The future's always virtual.

It'll be real enough when it happens.

oh, it already has and its all good it should be it has to be.

i know the real too, a working girl working a seventy two hour week.

You aren't.

how do your sales now compare to what they were in the late 90's through the early 2000's?

porn will be as easy as searching for an images like "flowers" on images.google.com - naturally free and quick with no hassle. (this happens today)
paysites will die and the affiliate model with it.
porn will be basically free. the method might change: for example instead of tube sites there will be "archive porn sites" on which one can download porn by niche and site name in zipped torrents from what used to be paysites of past years, or just surf around any photo or video by that web site.
as of such big content producers will quit because it won't be worth it to pay talent the amounts that are not returned by selling that content selling.
if any new porn will be produced - it will be created by amateurs that want a little glory, a little buck, and to kill boredom. the "old" stuff will still be around in the free porn pool.

People have been doing this same bitching since forever just regarding different models, like TGPs, then MGPs, now Tubes, while everyone else is adapting and growing their income like you. These guys are bitching hoping that things will "go back to the glory days" and will soon be "pushed out" :2 cents:

People will continue to pay for things that simply can't be downloaded, such as a date or pill :2 cents:

Sure. But there is a problem.

(Numbers are representative estimates)

# of people willing to "pay for porn" in 2005: 50 million

# of people willing to "pay for porn" in 2013: 5 million
# of people willing to "pay for adult dating online" in 2013: 2 million
# of people willing to "pay for dick pills online" in 2013: 3 million

See what I'm getting at here (inevitable smart ass comments aside from people) ???

yeah because all the money in this industry comes from minors..

this is such an antiquated point of view it's embarrassing, I would expect a comment like this coming from a mom who can't even figure out her parental settings on her own computer rather than an industry insider. this exposes how much you actually understand this business as a whole more than it is an incite to its future..

good luck with your wishful thinking.

Source for that?

:2 cents::2 cents::2 cents:

fuckin ay... keep it up man.

It says right there "numbers are representative estimates". There is no source. We don't have that information. It's just to make a point.

Most of us here who have been around would agree that less people are willing to "pay for porn" now versus in 2003 or 2005.

Dating, cams, dick pills are great but they don't completely make up for the old paysite revenue overall. Some people are going to lose. Most people are going to lose. That's what happened and is happening. No surprise there!

let me try:
10 seconds after the cum hit the screen while on a tube - he isn't interested in a webcam session, joining a date site.... nothing porn related.

a pill ? yea right.... maybe a cigarette ... he got better things to do now that the monster is fed and he can go back to do something productive

How can you say there are less people when the internet has been doing nothing but growing every day since? Growing in all aspects, more available for your potential customers, more competition, more free options. No way are there less people paying for porn, the internet is just way fucking bigger.

This is all just anecdotal though. A couple years back I remember trying to break it all down using figures about the number of people going on the internet now versus 10-15 years ago and which countries they were from. It wasn't an academic style paper and just a stupid forum post while having a bitchfest with Fabian but basically after a certain ratio of people willing to buy versus not willing to buy increases it is indeed a net negative.

I don't recall the exact numbers without looking but to illustrate the concept let us say there are three times as many people online now versus 2003. Well if the average willingness to "pay for porn" per person online is now 10% of what it was in 2003 among people online then versus now you still have a NET LOSS. Adding three times as many online users doesn't make up for that.

Most numbers I see from people suggest that porn has diminished over the years in industry monetary volume despite the increase in surfers. But none of this is exact either. I'm open to being shown wrong if you have contrary figures.

Perhaps a affiliate big tobacco / Car parts catalog / cold beer exit traffic pop-up might just do the trick ! :1orglaugh

I wonder if any cigarette producers will use pornography as a way to advertise. Like, produce smoking fetish content, but displaying the brand name and whatever in the video.

I think you misunderstood his post :)

Arnox please check your email and icq i've sent you messages but you didn't answer. :(

Sent you another email. Trying to fix ICQ right now.

Let me know you got the work?

good thread
died too quickly

*coughs*

These days I just use pics and videos to generate the traffic, I don't expect any sales to the regular kind of paysites but rely more on cams, dating and physical products.
I would say the biz for regular paysites is pretty much dead. Ok, you can create some kind of unique content and probably generate a decent amount of sales but soon your videos will be all over the tubes and torrents and you will also have 50 similar paysites in your niche.

So if all the porn producers die off where does the porn come from then? With no one making money at producing porn then supposedly all the tubes and free sites would have nothing to share. I doubt everyone wants to watch shitty amateur porn. There has to always be some kind of demand for a quality product. Maybe it wont be with the current memberships model but I would think demand would drive some kind of profitable avenue for porn.

Might be, but YouTube hasn't killed off Hollywood. There will always be a demand for premium content.

I envision a higher demand for a bigger diversity of content producers with a streamlined delivery processes completely eliminating the subscription model.

Over the weekend I had a chance to exchange information with a couple of people involved with the film "In Real Life." Now according to some of their research most of the online porn is viewed by minors.

Forgetting for the moment that minors should not be getting acces to porn and just focus on the business side of things. Minors do NOT have money or credit cards. Therefore I will argue that the channels of distribution are flawed.

In any business it is vital to get your product closer to those that will actually pay for it. If the Internet is no longe able to do that then it is time to find a new method of delivery.



Yes it has.
If you talk to any of the studios you will discouver that Youtube is on the top 10 enemy list with sites like the pirate bay, etc.

