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Fitty Picks :thumbsup
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the FBI investigation on hillary went public 11 days before the elections. donīt you think this had a massive impact? the polls on november 8. have been on 42,8 for trump and 45,9 for hillary. this is more or less the CORRECT public result because trump did not win the public votes. so what is wrong ? nothing !!!! just am FBI investigation against one candidate with an open result on the election day. for this kind of circumstance the polls have been pretty accurate on 8. the final result was Clinton received 65,844,610 votes, or 48.2% of the total vote. Trump received 62,979,636 votes, or 46.1% the difference is 1% and i think this is a quite perfect forecast under such circumstances. am i right or not ? |
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2. Rasmussen Reports 11/2 - 11/6 1500 LV 2.5 45 43 4 2 Clinton +2 3. Bloomberg (2-Way Tie) 11/4 - 11/6 799 LV 3.5 44 41 4 2 Clinton +3 3. Reuters/Ipsos (2-Way Tie) 11/2 - 11/6 2196 LV 2.3 42 39 6 3 Clinton +3 4. Economist/YouGov (6-Way Tie) 11/4 - 11/7 3677 LV -- 45 41 5 2 Clinton +4 4. ABC/WaPo (6-Way Tie) 11/3 - 11/6 2220 LV 2.5 47 43 4 1 Clinton +4 4. Fox News (6-Way Tie) 11/3 - 11/6 1295 LV 2.5 48 44 3 2 Clinton +4 4. Gravis (6-Way Tie) 11/3 - 11/6 16639 RV 1 47 43 3 2 Clinton +4 4. NBC News/WSJ (6-Way Tie) 11/3 - 11/5 1282 LV 2.7 44 40 6 2 Clinton +4 4. CBS News (6-Way Tie) 11/2 - 11/6 1426 LV 3 45 41 5 2 Clinton +4 5. Monmouth 11/3 - 11/6 748 LV 3.6 50 44 4 1 Clinton +6 |
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calculate the average and compare it to the public votes and voila ! you can never trust ONE source because most of them are working with a number between 300 and 1000 people. but if you take an average you get nearer to the reality and thatīs actually what 538 is doing. if america were now also a real democracy and not a sham democracy in which one can leverage the will of the majority with gerrymandering, then you would be exactly the same result as me and the majority of the polls. |
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What other powerful nation is this transparent? Who of the top 10 receives your admiration? |
Stats from 538 good polls in statement 5.
They were wrong, but much less wrong than many in 2016, are they wrong now? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...for-the-house/ |
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I see a lot of things in play for the mid-terms. But, as I see it, one of the largest factors that led to Trump winning was the fact of how many Democrats stayed home for the last presidential election.
Something I don't think we will see in the mid term election. While I never liked the Clinton's, I did not stay home. It does go to show a long term approach to demonizing opponents is a fair strategy. I have seen it on both sides but the right seems to be better at it. It's to bad nobody sees it for what it is. The Democrats will have a healthy majority in the House and the Senate may be SPLIT. But when you have control of spending...."You have control of anything that gets done" But not having control of the Senate means anything can be blocked. So this leaves us with a very interesting situation.... One which will unlikely produce any legislation since Trump will likely not vote for stuff even his own party generates and a lot of 'vote grandstanding' (think repeal Obamacare 57 times) that makes headlines for their respective bases, but NO ACTIONS WHATSOEVER ! So we will be in a stalemate for the next 2 years. And no bad legislation will be reversed. But I want you all to think about the 'REAL ID' play that will take effect before the next Presidential election. The real vote limiter that does not seem to be on anyone's radar right now. Sure you can get your drivers license / state ID easy enough if you can get a copy of your Birth Certificate required to get it as easy.... Potential there for many states to limit the next vote. Don't wait... get it now ! My drivers license does not expire until more than 30 days after the election in 2020 but if I don't have the 'REALID' version, I can't vote. |
^^^Interesting for 2020.
