screaming for him to get out of the race.

It is her fault? You are funny.

It does look like she'll squeak out a win in the popular vote there, however, the guerrilla math Texas uses to apportion delegates and the fact that 1/3 of the delegates come from the caucus (we won't know the caucus results until this weekend or possibly even later than that) mean that Obama will most likely win more delegates from Texas, and that today's overall result will be a wash in delegates for the two campaigns.

From the Clinton Campaign:

The Path to the Nomination

This election will come down to delegates........Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived ?momentum.?..........As history shows, the Democratic nomination goes to the candidate who wins the most delegates ? not the candidate who wins the most states....

Mark Penn
Clinton Campaign Chief Strategist

http://thepage.time.com/penn-memo-th...he-nomination/


If Clinton wins every state left by a margin of 60%-40% (extremely unlikely, bordering on impossible) she still won't be able to catch Obama in pledged delegates.
The only person she's helping by staying in this race is John McCain. She can't win the nomination without finding a way to "overrule" the will of the voters....and if she does that, the nomination isn't worth having because half of Democrats will stay home or cast a protest vote for someone like Ralph Nader on election day.

Now she wants to count Florida and Michigan even though she was the only one on the ballot.
She knew the rules before those elections and now she wants to change them. It's fucking slimy and shows her real side. Look at how she is winning, no big cities all the dumbfucks in the rural areas.

I hope Clinton wins!

They said that either Clinton or Obama could win every primary and caucus left and neither would have enough delegates to clinch it.

You know what's funny is that last night I had a Swiss friend over here and he is able to grasp the fact that just because a democrat will vote for Clinton or will vote for Obama, it does not mean that they would vote for either one.

The Democrats are their own worst enemy.

once again the Democrats punch themselves in the nuts - they needed to crown Obama their nominee today the same way the Republicans have their man. Now the Democrats are going to have a circus of a convention which is going to be divisive as hell and ugly because race is going to be a part of it - turning off a big part of the electorate - and when a winner emerges it will be late summer while McCain's campaign has had months and months to oil its machine.

A msg I left for you in the old thread we were having.
http://www.gfy.com/fucking-around-and-business-discussion/810807-question-elections-citizen-3.html LMK.


Dean is going to have to do something about MI and FL.

Pennsylvania is a closed state with demographics like Ohio in many respects. Obama won't win that one.

Today we see the difference about primaries and caucuses where you had the same state on the same day and the same voters do both. She wins by 4% in the primary and he will win the caucus....

After today she also takes back the lead in overall popular vote.

He has an argument on the delegates right now, but she also has the argument about the crucial swing states needed in the GE.

And before he was arguing super delegates should vote with their constituencies but now they want it to go to the pledged delegate lead.

This is FAR from over and it will be interesting to see what Dean ends up doing with MI and FL.

And with the Rezko trial started you are going to hear his name mentioned a lot with that story with the possibility of more dirt being uncovered on the topic daily. This could be a long 7 weeks until Pennsylvania for him.

He also has the issue of painting himself into a corner with his change and no more politics as usual campaign theme. It really limits him from punching back hard without putting that image on the line with the public, but if he doesn't do it, he will look weak. Not a great spot to be in and a tough decision coming up within their campaign.

At any rate its been an interesting night and watching Chris Matthew, Keith Olbermann and Jack Cafferty seething today as they saw the internal exit polls and knew what was to come tonight was worth it. If looks could kill, they were sick to their stomaches and bubbling with rage all day.

That statement sums up the situation perfectly.

None of the stuff you mentioned about the style of the campaign matters....Rezko, same old politics....whatever....they don't matter, we're counting votes here.

I agree something should be done about Michigan and Florida....the only thing that's fair to do is to have a re-vote. Counting the previous results when nobody campaigned there.....and in one state hers was the only name on the ballot is lunacy.

It doesn't matter who wins what states, and what states are big and what states aren't. This is the friggin DEMOCRATIC party for crying out loud.....the person with the most votes and the most delegates after ALL 50 STATES have voted should be the winner.
Period, the end, case closed.

