Maybe, but most importantly: they will make new porn surfers. And porn cycle will go on. :)

I think the next thing will be that small webmasters and sites will just dissapear. It will not be a change in technology but rather a change in business model.

(Free) Cam sites do not naturally draw away the mass traffic from the tubes. The Cam sites pay the tubes advertisements to (artificially) push traffic from tubes to Cams. The Cam sites can convert a few tube surfers into cash cows, and I mean $5,000 per month per user it often happens. In other words, Cam sites (along with gambling, scams, pills etc.) are who currently pays the hosting bills of the tubes, making the tubes possible in first place.
Note we talk of adult tubes: when it comes to youtube, there any mainstream corporation can bid the advertising space; to show on adult tubes, you dilute and damage a brand, rather than improve it, except if this is a cam site, pills brand, gambling or any scam.

About Oculus Rift's, I still think it will be limited to few young hardcore gamers, and perhaps very few professionals like architects into previewing homes to customers, or doctors into telemedicine, no reason everyone should get an Oculus at home.
PERHAPS, if Apple will launch some VR stuff, only in this case, it may become mass market, just because it is Apple. Not for any other reason :)

This is happening since long time. In the past our affiliates was mostly independent tgp's, blogs and member sites with own traffic, just putting links and banners there.
Lately (at least in cams), we see mostly people who owns no site and no traffic, but just finds ways to work in order to "spam" the few big sites, either submitting watermarked videos to big tubes, posting links in chatrooms by hand or via bots, or ultimately buying traffic from brokers but I see less and less people making this with profit, most of the media buys seems to me done directly between the big guys, tube to tube and program to tube.

1. Websites will be taken over by phone apps (and tv apps).

2. Probably some netflix of porn type thing.

Stop making sense divvy. Streaming porn tube that could be played on various devices would be nice.

The only problem is neflix is like $8 and streaming porn would be $30.

HD tubes, less ads, higher quality video, served in more of a channel format... integration with streaming and mobile devices a la Netflix.

Haven't they already? :error

Only solution is to become a big webmaster.

So still tubes, but in an evolved format, right? Tube 2.0 then?

dvtimes is right. the next wave will be some killer porn phone apps.

That's gotta be the first time I've ever seen someone post that...

Right. It's all about finding the perfect videos.

So by giving away the highest quality, what do you see them selling? 'Cause selling ads for dating sites ain't gonna fly much longer. The dating sites' days as we know them are numbered. It's only a matter of time before they get cleaned up and fined en-masse. At which point they'll likely no longer afford to pay the kind of commissions they're paying out these days

i know. but even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Tumbler for video. Sort of make your own tube wight the content you like.

"Free Pay Sites" offering in-app purchases :D

Might not be a bad idea actually. :)

Some free dating sites apply this principle already.

Probably 3D Movies & Oculus Rift

Oculus Rift for porn would be awesome! :thumbsup

As technology advances the way we consume media changes, most young people today use their smartphone for viewing media. This would not have happened 10 years ago because the technology didn't exist.

I see the VR experience as being immersive and fully interactive, I don't believe we'll consume media the same way we do today. I think pre recorded media will take a backseat as consumers embrace a new technology that allows them to get lost in a virtual world.

Time will tell... one thing is for sure, it's been a long time since adult has been at the forefront of innovation and new ideas

Completely free 'paysites' are coming. All of the content and UI you are used to seeing for 29.99 now offered for 0.00 without any tricks, scams or restrictions. Not pirated. Not old junk. Real full length HD videos absolutely free.

That's nice, but how do you make money? Upsells for cams/dating won't cut it if you want to present high quality (exlusive/semi-exlusive) content.

Upsell toilet paper. Everybody shits. :pimp

Can't comment on monetization, just what I see happening. The tube experience is way too clumsy right now. Beeg is probably the best free porn site I know of right now, and from experience the traffic clicks more than most tubes.

I predicted the tube traffic bubble would burst a year ago, and instead the going ad rates have only gone up, and people are still making money on spots that I can't.

Two things here:

1. YES we CAN go back to a semblance of how things used to be BUT it will take a lot of short-term pain to do so. The model we have is the New York Times. They opened their website for free then saw their sales plummet and realized that if they didn't do something QUICK they would be out of business in three years. The New York Times!

So they bit the bullet and started - gasp! - CHARGING for their website/news again. What happened? The traffic to their website (where all the free news was) dropped like a stone and it took 18 months to get it back. But when it came back the NY Times was solvent again, even profitable. Could the same happen with Adult and tubes et al? Possibly.

2. I do know the future of the free site model but why would I give it away for free here?

That's one property controlled by one company, where tubes are controlled by many around the world.. Yes in this example New York Times went back to a paid model, however not many followed as far as I know :)

Well the Times proved people would still pay for news, so many news organizations began charging a fee. How many are 'profitable'? I do not know.

PA's for tube submitters? Sponsors having to pay a monthly fee for tube their tube submissions. I could see that happening.

I think that is what they plan to do at cloud.xxx

That's what many TGP's used to do.

It's already happening...

I'm surprised it took so long for this to happen, never made sense to allow people to upload content for free when the tubes are paying for the bandwidth.

Although if I was a company the size of Mindgeek I'd just stop user uploads completely, create a micro payment system with integrated one click purchases and create a setup like clips4sale or Kinkbomb and then they could completely dictate terms to content producers.

"Don't like it? Tuff shit!"

I know content producers are trying to create an alliance so they have greater negotiating powers with the tubes, personally I think it's a ludicrous notion. The tubes have all the power, traffic is king. Producers may talk a good game about how content is Queen but we live in an age of increasing competition and lowering start up costs.

As the production of digital content increases the value of that content will continue to decline.

That's true, but the standard free market rules doesn't apply in this industry as much as in others, because the content isn't as comparable as regular goods. Where in real world company A and B sells furniture, then usually that one gets the most customers (survives) which sells it cheaper (if the quality is around the same). But with porn people are sometimes looking for a pornstar they like (they fall in love with) and not every site has content with that particular model..