Once ADULT is over...
 

...and only restricted to the 2 or 3 big players who no longer share the cake with affiliates...as they have enough of their own traffic (tubes etc) and no need to produce new content, only pushing dating and cams ...most will have fled to some island with enough bank anyways.......but what will you do?

better chance of tubes being over than adult

Work for the man

ehhh

industries evolve fast and even faster on the internet

1-2 more years and the paysite model is gone ( some ultra niche sites might still be about)

Ask a 1970s porno film producer and he will tell you that the end of making money from porn was the internet.

Like you said, it evolves, and it evolves fast, TOO fast for anyone (or 3) people to completely control it.

The industry will die when sex becomes non interesting to the average person (not in our lifetime) Until then it will just evolve.

exactly it evolves, see tubes, user generated content (yuvutu)... the next step is cutting out the affiliate as he is no longer needed

I guess you don't promote cams.

See sig.

How will they cut me out?

Every one of them wants my traffic. Almost everyone of them needs it.

As long as affiliates have traffic, programs will pay for it.

EDIT = Of course until I/we realize that sending all them niche sales to paysites is silly, and create my/our own, thus losing another real affiliate and adding another niched paysite. But I have no plans of doing that yet.

no offence but you haven't been here long enough to ever be noticed before.
But you come out with this question?

buy EXPORT... :) less competition

well looking at the current state of certain big players and the way they abuse credit cards it is only a matter of time until visa and the rest impose huge restrictions...

and even today...how much do programs really pay for their traffic from afiliates?

buzz buzz buzz

the cut off is when all porn goes via tubes which most big players are behind

money will be made via cams and dating

so yeah...maybe tubes will start producing porn as a bonus once the stolen stuff is played out

Tube sites will find ways to steal your traffic like they steal you content:2 cents:

no offence taken

I have just seen the transitions from print to bbs people selling scans to paysites and tgps to tubes...what is the next step?

just every industry evolves, be it by legal means or not, hate it or love it!

these might have been some juicy years for the adult online industry...that will just not continue...

what do you predict if i am so way off the mark?

While it's true that successful programs must develop their own properties, there is still no way for them to cut affiliates out all together. At least not right now. Who would turn away all that traffic? It would be crazy to and nobody is going to turn away all that money, no matter how much they may want to do away with the whole affiliate system.

I am not worried the goverment will save us! They saved the tycoons of wall street and the bank tycoons as well plus now they are adding the auto barons! The porn pimps will be saved next, just get in line for the goverment handouts!

Mr. Romance

The Adult industry is like the Medical Industry or the Agriculture/Food Industry, in which I mean it's one of the few industries that survives on the primal instinct of man.

Just like humans will never stop getting sick, dying, or having babies, and human will never stop getting hungry or needing food. A human will never stop enjoying sex, or needing to release.

So as long as their are humans, there will be porn.

The question you need to ask yourself is not what will I do when it's gone, it's how can I monetize on this ever evolving industry. You need to be creative, cutting edge, and provide a product that others simply can't.

Who do you think has carried the evolution of the internet for so long? With the exception of video sharing, almost every break though technology was first used in the adult industry, with mainstream catching up along the way.

Sure the paysite model will fade out, but the idea of paying for porn wont. Money drives this planet.

Everyone is complaining about tube sites putting you out of business, but I predict the paysite model as we know it now will fade out, but in comming time you'll see a new paysite model take it's place. I wouldn't be surprised if the "affiliates" become the surfers.

If user generated content is the new rage, sponsors will start paying users for their amateur and submitted content. Websites like sextapecash will prevail as content providers.

Since tube sites are free, they rely heavily on advertising to make income. Who advertises on tube sites? Sponsors.

Without sponsors or advertisers, there are no tubes. It's all just a vicious cycle that will terminate anyone not ready to handle it.

So if there's only 3 big players left and they don't need to produce new content, how will they update their tube sites? Seeing as no one else will be producing new content as well, they won't have any to steal.

well maybe not from one day to the next...
but check out the responses from some of the big boys on here accused of extreme x-sales and credit card abuse...they know they are guilty and give half assed excuses and no real answers...judging by this they really do not care about affiliates who did test signups who might care about the reputation of their own sites...

only time will tell

There is an old documentary type movie by Alan Funt (the maker of Candid Camera) called "What Do You Say To A Naked Lady". In it, there is a part where they place a semi-nude woman out in public to gauge peoples reactions. Most people do take a long hard look but none of them break stride and all of them carry on their way and make off on their own business. Then, they put the same woman semi-nude in an enclosure with no way to see inside other than a larger than average sized keyhole. In the second instance, people stop to look inside and a crowd starts to gather outside the keyhole and they can't seem to help themselves but to want more.