It doesn't matter who you think will be the better candidate for a certain issue, or against the other side, or who can win what state against what candidate.....if more people vote for candidate A than vote for candidate B....candidate A should win.
Anything else is just slimy political bullshit that will tear the party apart.

:2 cents:

For the third time in this thread, either Clinton or Obama could win every primary and caucus left (including today's) and neither would have enough delegates to clinch it.

Ok so you're saying that the democrats just shouldn't have a nominee this time around since nobody got to 2025? We should just concede to the republicans now?

In a situation like this logic would dictate that the person with the most votes and the most delegates should win the nomination. Unfortunately there is no tiebreaker mechanism in place the way there is when nobody gets an electoral college majority.

If it didn't matter then he would have won tonight, he didn't. He got beat up big this weekend and it showed up in the polls. If you don't think Rezko matters, then you're obtuse.

Anyway you never took me up on my challenge. If Obama gets the presidency I will give $100 to your favorite charity if you do the same to mine if he doesn't get the Presidency.

If you believe in your boy and that things don't matter then its a free $100 for you.

Well there is technically a tie breaker in place and that is the super delegates. It is actually reason they exist.

That said I think all states should count and all votes should be taken first and I think its the super delegates job to sit down look at all facts and decide who is more electable in GE based on what all 50 states showed and what is needed in the GE to get the nomination.

Remember if you redo MI and FL then it opens up the possibility of someone getting enough pledged delegates without needing the super delegates. Though it would be tough for either to make that happen but it would make it plausible.

I'm not laying a bet on the election, even if the money does go to charity.

As for Rezko and NAFTA and the other shit...it really didn't matter.
2 weeks ago Hillary was ahead by 20 points in both states....tonight she won one state by 8 points and the other by 4. Only in the land of Clinton spin is that a "loss of support" for Obama, and a "momentum changing event" in her favor.

Today wasn't a "momentum changer" for either candidate. This was simply a case of states voting that had demographic advantages for Clinton, whereas in the prior 11 contests there were demographic advantages for Obama. If Texas and Ohio came right after Super Tuesday the results likely would have been the same.

Hell, in this memo that was "accidentally" attached to a news release to Bloomberg right after Super Tuesday
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Aldqg&refer=us

Obama's advisers are predicting victories in 19 of the remaining 27 Democratic primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the campaign document. The final contest is a primary June 7 in Puerto Rico.

Even though they fought hard for the states and played the spin game like they were supposed to (in order to keep fundraising up and turnout to Obama events high) they never thought they would win tonight......and they don't think they'll win in Pennsylvania either.

They do, however, believe that when all is said and done that they will have the most pledged delegates and the most votes, and that's what will matter. :2 cents:

And every single poll showed him gaining and even leading in both states until the heat came and he started looking like every politician that ever lived.

BTW she won Ohio by 12% and Texas by 4%. And show me a single poll in the last 10 days that showed anything but him rapidly closing the gap.

I understand the pain when your candidate stumbles. How he reacts from here will be interesting.

Want to talk about the backpeddle and moving the goalposts.

Good luck going forward but your not going to like what comes your way.

But you can certainly enjoy the upcoming Obama wins in Miss and Wyoming. Enjoy them while you can because the beatdown on Penn is going to hurt you big.

Rezko won't hurt just like the NAFTA story wouldn't, but did.

I have to wonder how you arrive at such odd conclusions.

The conclusion to be reached is that while the Republican convention will be a mere formality as far as picking the nominee, so they can concentrate on a platform.

The Democrats on the other hand will not have that luxury.

This is part of the reason that it amazes me that the Democrats feel the need to have open primaries. If they don't think people are voting Democrat just so they can help the weakest candidate get the nomination, they are being extremely naive.

I have yet to hear an analyst that did not say she needed to stop his momentum. Tonight, she did just that.

May the best man win!

The only poll that showed him leading was Zogby, and he's been so off this campaign season it's not even funny.

Yes the polls showed him closing the gap, and that's what he did. She was 20 points ahead and won by substantially less than that.

