FFN is currently at $4.15, but I think it still has a lot further to go on the downside. The market cap is currently $116 M. I think it should bottom out around $1 - 2 dollars. That's when it'll have a market cap around $25 - $50 M.

If the stock drops to $1-2 dollars, that should be the lowest of the low.

At that point, they can attempt to clean up their assets, which might take a bit. But the stock will stay around that same price throughout.

If they do manage to survive while cleaning up, the stock will go up and stay up for the long term.

It's easy to shit on someone you hate, but they do have a fair chance at holding on IMO :2 cents:

At issue is the 450m debt and the fact that they net to common average loss of 40m. Sales is 350m and the gross number is great. The problems are selling and general 117.11m annual (wtf?) and interest 88m. Those two numbers eat all their gross.

How do you pay 88m interest on 450m? What did they do, go to a loan shark? Put it on their capital one card? if they got better terms on that and cut 20% of their selling and general (like stop sending affiliates on jets with penthouse models) they'd be profitable and their cap would go up to 500m again.

POF (plentyoffish) has been around for many years and has a lot of traffic and is 100% free. But, you don't always find the best looking girls there. Now if you like heavy girls POF is a gold mine for you. I think they should rename that site plenty of whales.

I've never used AFF but ive heard people say they have and have met nice looking girls from it so I suppose some of the profiles are real, good looking girls. I think sites like AFF have taken a hit from social networking like facebook / myspace and free dating sites like POF, but there will always be a market for paid, adult nature hookup/dating where you pay for better quality.

Two Fiddy!!!!

It's still got quite a ways to go lower yet.

Its certainly on its way.

The stock might die, but the health of the company is still fairly strong. They still have 900k + subscribers, if they want to turn massive amounts of profit, they could simply cut a lot of expenses.

They are a very big beast and I am sure they are doing just fine. The stock price is headed downward because there is little shareholder value. Anyone who is taking those shares is an idiot, but hey, there are still ppl taking shares (Jigo City).

Can't hate on AFF really. They tried. And they did get some $. They'll just continue to run the company as is, service the debt, the insiders will continue to take awesome salaries and eventually try to dump their shares for more cash.

Basically, even if the stock price drops or they de-list, AFF isn't going anywhere. It just means their paper shares aren't valuable. If you could go out and convince a bunch of people to give you $50m for no real rights to the company except paper shares, and then those paper shares are only worth $10m, but you're company gets to keep the $50m, whose the winner in that deal and who is the loser?

2.52 close, pretty much on the low of the day, and heading downwards in a pretty constant fashion.

biggy, aff has a problem, which is without influxes of new people the value to the old drops. their problem isnt anything else other than cost of acquiring new customers. when you net $100 from a member and it costs you $140 to get them, you have a problem that cannot be fixed by doing more of the same.

they are ok i guess

"the stock might die but the health of the company is strong" :upsidedow The stock is a good indication of the health of the company. A financially strong company's stock price goes up not drops like a rock and will eventually get delisted.

Also you keep making the same mistake that several other people here do, that don't know what they are talking about. It's not "AFF" it's Friend Finder Network. While AFF has been profitable in the past, it's the penthouse crew that is running the show and it's penthouse's failing mag biz + stupid attornies and countless lawsuits, terrible management etc etc etc that is ruining the company. The same penthouse crew that bought ibill and ran it into the fucking ground. Not to mention there is the 500M of debt that "FFN" created getting AFF and the fact that they are losing money each quarter (that's right sales - expenses = negative income).

Penthouse and Marc Bell can only con people so many times. They already tapped all the banks and investors they could get their hands on and they are still 500M in the hole. Tapping everyday stock buyers via the nasdaq was their last avenue to turn to. They running out of people to borrow from and their big fat high interest loans are coming due soon. At best the company will go bankrupt and be piece mealed out to try to re cope some money for investors, but just like ibill went down, those of you who are really owed the money at the end will get screwed again.

The same company that got them put through for their ipo at $10 a shares reports that the company's shares will be worth $14 a year for now LMAO... there are bigger crooks then in this industry... $14 a share a year from now??? It is dropping like a rock down to $2.50 and wont even be listed a year from now much less worth $14....

I wonder who lends them money at this point?

someone who doesnt plan on getting it back

Investor turn porn site owner .. cool

$2.42... another 4% haircut today.

http://plentyoffish.com

All my pervy friends use this to hook up constantly. Men, Women and Couples.

