Their valuation is 100x earnings, which is fucking nuts. They've already got half the people on the planet, and there's a short supply of planets. Their ad targeting is pretty lame in ROI terms. Where's the tens of billions in revenue growth gonna come from?

80% of Google's revenue comes from search even though they own ad networks that operate all over the web and mobile. If you look at Facebook's filing, their revenue per user is mediocre and their growth has come from adding more users. They're nearing market saturation and growth is slowing. There's no indication that Facebook has been able to monetize its users especially well. 12% of their revenue comes from Zynga, a company that makes money by selling virtual farm animals. They're making money from their scale and there's not much more room left to grow.

Short FB

Gonna have to disagree with you on this on DJ, lots of room to branch out and it won't be 100x earnings by this time next year.

Data mining will be huge. China and India are gigantic untapped new markets.
Facebook currency could replace wire transfers, PayPal and all the rest eventually.

The IPO will overvalue the company as most IPOs do
I'll buy in after it falls, and sit tight as a long term investor.

http://i.imgur.com/9VfXC.jpg

http://gawker.com/5881513/david-choe...ic-art-in-2005

The thing is that all signs point to it not falling.

Even conservative investors note that in regards to its valuation that Facebook meets the specifications for its beefed up price point (http://abovethecrowd.com/2012/02/01/...-revenue-club/)

You have to know that most people uses their real name in FB compared to Myspace. People are spending crazy amount of time on FB compared to watching TV. All the advertising dollars will shift to FB for sure.

And yes...the FB currency will be a new revenue for them. FB is kinda like the Internet now....I believe in future...most of the purchase of things will be via FB with their currency.

Also those college kids will get jobs soon. That would be extra revenue again when they have the purchasing power.

FB has definitely became the bench mark for your online presence. Is kinda like your email or home address.

It would take other sites lots of money and time to overtake FB. For those of you who says FB is a waste of time, like seeing your friend's posting nonsense and pictures, is no different from watching stupid TV programs in my opinion.

Like it or not, FB has reach most of the online communities and they made $1 billion in revenue via advertising last year. Is just the beginning!

You didn't answer the part about companies that are already doing this, they have a huge leg up on facebook already, not to mention a more refined market of shoppers who actually want to buy, and aren't exactly booming either.

I've heard the phrase 'growth in china' many times with many different companies and systems but they all seem to run into the same walls, especially with regards to internet. They seem to want to keep their internet private and sales internal. Zuckerberg doesn't have enough charm to work an open, free, speak your mind type of site in china for the next 20 years i'm willing to bet.

Reminder: The $5 Billion Facebook IPO Won’t Make You Rich
http://gizmodo.com/5881223/reminder-...-make-you-rich

People have been flocking to Facebook for what, six or seven years now?

People flocked to MySpace for how long? Two and a half years max?

Facebook is the #1 website in the world, not just in it's market. Has been that way for quite awhile now. Comparing it to MySpace is comparing apples to oranges.

China would never allow that, hence Facebook (and many other's) being banned in China.

They are looking towards China though and hope to develop a platform that will appease the Chinese government.

Here, to satisfy all those people that say they're going into China...."Not on the immediate horizon."

Charlie Rose Feb. 1, 2012

That was an interview in November. This is February and the resulting stock jump for Chinese social networking site Ren Ren on the NYSE after Facebook's IPO registration belies the potential for interconnectivity. One has to pay attention to such things when they happen.

There is a saying that one should at times make attempts to diminish their plans so as to not give one's enemies (Google) a chance to undercut them.

Zuckerberg wants in on China and will do whatever it takes. It is something that may appear to be dismissed openly, but capturing that flag first is what Facebook absolutely MUST do soon, even if he has to partner up as I said earlier. Fortune columnist David Kirkpatrick (author of "The Facebook Effect") along with several other analysts have a similar view.

See above. He doesn't need to. A strategic alliance with one or more major chinese social networks that incorporates FB's API's and plugins is enough to grab a foothold in China before Google does.

The other companies that are offering financial services don't have the demographic leverage and social networking matrices that Facebook has established.

Major companies already have leveraged Facebook successfully to reach millions of customers in mere days (Transformers: Dark of the Moon, for example, reached somewhere above 150 million people through Facebook in a single weekend).

So imagine a product that persons can click "Like" and/or "Buy" instantly and then "Recommend" to friends/family directly or indirectly through the sale being posted to their FB news feed.

The opportunity to leverage advertising compensation to businesses in exchange for using Facebook financial services would be a win-win situation. Purchase incentives for FB users who buy through FB instead of the regular monetary platform on a merchant's site would multiply the effect.

Making the Facebook ID transaction a seamless yet secure process would be relatively easy as many sites already have FB integration. Again, imagine buying something which notes before completing your purchase that 25 of your FB friends also have purchased and "liked"/"recommended" it.

The above examples only show a small snapshot of the process and it can be expanded along so many other lines, but the technological platform that Facebook has is a winner. All that is needed is execution and the clear expression of what is possible.

Once a person begins to take a look at the developer side of Facebook, then their outlook begins to change completely. If one only looks at the surface-level, user side of the equation, Facebook indeed looks like just another website. My suggestion for anyone who is a bit curious is to dig a bit deeper.

I don't think anyone here realizes how hard it is to even get stock..

word has it the stock will plummet even more as August 16th approaches