I love your thinking......Obama's wins in Miss and Wyoming don't really matter, but Clinton winning in PA is gonna "hurt me big"
So you're saying that Obama's wins and votes don't really matter, but Clinton's do?

BTW, there's no pain from me whatsoever. Like I said before, Hillary winning Ohio and Texas was always assumed, just like Obama winning South Carolina and Vermont was always assumed....it's just demographics.

At the end of the day, (and the end of the primary season) Obama will have more votes and more pledged delegates than Hillary, and if somehow she manages to wrestle the nomination away from him, it will tear the party apart and assure McCain of a victory in November.

You can talk about all of the Rezko's and Nafta's you want (most of that stuff isn't 10% of what it's being made out to be anyways) but what's the point in having elections if the person with the most votes doesn't win? If that's the case then we should just go back to party elders picking a nominee in a smoke filled backroom.

Can you count or does this delegate thing continue to elude your mental grasp.

PA has 3+ times as many delegates as WY and MS combined.

That's not true, if the superdelegates broke close to even then we still wouldn't have a candidate with 2025 delegates. So what do you do then?

So it's not a tiebreaker the way the house of representatives is a tiebreaker for the electoral college, because the super delegate votes don't get counted instead of the pledged delegates, they just get added to those totals.

Yes and even if she wins with a landslide 60% of the vote she still would be behind in delegates and the overall popular vote.

Apparently it eludes your mental grasp that the delegates are allocated proportionally, so even a big win in a big state won't allow her to close the sizeable lead he's built up over the last 25+ contests.

Unless Obama gets caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy she will not be able to catch up in pledged delegates or the overall popular vote....so the only way she can win is to somehow get the superdelegates to overrule the will of the voters....and in the meantime she'll be constantly attacking Obama and making John McCain's job that much easier should Obama become the nominee.

cant blame baddog for not understanding.. he is old as dirt!! u old fuck go to a retirement home or something

Well, I have not been tracking the popular vote because the Democrats hold open primaries, so I don't trust them to be very accurate. However, as stated earlier, whether she catches up or not, NEITHER will have enough to clinch the nomination ala McCain.

Funny you say Zogby is not reputable here.

But in this thread/post you ask specifically for a reputable poll like Zogby or Gallup.....



http://www.gfy.com/13849625-post90.html

Open primaries and caucuses are just ridiculous for either party to have when choosing a nominee. I understand caucuses are far far cheaper to run and a big reason they take place in primaries.

Pennsylvania will be a good test for Obama to show just how much of a democrat base he truly has as its a closed primary. Based on all the previous primary exit polls I think we already know the answer on this one.

I'm not sure if Obama just has a delegate lead that the supers will switch if it is close.

The Dems HAVE to win the big states, I think Ohio proved tonight they don't like Obama all to much... that's not good for Dems in the general election.

Oh yea and if Obama is bitching now about Clinton running a negative campaign.. wait until he tangles with the Republicans.

Ohio is a true swing state. Didn't they say it has been 100 years since a candidate has lost OH and still won the presidency?

That's a mischaracterization of the process. You should really know what you're talking about before you come in here criticizing the democrats.

STATES have open primaries, not democrats.
If a state chooses to allow people to vote in whatever primary they want, that's their prerogative.

In the states where alot of republicans and independents voted in the democratic primary, theoretically there could have been alot of democrats and independents voting in the republican primary.

The fact that the republican race has been all but over for awhile now is the reason these voters are getting involved in the democratic race.....but that fact that they're allowed to is something decided by state governments, not the democratic or republican parties.

Also.....if the republicans didn't have winner take all primaries then McCain wouldn't have clinched the nomination yet.....as a matter of fact Romney would still be in the race.

And yes, since neither candidate will be able to reach the magical number of 2025, and there is no definitive tiebreaker in the rulebook, then both the logical and right thing to do is to nominate the person with the most votes and delegates.

BTW after tonight Clinton will have made the popular vote a dead heat if not in the lead on that front. your right about the delegates. And the reason he has the delegates and not winning big in the popular vote is he won red state cacuses with low turnout but got good net gains in delegates there.

She netted +330,000 votes tonight in the popular vote.