a quick comparison of search for 'Porn' with old Google and Google Caffeine
 

Old Google

1. pornhub.com
2. keezmovies.com
3. xnxx.com
4. porn.com
5. redtube.com

Caffeine

1. pornhub.com
2. keezmovies.com
3. redtube.com
4. porn.com
5. xnxx.com

actually it gets even more interesting if you go down a little bit further in the serps

just one that caught my eye was Persiankitty.com is 97th in the serps for 'Porn' in regular google, and 8th in serps for the new Google caffeine

any idea when they will switch over?
and if what you see there now is what it will be on google?

I think serps will always be a gradual work in progress with google

So, what's the early theories on what caffeine likes and doesn't like.

Google said they were trying extremely hard not to mess with the results too much with this update but warned that with any update this big shakes up will probably occur. There may be an initial change but things will probably stay mostly the same.

What Google NEEDS to do is further publicize search options...besides the wonder wheel, it provides recent results too. I'd love it if they focused on that and getting people to use it more - my lone mainstream niche site is often like 2nd or 3rd for "past 24 hours" and like 7th or 8th on "past week" on a nearly half-mil search term, but pages down on normal search. :(

I don't understand why pornhub.com is still number 1 !