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-   -   Almost everything I was told about $ was a lie. (https://gfy.com/showthread.php?t=958322)

slapass 03-14-2010 10:07 AM

Almost everything I was told about $ was a lie.
 
Real estate never goes down - yeah right.
Stocks average 10% a year - not for the last decade.
Timing the market does not work - it rocks! See Warren Buffet or George Soros.
Debt is bad - exceptional returns can not be made without debt.
Get a good job and work hard - changing every 3 years is a much better idea.

You can pretty much do the opposite of everything you have heard and do better.

Bman 03-14-2010 10:16 AM

George Costanza Style just do the opposite:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_2Ueh9lrrRz...e_costanza.jpg

2012 03-14-2010 10:36 AM

Listen, pal, they lie to everyone. They lie to the fish. But that doesn't give you any special right to do what you did today.

http://www.charmr.com/images/robertduvallbig.jpg

combson 03-14-2010 10:39 AM

You can never be sure enough what is going next...:2 cents:

fatfoo 03-14-2010 12:08 PM

Earn a dollar. Save a dollar.

Sly 03-14-2010 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slapass (Post 16945401)
Real estate never goes down - yeah right.
Stocks average 10% a year - not for the last decade.
Timing the market does not work - it rocks! See Warren Buffet or George Soros.
Debt is bad - exceptional returns can not be made without debt.
Get a good job and work hard - changing every 3 years is a much better idea.

You can pretty much do the opposite of everything you have heard and do better.

For the past 70 or so years stocks have averaged around 10%. The last 10- 15 years have been very bizarre for both real estate and the stock market. The world has definitely changed.

I don't know much about George Soros but I would say that Warren Buffett does a little bit more than "Time the market".

Good debt is good, can give you the leverage and the money to really grow your business and bring in more profits. It all comes down to the math really. The typical person should strive to be out of debt, most people cannot turn their debt into money.

I agree with the changing jobs. 50 year career's are over with. Take your skills and compound them with additional skills to make you more valuable and you can really see your salary/income jump.

It's a whole new world!

will76 03-14-2010 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slapass (Post 16945401)
Real estate never goes down - yeah right.
Stocks average 10% a year - not for the last decade.
Timing the market does not work - it rocks! See Warren Buffet or George Soros.
Debt is bad - exceptional returns can not be made without debt.
Get a good job and work hard - changing every 3 years is a much better idea.

You can pretty much do the opposite of everything you have heard and do better.

Who ever told you real-estate never goes down is an idiot. Over "time" real-estate will go up, but from year to year or for a stretch of years it can go down.

Stocks average 10% a year. Over historical time (not 10 years) they have averaged around that. Go look at what the stocks did in the 90s. Last year they did a lot better than 10%. If you take a total of the last 20 years you still doing good. If you started in 2000 then you probably not doing well, but in another 10 years you might be back up over 10%.

Are you Warren Buffet or Soros? If not then you might as well go to the casino and gamble if you want to try to time the market. You will lose a lot more often then you win.

Personal debt is bad. Business debt in a lot of cases can be good. It comes down to making money with the bank's money. If you can borrow money at 6% and invest in something that gives you a 10% return then debt is real good. If you run up your credit cards on consumer crap, that is bad.

will76 03-14-2010 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatfoo (Post 16945559)
Earn a dollar. Save a dollar.

If I had a dollar for every time you said that...

slapass 03-14-2010 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by will76 (Post 16945605)
Who ever told you real-estate never goes down is an idiot. Over "time" real-estate will go up, but from year to year or for a stretch of years it can go down.

Stocks average 10% a year. Over historical time (not 10 years) they have averaged around that. Go look at what the stocks did in the 90s. Last year they did a lot better than 10%. If you take a total of the last 20 years you still doing good. If you started in 2000 then you probably not doing well, but in another 10 years you might be back up over 10%.

Are you Warren Buffet or Soros? If not then you might as well go to the casino and gamble if you want to try to time the market. You will lose a lot more often then you win.

Personal debt is bad. Business debt in a lot of cases can be good. It comes down to making money with the bank's money. If you can borrow money at 6% and invest in something that gives you a 10% return then debt is real good. If you run up your credit cards on consumer crap, that is bad.

Real estate can be a bad investment in the long run. It needs to be timed to make sense. I just bought a house on the same block my folks sold a house in 1990. They sold for 90k and I bought this one for 75k. 19 years later! Location is very important and in the long run location can work both ways with very little control on your part.

In that historical 10% is a 5% dividend. Stocks are not paying that now. Might be a new game. I hate that as almost nothing really changes in my opinion but this has had its effect on the market. It is not uncommon for the market to go quiet for a decade (see the 70's). If your peak investing time coincides with that. Then it sucks to be you.

I have several friends who do very well timing the market. But the fact that it works so well implies that it is worth looking at. The market goes up more then down so buying large dips seems to be a no brainer.

I have used debt to expand different businesses several times. The number of businesses like a Google or Microsoft that just start to print money and don't stop are fewer and farther between then ones that need a boost now and then. I was there and I know most of had zero debt on our internet stuff. But in the brick and mortar world, you are unlikely to spin big numbers without borrowing at some point.

slapass 03-14-2010 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sly (Post 16945576)
For the past 70 or so years stocks have averaged around 10%. The last 10- 15 years have been very bizarre for both real estate and the stock market. The world has definitely changed.