Totally free as far as I know.

If only stocks worked that way; when you issue a stock and make statements about its value, you make yourself vulnerable to CA lawsuits if it drops in this fashion. "taking 50m from a bunch of rubes" has consequences, and many of those rubes have lawyers. To properly defend yourself, you'll spend millions. They don't have millions. The real issue is the debt and their S&G. Reduce those and the stock will head up and diminish exposure to this kind of potential liability.

Stock price moves up and down by the 'perceived' value of the company, not the real or actual value. Sometimes it does move with actual value, when markets act rationally. Many times markets act irrationally. It moves up when more people buy the shares then sell, and vice versa. If you deny this, then you really don't understand the market.

Last I checked they were paying the debt down, and yes, they could go bankrupt, but once again, what does that truly mean for the operations of the company. It's all financial games, but if your an insider, typically you come out ahead, no matter what the situation. That's the problem with the stock market, it's a game for insiders.

Correct on the lawsuit. I believe one law firm has already issued an investigation into them (See: http://suemyadvisor.com/blog/press-r...g-thalmann-131). However, it might be hard to prove. I mean, I did hear Marc Bell go on CNBC and claim they were somehow bigger than Facebook, but according to some metrics he might be bigger than them. Shit, GroupON was inventing fake metrics to market their stock. At the same time, I never heard any crazy comments where they totally misrepresented their stock, in fact there was pretty good coverage from the get go.

But you are all missing my point, and the point is this: Gloating about how their share price is moving downward is a sign that they are going out of business tomorrow, and then basking in that glory because you are certain this is true, is highly inaccurate on your part. Their stock price is totally disconnected, most definitely in the short term, fom their operations. That stock price could go to $.50, and I don't think much would change operationally. These things are more complex than you make them out to be, its not 1 + 1 = 2.

With respect to their debt, I am pretty sure if you take out the one-time charges, AFF still makes plenty of money. They can make even more money cutting their expenses and pulling other defensive, non-growth moves. Marc Bell isn't an idiot, no matter how much you want to hate on him - that is my secondary point. Btw, I am not a judge, I don't give a shit what Marc Bell does. I'm not a fanboy, nor a hater, but one thing he is not, is an idiot.

If you had to ask me, and I am no wizard, the stock is going down for a variety of reasons. One being who the fuck would want to be a shareholder in this from a business perspective, the story isn't that great as you guys know with their debt. The second is, Mary, Jane, Jack, John, and Harry don't want to own a porno stock. Once again, it means little to their operations, except little or no access to future cash from the public market.

Let me draw a chart for you:

Business <-- (controlled by) --> Insiders (Marc Bell) --> (then) Debt Holders --> then Shareholders (last in line).

You can have a fairly healthy business controlled by insiders, with a shitty value proposition for shareholders, especially when it's an adult stock with a not so great story. Once again, citing stock price moving downward and basking in the glory as if they are doomed for bankruptcy, may not be the most accurate depiction of the situation.

I think we agree - reduce the interest and S&G and the stock will gain.

Good post Biggy2

actually, this was part of the problem of their original offerings. their costs to get new customers was more than $120 if i remember correctly, and the income on a clients lifetime with them was around $100. so just on operations they were negative before paying for their debt, at least based on what i remember in one of their filings.

if you only gain about $100 a member but you are running $200 per signup marketing programs, you are likely to have a deficit.

If only it were that simple. I am sure on some of their joins it may be like that, but I doubt every single join they get costs them $100 per member, after all they are an insane brand with an insane member base - surely some people just remember who they are and signup to buy with an acquisition cost of $0. Also, in their last quarterly they actively discussed dropping media buys that were non-performing...

You all underestimate Marc Bell. The truth is, there's a reason he has millions and you are on GFY applying the assumption of one rudimentary statement or application you read to his whole business model as if this is 100% truth in reality.

I was doing some research for fun last night. As recently as Sept 14, Marc has actually been a buyer in his own stock of FFN at $2.75. Granted it was only 10,000 shares. What I found really interesting is him and soem of the other FFN guys are involved heavily in a REIT called ARR (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=arr). This thing pays off a monthly dividend that yields 19-20% !!! Considering the gov't has just stated interest rates will remain low for quite some time, I'd say that might be a pretty interesting and quality buy to a shareholder, although I do need to look at it some more.

