| spunkmaster |
03-05-2008 01:37 AM |
Clinton can't grab victory without her friends' help
Even if Hillary Clinton wins tonight's primaries, she still has an increasingly difficult road ahead. Going into this evening's results, Clinton needs an average margin of victory of 16 points in every remaining primary to tie Obama's pledged delegate total. If Clinton wins by fewer than 16 points, then her job only gets tougher going forward. According to our delegate calculator, two 10-point wins in Ohio and Texas would inflate her margin-of-victory target to 20 points, which will be a hard margin to achieve once Obama visits Pennsylvania and North Carolina (the two richest states remaining, delegate-wise).
But there is some good news for Hillary: If she wins tonight, pledged delegates definitely won't decide this contest. With two Clinton victories, neither candidate will be able to reach 2,025 delegates?the number needed for a majority?without the help of superdelegates. (Obama had a slim chance of doing so coming into the evening.) Currently, Clinton has a 44-superdelegate lead, according to CNN, but Tom Brokaw is reporting that Obama's campaign may be set to announce a 50-superdelegate envoy this week. That would make both candidates about even in superdelegates, which would make Clinton's climb even tougher.
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...
|