I don't know much about George Soros but I would say that Warren Buffett does a little bit more than "Time the market".

Good debt is good, can give you the leverage and the money to really grow your business and bring in more profits. It all comes down to the math really. The typical person should strive to be out of debt, most people cannot turn their debt into money.

I agree with the changing jobs. 50 year career's are over with. Take your skills and compound them with additional skills to make you more valuable and you can really see your salary/income jump.

It's a whole new world!

warren buffet claims one of his best assets is patience. He waits for the stock to come to his price he is willing to pay. He buys out of favor sectors. It is a way of timing. If no one like energy then he is a buyer, if banks are in the shitter, he was making big loans and getting options to boot. Can I do this? probably not but I could big picture it and do better then I do.

I too am very confused on the stock thing as I am huge fan of things staying the same. 10% for 90 years and now it is broken? I did a thing where i figured out how much you would have doing an equal investment in the market for the last ten years. I did it 2007 and the returns were horrible. I did a high, low, and average thing. I did not have data to do 20 years.

slapass 03-14-2010 01:15 PM

well 10% doesn't look too bad I guess - http://www.istockanalyst.com/article...icleid/2803347

kane 03-14-2010 01:16 PM

Real estate is really only in investment if you plan to either quickly improve the quality/value of the property and sell it or you buy it when the market is on a down swing and sell it when it is on an upswing. Otherwise it really is nothing more than a forced savings account for most people. If you live in the house long enough and the value over many years goes up a lot you can make money as well. However, for most people when you factor in the taxes, upkeep, insurance and everything else associated with owning a home most people would have made more money taking that money and putting it into a low yield investment like a CD or a money market account.

As for the job thing, it really depends on the job, how much you make and what your long term goals are. I agree with Sly that there are no 50 year jobs these days. It seems like now once you have been there long enough that you are making good money companies fire you and hire someone younger and cheaper. My neighbor's wife worked for the phone company in the town next to the one I live in. She was there 11 years. New management came in and flat out told everyone that if you had been there longer than 5 years you were a liability to them and you were going to have to prove your value to them or they were going to let you go. It is probably smarter to take what you can from a company then move on, get more money and start somewhere else. Keep trying to move up the ladder and show that you are an asset then move on before they see you as a liability. Of course if you are intending to start your own business in the same field you work in, it isn't a terrible idea to hold onto your same job while you develop your business on the side.

nakeddutch 03-14-2010 01:41 PM

You mean it doesn't grow on trees?!

Well ah shit!



???

http://img2.pict.com/c9/8b/6b/311945...tree704455.jpg

EvilHearts 03-14-2010 02:15 PM

Six months ago was the time to buy back in the stock market.

Now is the time to buy in the real estate market.

slapass 03-14-2010 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EvilHearts (Post 16945775)
Six months ago was the time to buy back in the stock market.

Now is the time to buy in the real estate market.

I think it is still a good time for both on a long term scale. The amazing deals in real estate are gone too. At least where I live. I have been buying real estate for 2 years and it is harder by far this year.

xmas13 03-14-2010 04:14 PM

Quote:

Dr.F., NYC
March 10th, 2009
With a Ph.D from Oxford in the philosophy of science -and a special interest in probabilty theory and the application of statistics- now working in business, I often meet former mathematicians and physicists working in finance. Early into the fad of quantitative analyis I met one who had a simple and seemingly plausible method for identifying favorable stock opportunities. When pressed he said he had backed tested the model for three years and it produced better than average returns; I suggested this was a very limited sample with results that could easily be due to chance. This was a possibility he admitted - I then rephrased my doubts by asking how he would persuade a philospher of science that he had found a real, stable, pattern in the world rather than a chance correlation he replied "I don't have to persuade philosphers of science, I have to persuade investors".

Or as they say "Past performance is no guarantee of future results"...perhaps the single most discussed issue in the philosophy of science since the 18th Century.
:winkwink::winkwink::winkwink:

ilnjscb 03-14-2010 07:18 PM

The people who regularly make money are the people who control the markets, everything else is luck or a general (and therefore reversable) trend.

kane 03-15-2010 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ilnjscb (Post 16946299)
The people who regularly make money are the people who control the markets, everything else is luck or a general (and therefore reversable) trend.

Another thing is that people who make and hold onto money are people who educate themselves on it. They make take educated risks and know how to make something succeed before they ever enter into it. Most people just take a shot in the dark and see what will happen.

The Duck 03-15-2010 12:26 AM

What about the cake? Was that a lie too?

BIGTYMER 03-15-2010 12:29 AM

Start a tube site. ;)

Raf1 03-15-2010 12:45 AM

it's not always the way you say it either... ;)

Sid70 03-15-2010 01:13 AM

US dollar is overpriced. Buy canned SPAM.

BIGTYMER 03-15-2010 01:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adultmix (Post 16946836)
US dollar is overpriced. Buy canned SPAM.

I don't like that taste of ham and pork together.


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