Why would you put your money into a company that does this to it's customers?
http://www.ripoffreport.com/Search/a...nd-finder.aspx :disgust

why is Will76 so butthurt?

let's take a look wills ifriends http://www.ripoffreport.com/Search/ifriends.aspx ... it has 415 reports files vs 93 for aff.... those fuckers at ifriends still own me five figure check from back in a day when they terminated a ton of affiliates for no reason...

If you read their last two quarterly reports you would see that their pure operating costs (not lawsuits or one time costs) they are still going negative (revenue-expenses). You can't say "with out their debt" with out their debt, penthouse would have already gone bankrupt. The debt is what got them the revenue (AFF & Cams). And while they paid off a little of the debt, it would take them several years, if ever to pay it all down at this pace... Most of it comes due this year anyway. They also have more pending legal problems that they can not afford and future very large payments to make for a settlement they just made. Bankruptcy is the only thing in their future.

Marc Bell might not be an idiot, as much as I think he is and don't like the guy. But he did a terrible job with running ibill (at least for us customers). They ran ibill into the ground and you right the "insiders" do make off like bandits because I bet anything that Marc Bell and company still made out well from ibill where as the rest of us got fucked. I wouldn't be surprised to see more of the same from them from FFN. You right about one thing those sharks have a skill I do not have that allows them to run and pillage corporations, do back door deals, have money *magically* disappear. If it's an art at screwing people to line their own pockets then he is a Picasso... but I still think he is an idiot ;)

Why it's not allowed to dislike a company around here. How odd. I didn't realize it was all love and peace and harmony and I was just the odd ball hater against Penthouse and AFF and their standup history.

Please inform ifriends that they are mine. I am not receiving my profit sharing checks :(

disliking company is all fine, but you're a little obsessed with it... seems like everyday you wake up, before doing anything you go post about aff :helpme

I've only started a couple threads about them in the last month, hardly every day. So I do have room to improve and step up my game i guess :1orglaugh :winkwink:

thanks for your concern on my mental health though. I'll invite you to the FFN bankruptcy party at my place when they close down and buy you a drink. :thumbsup

biggy, i looked at the original ipos, and they all showed horrible negative cash flow, with the selling costs to get new customers out of line with their lifetime membership income. apparently the only way things balanced was by selling the traffic on to others or to upsell within the sites, but that was not clear from the ipo so i cannot speculate.

what marc bell is doing is likely trying to look for a pop in the stock. remember, he has lost 75% of the value of his stock holdings in ffn so far. but if he can buy more at a low enough price and get a pop, even $1 more, he can cut his losses significantly and perhaps even come out where he was when this started. its a good move, but it depends on the stock staying alive and not making it to zero before someone else comes along to buy them out.

when you consider how quickly the stock lost 75% of its value, investing in it now is either a stroke of genius or the fastest way to the poor house. we will see. chat with you again when it hits $1, okay?

$2.13 right now, opened under $2 this morning.... still dropping like a rock.

FFN hit a new closing low at a whopping 68 cents, down 25 cents for the week.

typical week for ffn.

Marc Bell is an artist alright - a bullshit artist! :321GFY

:1orglaugh :1orglaugh :1orglaugh

Actually, it was a worse week than usual for FFN, as their stock is nosediving into the ground:

http://charting.nasdaq.com/ext/chart...WD=539-HT=395-

Fuck FFN for supporting and underwriting thieving piracy sites for so many years through their advertising. :thefinger

http://cdn.buzznet.com/assets/users1...5282353424.jpg

Personally, I would like to see Marc Bell, et al behind bars, but bankruptcy is a good start - although a weasel like Marc Bell will likely find a way to personally profit off of a Penthouse/AFF/FFN bankruptcy, since that is the kind of greedy sleazeball he is and has always been. :2 cents:

ADG

68 cents heh.

That would have been a really nice short at IPO.

ummm, isn't that rising?

Yo Sleazy, that was 2-1/2 months ago (Sep 22nd) dude - FFN stock closed down at $0.68 cents today (it's lowest since going public):

http://www.thestreet.idmanagedsoluti...&SYMBOL_US=FFN

Remind me to not get dating or stock tips from you (never mind, I'll remember). :upsidedow

ADG