Just want to point out, none of us really expect them to "admit" to any of that behavior on a cached and constantly read public message board. That would be nailing their own coffin.

Since that will never happen. I do not need to worry about it.
:)

If you truly believe that the largest online adult companies control the fate of all the whole adult online market.

You need to find another business.

:2 cents:

adult isnt going anywhere

People have been saying that much longer than 1-2 years ago. Hasn't happened.

The only thing disappearing is the 'gravy train' for the whale, or super affiliate, and the millions in regards to cash money for the single monolith who could dominate.

I know a fuckin retard back in '98 that used to say, "This adult internet stuff is a sinking ship. It will last maybe 2 years at most"

That fuckin retard still posts here, says he doesnt do adult but one of his split personalities says he has pornstar traffic.

I was close to cresting 1000 new sales a month (60% PPS sales, 40% to revshare) 2-3 years ago. When I was doing it I was still small potatoes and certainly no whale. (for the most part).

I would say an affiliate capable of this today is certainly classified as a 'whale'. I don't think its because there is an end drawing near, its just becoming harder for the average affiliate to pull numbers, and the traffic a little trickier to convert.

I still believe I can build back up to 1k sales per month, but NOT with my game and resources as they stand. Its just not possible to do the same things and draw the same traffic with what was enough 2-3 years ago.

Completely agree with you on all points.

When I brought up that most affiliates would be cut out a few years ago and a few times since then I ended up tared and feathered every time. Also got hit with the same damn responses of: If I have traffic they still will pay for it... Traffic matters... blah blah. Even when I said those with large quantities would be OK or get deals, the majority of small affiliates would be taken out.

I said in some ways affiliates were cutting their own throats by asking or demanding to much from sponsors. Many of which are either short sided or willing to give everyone as much rope as needed to hang. Eventually it would become cheaper per join or whatever criteria they use to generate those sales in house than by affiliates. They just needed the time to generate the damn traffic networks. Hell if you wanted to really fuck with people, the next logical step would be to kill ratio's but that is giving to many people to much credit.

In my mind the industry only needs 4 areas to survive and 1 of those are optional.
1. Traffic.
2. Content.
3. Way to bill/monetize.
4. B2B solutions.

Notice no affiliates? Sure some may still exist in number 1. Affiliates have been loosing traffic now for some time. Beyond that many are using sponsor resources to generate it in the first place. Sponsors themselves are also producing more and more of their own traffic. It comes from the same pool.

Only large difference is now we have tube sites hoarding all the traffic. Sure they are using porn content to sell webcam, dating, misc., and some adult sites - they fill the role of number 1 just fine. Only issue they currently have is that they are perceived to be illegal due to content theft. In same token many tell others that they must evolve, well can I ask what happens when the tube site also evolves. The next obvious step for them is legal content. When they evolve to this it would fill all 3 major requirements. They either could self produce or end up going B2B and having others shoot content for them.

In the event that they do indeed end up producing and buying content. Who is left to complain in the industry? Content producers would have a job, money could be made, and customer needs are met. Only people that could/would be left out in the cold would be affiliates. Now very well that the tube sites or whatever incarnation could end up paying affiliates money for whatever traffic you could send them, it would not be a requirement.

This does not necessarily mean the death of all niched or small site owners either. They know their content and customer demands so they will always have some sort of base to sell to, even if hired by others etc. I do know that many of these types of sites are not that affiliate dependant at all right now anyways.

My long term :2 cents: of a possibility.

one of the first pages i made so long ago, was cams, and something tells me i'll be doing live girls pages for a long time lol

adult aint going anywhere

It seems every year people say that the paysite model is dead and affiliates will be cut out and the industry will be down to 2-3 big players within a couple of years. We have been a couple of years from this for a long time now and it has never happened and I don't think it ever will.

Sure, tube sites have cut some people out of the pie, but eventually they will stagnate. Why? Simple. We are not mainstream. Mainstream sites have an endless pool of potential advertisers. Our main advertiser is porn. We use porn to sell more porn. In the case of the tube sites they use tons of free porn to sell dating and cams. But most of their traffic is book marker and freeloader traffic and they will eventually tire of seeing the dating/cam ads on the site and they will have less and less draw. Think of the TGP model. Many TGPs would have the same banner on top of them for months but eventually it stop preforming so they would replace it. The problem with a tube site is there is nothing to replace dating and cams with. If people tire of that it will be very hard to sell them a paysite membership when they already have more free movies on the tube than the paysite they are selling has. This leave the tubes with a ton of viewers and limited ways to monetize them. Lest we not forget Youtube itself has yet to turn a profit and they have a huge pool of potential advertisers. But the tube argument isn't really the final say all end all in this discussion.