The studios are hurting for money and it is the reason we are seeing all the super hero junk at the box office. They are not taking chances anymore because they are loosing money. Which means that unfortunately there will never be another film such as the Matrix, etc.

You should read up on what David Shaheen has to say on the subject.

http://www.dga.org/Craft/DGAQ/All-Ar...d-Shaheen.aspx

In my opinion the solution to many of problems rests in

1) Stop marketing to people that do NOT have money or are not willing to pay. And the best way to do this is scenario driven films with sexual content they will not want to watch. ( And that does not necessarily mean that anyone needs to film 80 year old women having sex with a twink while having her head defecated on by a donkey)

2) Finding a new way to distribute porn outside of the Internet. And that will not be easy. I think it is time to kill DVDs and come up with a new medium that exploits HD to the fullest and also can NOT be copied.

Funny this got bumped. I was doing some research on other forums to see what people thought of porn in regards to money. Starting in 2011 the general consensus in most IM forums other than GFY has been that porn membership sites were largely dead particularly for the little guy/affiliate. But you started to see people saying this increasingly in 2008 too. Now I noticed very few are focusing on adult dating or cams either and that seems to be declining as well for the little guy and for whatever reason. That's just what I see from trends people are posting on other IM forums besides GFY. You can see it by using search and typing in a few program names. Often you will see that many of these dating or cams programs peeked around 2006 in webmaster interest. Around laste 2009/early 2010 there was a rather large drop off. Similarly in early 2012 there was another moderate drop off.

Btw if you don't like what I say and can't act like an adult and refute me with facts or logic save us both the trouble and see my sig.


Youtube really isn't that bad though. Compared to the tubes in our industry (at least how things were a few years ago there may have been some improvement recently) they are angels. They have a fingerprinting system which catches about 40% of content from major studios. The studio is then allowed to block the content or allow the content to stay up but they can monetize it by running commercials and banners. The money then goes to the studio. Some use it to show previews of their new movies.

For the things which miss the fingerprinting Youtube gives the uploader three strikes. After the second strike the ability to upload is removed for some time. After three strikes the account is terminated and all videos are removed. The weakness here is that pros will simply open another account. However Youtube does honestly seem to try to prevent people from opening another account and you do see people complain about getting chain banned where all their accounts are removed. They can't touch the people buying hundreds of phone verified accounts but they do try and I would say at least Youtube makes an honest effort.

They have continually made more money year on year since 1995.

http://www.the-numbers.com/images/grey.gif

Source: http://www.the-numbers.com/market/

Try again.

I'm not a huge affiliate by any means but I recently had a record month.

Maybe I am growing but to the pace of the yesteryears.

Well I am happy that there is a site like "the numbers" to put things in perspective.

So if the studios are making so much money then perhaps we need to duplicate what they do.

• 1) Get an industry team of sue hungry lawyers that flood tube sites with legal fillings and lobby the gouvernement to pass laws against piracy..

• 2) Stop producing gonzo and all pathetic semi-gonzo then go make cgi based super hero films

• 3) Go back to the pussycat theatres (we closed our theatres but Hollywood never will)

• 4) Sell spin off merchandise. (action figures, official dildos, used panties in happy meals, etc)

• 5) Adopt a Hollywood style star making machine. (No more of this 20 year old woman sodomized today disappears tomorrow approach)

Back to where it started ... just a couple of guys making ALL the money.

This isn't that big of a problem for Hollywood as it is for adult because most people still want to go see the movie on the big screen. I think it will always be that way or at least for the next 1-2 decades. Adult on the other hand is made for distributing free content and the situation will continue to get worse.

why would they want to pay for webcams or dating after they cummed watching free porn ?
their sex drive is zero after they cum - in this stage they don't want anything to do with girls

I am someone that has actually had my films shown on a silver screen back in the 1970s. I have and always will condem this industry for always trying to find an easier way to make money and consequently shooting itself in the foot. We should never have allowed our cinemas to close

The industry will continue and even the tube sites will die off.

For the tube sites it is the old wisdom of "you can only scam so many people for so long before it comes back to bite you in the ass." Therefore the fake traffic, declining click to sales ratios for advertisers, lack of documentation on performer age, the inablity to keep porn out of the hands of minors, et cetera is nothing more than a chain smoker in a gun dynamite factory. Sooner or later it will all end.

But right now one tube company is rumoured to have some pretty big contacts keeping them in the game. However from what I hear they're in bed with people that even the mafia would not have considered back in the 1970.

Many people prefer interaction (even to jerk off) :)
This why cam sites and dating are still huge.

When youtube has full length movies that aren't split 10 times and hidden by name. Let me know. Until then, they are no comparison to a porn tube.

Wow. This thread is still going? I made it months ago!

it's the subject of the thread.
people keep searching for thread with this title and when they see this actually is on subject - they read and sometimes comment.

Just a few random thoughts outside the box,

10 years:
- all existing paysites will be gone or sold
- all existing porn producers will be gone or sold
- all porn will be produced in third world countries where it is cheapest
- all tube sites will be owned by manwin
- all content will be owned by vivid
- all proccessing will be done by ccbill
- some newbie will invent the definitive 'itunes of porn' site and it will dominate
- porn will be banned on the entire internet causing a second one to be created called pornnet
- the entire pornet will be subscription access based and will have every porn site that exists
- vivid, manwin, ccbill merge
- manwin will buy pornet
- the end :)