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Well, in the midterms it won't matter because reps are elected by popular vote. |
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And there are those that would point to the recent 'Brexit Vote' as a reason to maintain the status-quo. But to do what the brit's did, we would need a constitutional amendment generated by the states (takes many years). So don't let anyone fool you with that issue. There is a big difference between election of officials and mandates by the people. Every election, the politicians say they have a mandate for what they want to do when in most cases it was a rejection of the opponent and not many gave much consideration to what that person was really going to do or the implications of it. With the exception of about 4 years, this country has been under minority rule since 2000. Your not going to get those in power to vote for a change that would insure they loose power. It will take a constitutional amendment. Again, back to control of the states where election law is made. I see gery-mandering a bit easier there. So if you can manage to get a FULL CHANGE in government, don't be satisfied with just that, remember the things that led to this and demand a change to it. Or, it will happen again. |
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the real problem on this constitution is that it is something like the bible - hundreds of years old, written in another world, and for every pro you can find a contra. last not least it will be a court that have to decide what is written there and what was meant and that again leads to the next big problem of this system because also the judges are nominated because of their political point and view and not because they are neutral. so it will always be the money that controls the united states and never the people (even when a lot of them believe it). all one can vote for is a rough trend - a decision between cancer and HIV. the one and only country in the world that I personally know what can call itself democracy is switzerland. and if you see the life standard there they can not do that wrong. also when you talk with people there about politics it is really interesting to listen. some of them are voting for their favorite party but in the same moment they tell you "but i donīt agree with this and that from this party, but never mind we well not let this pass trough". the complete political landscape there has nothing to do with ideology it is just based on single arguments what are differing from case to case. but that this works is also an effect from a super education. even the dumbest there have an astonishing knowledge about economic questions and I think without that it would not happen that citizens from a country vote against lower taxes, against more holidays and against higher minimum wages (and much much more). a democracy starts with itīs people. if you let them dumb and uneducated you will get trumps (just look at the average education level of all those countries that have one of them) and if you educate them you see prosperity and happier people. I wish the world could copy a bit from the successful countries where people live in freedom together instead trying to repeat mistakes from the past again and again. |
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It is the whole point. To divide those up in a way to maintain a majority. Each voting electoral collage vote 'is' a congressional district. So to divide up a strong area to splinter parts of it to others can make it a minority to the ruling party. There is no end to this and no easy fixes. It's all in how you draw the lines. Going to change again after 2020 and who will draw those new lines? The ruling party. |
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But the constitution is not FROZEN. It remains flexible. Where it is not flexible, they are changing the way we interpret the words to get what they want. There the issue is in plain sight. Don't blame the constitution, blame they way they use it in methods not intended. |
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we all should get familiar with the idea that ONLY machines can do that! sooner or later they will decide all for us anyway (because they are the only neutral deciders). and there will still be winners and losers even when the machine can find a ways what makes the majority happy and/or have a better logic to calculate long term consequences from a decision. |
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Yeah - I guess. Ancient Greece tried pure democracy, everyone voted individually on everything. Then they got beat and enslaved by stupider people with a republic.
What happens in chaos is that eventually a very ruthless strongman takes over. So the constitution has value because it has a tradition that keeps that at bay. There are 190+ countries, 200+ if you count territories, and to point endlessly to Switzerland, which is a small country of 8.5 million, and is not even as large as American cities, is ridiculous. Same Denmark, 5.2 million. Those tiny countries are the exception, not the rule. Rule of the demos, the people, is only possible practically in very small places, not in large populous countries. |
Republicans are traitors, every one is saying it. People, the best people are always telling me this.
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Can you fix that ? If not I'm not inclined to give them the power to decide every issue. But it is a novel thought. The founders understood. But it's up to you to watch, see and call-out your elected officials. But you can't do that without some assemblance of truth in the media. You won't get that if you don't demand it ! Respectfully, I'm sorry, but just fix the broken, hi-jacked rules If you don't, you will be in for some real shocks come 2020. |
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i was also wondering how that works in Switzerland all those years because the voter turnout is mostly very low. I wanted to know how swiss people think on that and the answer i got everywhere surprised me a lot. the swiss are aware that they cannot understand everything and every topic and have here such a kind of collective representation of interests. that means that the people only go to these popular decisions when they have dealt extensively with the topic. thus actually automatically decide those who concern it most and who have informed themselves most deeply. and look - it seems to work. not perfect - but more perfect than anything I know. |
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Don't forget to look at the education system and media rules. I am familiar with a few in the EU, but it requires the other looks I mentioned to understand it well enough to make judgements from it. But folks are a bit more 'pro-active' in deciding their fate in many, not all EU governments. It shows in this country, just what happens when you become complacent with democracy. Others will hi-jack it. |
Now 538 saying 38 democrat pickups
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If this midterm is bringing me out to vote, then I have a feeling it's going to be a big Democratic turnout. I've never felt more of a need to vote in my entire life.