There are tons of people not going to tubes who are looking for porn. Also there are many affiliate programs who are fighting to get affiliates. It seems like a week doesn't pass on this site that there isn't an announcement of some company expanging or starting up and looking for more affiliates.

Look at it like this. If you are an affiliate program and you sign up 100 affiliates that just send you 1 signup a week that is 400 signups a week or 1600 a month. Sure, you aren't going to run out and buy a new Bentley with that, but it can add up and the cost of keeping those affiliates around and happy is pretty low compared to the cost it would take for you to hire people to work just for you and have them develop the resources to create that same number of sales. Not to mention if you hire a couple of people who can generate a large amount of sales on thier own, how long until they leave you behind and go work for someone else. If I can generate 400 sales a month unless you are paying me around 12K a month I'm gone because I can make that selling my traffic to other programs.

the affiliate model is going nowhere anytime soon. The paysite model will be around for a while too. Billing options may change. Upsells, content presentation and sales techniques may change but all paysites need traffic and affiliates are a fast and relativly easy way of getting it.

Things do change, but I know for sure that in 2 years I will be reading posts about how 2-3 years from then there will only be a couple of big companies left, no paysites and no affiliates.

This wont happen...

What will I do?

Well if I'm not retired on an island by then, I will still be shooting content for those who are able to survive and adapt.

learn a lot of things in these tread

Watching porn is an addiction and as long as there is money & traffic in the market, all you need to do is convert it in the best way you know how (which can be completely different for everybody; memberships, ppm, vod, advertisements, sms, etc.).

You make some good points but I have a few questions.

I wonder how long will cams and dating sustain the tube model? You would have to assume that most of the tube traffic is garbage. Most of these are freeloaders, bookmarker types who aren't going to buy anything. Those that may buy stuff will, but eventually seeing the same old ads over and over again for the same products will kill the ratios. When that happens they have nothing to fall back on. They can't sell paysite joins because who would join a paysite when the tube probably has more free content on it then the paysite has? The reasons they have so much traffic is that they are free. The day the tubes start to charge to view them their traffic will spiral down so they could evolve into a paysite of sorts, but then they are going to be in the same boat every other paysite is in.

Legal style tubes with smaller clips could potentially sell paysite joins, but then that is essentially a MGP with the movies right on it so it is nothing groundbreaking and in the end the model will end up looking like the TGP and MGP model. There are a few very big very successful sites and a ton of smaller less successful sites out there.

The last I read most of the big tube sites were not making that much money and were for sale. I think something drastic would have to happen for them to be able to afford to shoot their own exclusive content, but then, like you say, they may need affiliates to help them get traffic.

Building traffic and sales in house is a must for any program that wants to be successful, but still affiliates are a great way to get extra joins, often time many extra joins that you couldn't afford to get building just in house.

Things will change and evolve, they always do. But I think the affiliate is going to be around for a long time to come.

I will sell geek stuff :)

I know who that is lol

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

The problem with the tube sites is that everybody wants to get in.
Be smart, people. There are some big tube sites that make a lot of traffic and therefore make bank.
What is killing the porn biz are the thousands of smaller tube sites which try to imitate the big ones.
What do you have compared to the big names in the tube biz? You have nothing. The only thing you could do to increase your tube sites popularity is showing full-length clips.
If you only show them 30 second clips, surfers will not stick around, because they have the big tube sites to go to.

I agree that the paysite model is dying. If you have solo models "in your stable", you can see that as a good thing.

Wrong on so many levels, I do not even know where to start..

I talked to a content producer yesterday and what he says is true, he, like myself, would just use our own content to make sites, buy content cheap for updates, rinse and repeat. There's no need to really shoot expensive new scenes anymore. Look at the big companies..all have cut back on the "new shoot" budget and some don't update AT ALL.

I have heard the same at some of the shows.
:Oh crap

Sex has been sold since the beginning of humans. The ways have varied over the generations, but it was and always will be there in some form.

I have mainstream projects so the end of online adult will just mean more of a focus on mainstream.

I think a lot of you should start worrying about your own business, and not what the "big players" or the "industry" is doing. You don't actually need anyone else to make a lot of money in this industry, and if you choose, their actions don't have to affect you.

this post is worthless without the "retards" nick :Graucho

That won't happen any time soon.

sex my sextapes out of my trunk :1orglaugh

damn im drunk