Programmers are going to disappear???
 

I'm starting to think that programmers will
not actually disappear but just not be available for contract work the way it is now.

Why?

The game changes too much.

There is just not going to be enough freelancers around in a few years because
the stuff websites are going to be doing is only going to get more complex and bigger
companies are not going to deal with trying to find a freelancer when they "need it now".

I'm not seeing that open source is going to be able to keep up.
Open source programmers are going to be snatched up and put on full time, so
who's going to have time to write open source?

A few years ago webmasters built entire websites without a single script but that
has changed to where people say "I want to build a website, who has the scripts?"

And these scripts got more and more complex. Seems like a trend that will continue.
The scripts that run websites will probably be so complex in 10 years that it would
take a single programmer 18 months to create it.
Looking at 18 months with no pay just to see if the software is profitable is
going to push freelancers into the full time positions.


OK, I might be wrong. It's just a theory.

But when I look at something like NATS, I'm not going to spend anytime trying to make something
to compete with that. It's just smarter to apply for a job with NATS.

That would be the cliff notes to what I was trying to say.

How's your successful tube script?

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:rasta

I don't agree with this... I've found complicated software is becoming easier to create thanks to very large and complicated functions being easily available.

Don't agree, even with the proposed and offered solutions, they will always requiring tweaking, hacking, etc (if they don't provide an adequate API to work from).

freelance programmers work that way for one reason: NO BOSSES!
That will never disappear, trust me!

I partially agree... however

1) there is no reason for a freelancer to go full time if there is more money to be made on as a freelancer...

2) a lot of IT jobs are outsourced in developing countries such as India making it cheaper

That's just how business works, not only on the internet but everywhere. This is why 99% of the people have a job at some big company, while the remaining 1% freelances or runs some small business for a living.

Internet is pretty new, so this concept hasn't stabilized yet, but you are probably right with time it will be harder and harder for the small guys to make a buck on the net. (not just programmers, but anyone that is making a living on the net)

I'll put the tubecgi issue to rest here by stating :

http://sexhanger.com
http://gay-tube.tv
http://schoolgirlstube.com

These webmasters read the directions and understood them and have competent hosting.
One webmaster runs 20 copies on one server with no problem.

Other people don't read and have bad hosting and blame everyone else for their problems.

End of story.


Tube scripts are going to be trumped in the comming months with something much
better. I already know about it and therefore have no interest in tube scripts anymore.

It all depends on how big a project is and how many traffic it recieves. Many small scripts can't handle huge amounts of traffic and some projects are just better of with a script anyway. Serious projects require a team of skilled programmers, especially when it's innovative and not existing yet.

I think the tweaking/etc is going to be a full time job in the future.

Oh, I agree with that. I'm just saying that the offers comming in for full
time with health benefits etc... is going to make a dent in the number of
freelancers out there.

The money in mainstream programming right now is just getting insane.
100k a year is good money!!

i disagree. i think there will always be a market for good freelance programmers. there is always the debate when instituting a new piece of software whether to "re-invent the wheel" or to use/modify something that is already out there. i don't think that pre made scripts will ever get to the point of being a magic bullet, there will always be someone who wants more. something different or something innovative.

in my experience i would rather spend the time creating something from scratch than trying to massage a previously created piece of software to my needs. maybe this is a personal pride issue as well, being that i am a programmer, because in almost every case something that i make will run much more efficiently and far more stable than any out of the box solution. most premade options are clunky and involve way too much confusing legacy code.

this is alot of how i feel about SaaS as well. yes you can have a solution ready to roll tomorrow, but it usually comes with either too little, or far too much functionality, and the complexity of integrating it in to existing systems can be staggering. for example in the CRM arena Salesforce.com has spawned an entire child industry of contractors and companies specifically designated to spearhead integrating with their systems to existing data structures.

so to summarize while the upfront cost and time requirement to develop custom software solutions can seem like an enticing reason to go with a pre-made solution, the long term drawbacks to out of the box resources outweigh their virtues.

That is the reason I think more full time hiring is going to come.
Looking for freelancers to tweak pre-made code is not going to cut it in 10 years.

The companies that are going to win the dot com race are going to be into
developement rather than waiting to see what pops up in software.

Youtube won(at least the orignal owners) because they developed what we now call tube sites. It's not like tube scripts came about and then youtube happened.
It was the other way around.

for 25/hour hey im willing to work home then at bestbuy ir futureshop. but slowly finding other easier ways to make more....

i am still not convinced. many companies don't have the capital or steady demand for coding to justify hiring a dedicated developer.

only time will tell though.

I agree with your logic. I'm just starting to think that the small companies that
can't hire full time are just going to start to shrink away because they are not
going to be able to find the code they need to compete and contract programming
is going to cost more and more.

I'm looking at the salaries and benefits being offered by mainstream and starting to
think about making that money in just an 8 hour work day instead of 12 or even 16
hours I do now.

I can have a good salary and get the fuck off my computer at 5pm!!!!
Medical, dental, paid vacation, unemployment insurance, sick days, pensions...etc...
No weekends or holidays except for emergencies!!
That's more dates, that's more beach time, that's more life!!!

And last but not least; social security payments :

The employer pays half of it. Right now I pay all of it and people keep saying that
when I retire there will be no money left in social security.
So why pay all of something that might not even be there for me?
Let the employer eat that lost and put my gain in an IRA.

Sooooo you're blaming yourself for not having competent hosting to keep developing your super awesome fantastic tube script? Because if my memory serves me right, you quit because your host shit canned your script.

Interesting thread.....I hope that this will not be the case as there are many amazing programmers out there that do freelance either through themselves or an outsourcing agency. This does not mean they have no boss as the client is always boss. hehehe
That's just my 2 cents. :)

Yep, that's what I told you.
It's true; shitty hosting will kill my scipt.

But you meant one of my host didn't you?

That other host is refunding my money as we speak. :)


:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

If you knew what was going on you'd shut the fuck up.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

I look forward to this day.

Once you eliminate a lot of beer money barons. We can go back to the glory days.

:winkwink:

if i had a nickel for every time i heard that... :2 cents:

"tell me, show me, impress me, and i will cheer for you.. just tell me and i will laugh at you.."

Well, like another poster said. There will still be freelancers but they may be
harder to book. The jobs they will be doing in 10 years are probably going to
be with a contract for 30 days, 180 days etc... because these jobs are going to
be more complex. If this happens then these people are not likely to respond to
$100 php jobs that are posted all the time.

If you knew how to program, you'd shut the fuck up.

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

sortie is the AlienQ of coding

yeah but then you lose the fulfillment of being your own boss.

everything is getting to be so plug in play with frameworks, soon we won't need programmers

Any plug and play thingy is written by a programmer so I don't see how you can get
a plug and play if no programmers are doing it.

Open Office.....all the freelancers and contributors all got hired by big times firms.

Open Office is now stagnant.

That's what I think will start to happen more and more.

The money's too good and no hassles being trolled by jealous failures on message boards.

yeah and they can work from home what they like and when they like..

Poor AlienQ getting lumped in with this idiot. :Oh crap

There are an increasing number of full time telecommuting jobs for programmers.

I mean, if companies can out source to india, then what's the big deal to work
with someone living in the same city?

lol thread is so funny