I think there's a lot of people out there who think exactly the same thing and know this election the best shot at installing a congress who will do something about this president. |
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Things haven't been going how they've historically gone, but they have been going by the polls. The fact that a "progressive" is 4 points ahead in Florida is telling.
Look at the Lamb v Saccone: Final Results -- -- -- 49.8 49.6 Lamb +0.2 RCP Average 3/1 - 3/11 -- -- 47.0 45.0 Lamb +2.0 So even though it was an 18pt republican district, it went pretty much by by the polls. |
I think some are looking at this the wrong way.
Trump still has about 45 days to tweet something that provoke 1% of his base to stay home....LOL... Most of who will turn out in mid-terms in a coat-tail support is set and finite, so there is only downside for him to tweet and speak-out at higher levels. |
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this is a capitalistic democracy.... remember which word comes first. While I do not support it, communism was never a threat to democracy. It was a threat to capitalism. Notice we sparred no expense in squashing that idea down. Capitalism is great, yes, greed is good, but uncontrolled greed and uncontrolled capitalism is bad. Capitalism should never OWN democracy. You have to manage it as a tool and a end to a means. It can not set the rules for itself. It then becomes uncontrolled greed. In Russia, Capitalism owns democracy. How does that look ? Want some... It was the same reason they had the communist revolution. It was against capitalism not democracy since they did not have democracy then. It was a revolution against capitalism. Capitalism is not bad, uncontrolled capitalism is. This is the real war you are fighting and everyone is wearing masks ! Vote your aspirations. |
2 Weeks UPDATE: They say president Trump is rising in the polls but the blue wave in the House is holding - 538 says 36 seat pic up, RCP says 25.5 seat pick up, most of the others between 30 and 40.
Democrats need 23 seats to get the power of the gavel. We have predictions from losing 7 seats to gaining 60+ Any new insight? |
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Trump is promising tax breaks to the middle class.... Wern't they suppose to be getting those the last tax break ? Congress was unaware and on break. Paying for it has not entered the picture. It certainly moves folks. That is why he did it. I believe they know they have a issue in the house but want to at least keep the senate. And that they might do. I still think the house will flip, but it's a question of how far. The senate will probably remain a narrow majority. Trump still has 2 weeks to piss of more voters and change the turnout. I think the 2 party system needs 1 or 2 more party's to change the landscape and re-focus attention where it needs to be. The only issues we have been dealing with are the ones they fabricate mountain from molehill making them worse. |
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Now everyone is saying the early vote heralds something, but what? Does anyone have insight?
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3 days out and, for the House races,
RCP says dems pick up 26 538 says dems pick up 39 Predictit says the dems pick up 25+ Cook Report says the dems pick up 30-40 If the polls were off by 1.5 in dems favor, as they were in 2016, dems STILL win 23 seats and take the house. Still, Trump's approval is highest its been in years, what will happen? |
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12 hours and we know!
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He just trolls |
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So the tally so far:
Democrats 219(+26) Republicans 195(-26) With 20+ seats left to call, the democrats have taken the house. They have already promised to begin acting as a check on presidential power. The popular vote was 7-8% democrat, exactly as averages of polls predicted. What was different was money. Democrats had a huge money advantage. None of this is good for republicans as far as I can see. |
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Looks like I was a little high.
I underestimated how much Trump would go out and campaign and what effect it would have. |
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Well, they keep trickling in and now we are up to 32 seats gained. My guess of 39 suddenly doesn't look as bad.
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Any more predictions from you delusional geniuses? :1orglaugh |
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