More rosey news... people are pulling large amounts of money out of the stock market..

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/12/14/...ted-event.html

But trump did all this MAGA stuff?!? Now I am really confused...

It will affect you as well... but anyway the smart people have always known the MAGA was bullshit... all Trump did was made a crash inevitable and preped it to be much worse for average people. the dumbs are the only ones who believed the MAGA bullshit, but they all live in trailer parks..

You still don't have a clue why people voted for him in the first place. You and your NPC buddies.

Recession is under way whether Trump says it's the best economy or not.

Stay out of forex, stockmarkets and bitcoin, it's not for you.

Nothing to do with Trump per se.. Everything to do with the Worldwide revolt on globalism/politicians.. A good article on the matter at hand

Signs Of Coming Collapse: Citizens Worldwide Revolt Against Taxation & Illegal Aliens
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...illegal-aliens

For a long time the quote at the end was my sig even here I think

“Sarah, if the American people ever find out what we have done, they would chase us down the street and lynch us.” – President George H.W. Bush

Another related areticle

The Bond Market Has Frozen: For The First Month Since 2008, Not A Single Junk Bond Prices
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...nk-bond-prices

Economy ? Take moment...
Is that the top priority right now...
OR...
Stopping the Republicans from installing a Putin Style Democracy (hardly a democracy)

If if look at it, it seems that is exactly what we are getting... one trick at a time.
It's been a bit harder to see it in some of the states where it is playing out but not hard to see it at the federal level.

Those with money rule !

:1orglaugh :1orglaugh :thumbsup

Good read, trouble is underway. Never heard that quote though, is it recorded or only noted by a 3rd party?

Why does Trump always bash the people he hires? What a fucking dumbass.

Nixon all over again: Trump's Fed-bashing and interest-rate panic will cause a recession, not prevent one

President Donald Trump's tweet on Monday morning admonishing the Federal Reserve for even thinking about raising interest rates amplified his recent criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and just a day before the Fed begins its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting to decide whether to go ahead with another increase.

In a recent interview, Trump said of his own appointee to oversee the Fed, "I'm not even a little bit happy with my selection of Jay. … They're making a mistake. … My gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else's brain."

In October, Trump called the Federal Reserve the "greatest threat" to his presidency. His attacks on the Fed may be a greater threat to the country.

Should Powell simply cave into the political pressures from the White House, it could spell disaster for the U.S. economy. The last time this happened was when Richard Nixon was in office, and what followed was one of the worst economic recessions of the 20th century.

The Fed's mandate does not include propping up stock prices
Although the call for slowing the pace of interest-rate hikes is not limited to the president, his comments are based on the political calculus of how higher rates are impacting stock prices, the self-proclaimed measure of his administration's economic success, and not a deeper understanding of the economy or the goals of monetary policy. They do not help the economic policy discourse and may even be dangerous.

With the unemployment rate at 3.7 percent and GDP growing above a 3 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2018, most economists consider the U.S. economy to be in a situation of "full employment." Over the past two years, the recovery from the Great Recession has added another 3.8 million jobs on top of the 12 million created over the previous eight years. The Federal Reserve has remained on track toward policy normalization, raising the federal funds rate seven times since December 2016, and there are compelling reasons for why they should continue this policy.

"Although monetary policy should be data-dependent, their dependency should be based on rules rather than discretionary actions and presidential tweets."
First, the recent acceleration in economic growth and low interest rates has heightened inflation concerns. The current CPI has been increasing at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, the highest in seven years, with both the producer price index and wage growth rising more than expected over the past month. Furthermore, the large corporate tax cuts, a budget deficit expected to exceed $1 trillion and escalating trade wars with China and other trading partners are expected to add to these inflation pressures.

Second, we are approaching the tenth year of economic expansion, currently the second longest in U.S. history, and both the Federal Reserve and bipartisan CBO are forecasting slower domestic and global growth in 2019. The likelihood of a recession occurring within the next two years are rising, with economists at JP Morgan placing the chances as high as 60 percent. Interest rates will need to be in the "neutral" range at that time to give the FOMC enough ammunition to prevent a serious economic downturn. This calls for additional rate hikes over the next year as well as continued unwinding of the Fed's balance sheet, which grew to $4.5 trillion during the Great Recession. The reverse QE policy will abate concerns of the higher short-term rates leading to an inverted yield curve.

Third, keeping interest rates too low for too long exacerbates the type of excessive risk-taking by financial institutions that led to the financial crisis. The TED interest-rate spread, which is an indicator of credit market risk, has more than doubled in the past two months and is higher than its five-year average. Normalizing interest rates is one of the keys to a stable financial market.

The greatest threat to the economy
It is without a doubt that prudent monetary policy is the No. 1 reason for the sustained economic growth of the past three decades. An independent and non-political FOMC is essential for the Federal Reserve to achieve their objectives of price stability and maximum employment. The greatest threat to the economy today is not what the Federal Reserve is doing but how it responds to a president with little regard for eroding the public confidence in our government institutions.

Unfortunately, there are indications that Trump's barrage of attacks on the Fed is having an impact.

In a recent speech to the Economic Club of New York, Chair Powell said that the fed funds rate was "just below" its neutral level and called for a more data-dependent monetary policy, contradicting his previous statement only a month earlier that they were a "long way off" from rate normalization. This should be of concern given that nothing has fundamentally changed over the past month with the exception of elevated stock market volatility. Although monetary policy should be data-dependent, their dependency should be based on rules rather than discretionary actions and presidential tweets.

While the members of the FOMC have always been a mix of doves and hawks who represent a range of opinions, they always have been able to reach a consensus based on sound economic reasoning. There has been no dissenting votes on any of the Fed rate hikes under Powell. Furthermore, the median projection of the fed funds rate in 2019 by FOMC members has remained consistent at above 3 percent, suggesting at least three more hikes over the next year.

Backing off from the current course of policy normalization for a short-term bounce in equity markets would erode Powell's credibility, cloud Fed transparency and raise inflation expectations. It was widely expected that the FOMC will raise rates for the fourth time this year, a move Trump has called "foolish."

If the Fed does slow down the pace of rate hikes, they should clearly communicate how economic conditions have changed relative to their previous forecast to support their change in policy.

For a politician to try to control rates through the fed is a admission your policies have failed. Be it POTUS or Congress.

it is always all about money. but the trump supporters will never understand that THEY will never get any thing from what those people made what are called "the establishment".

one of trump´s promises was to go against them but he will never because he is on their payroll.

and he will not fix he will completely destroy the US economy because he have NO CLUE.

he is against higher interests because he likes to see the stocks market on a high level.
he does not think on the next crisis that HE have caused.

the one and only thing in such a financial crises a country can do is to lower interests and give companies the chance to make investments in new machines and infrastructure.
but when the interest rate IS ALREADY low at the beginning of such a crisis there is no help anymore.

and this next crisis is not only predictable when china´s economy slows down, it will be the biggest in the human history and it will take decades to fix it.

and when it is fixed US will be in debt with the whole world and this is also the opposite of a "great country".

It was apparently said to Sarah McLendon during a press corp interview.. She didn't publish it but others are on record that he did in fact say it.. They were discussing Iran-Contra

Given the Bush family history he meant it in more ways than one i'd bet.

Coming from someone who's probably made more money than most in doom porn for the last decade, let me weigh in. We'd be lucky if it was "just" a recession next year. Since the vast majority of you don't understand how the market mechanics work I'll fill you in. The 500+ or - swings are algorithms buying and selling, obviously. People actually don't do this all the much anymore unless you're a type of Ameritrade trader. It's actually very simple.

In a flash literally, the algo will sell a stock once it hits a certain rate, regardless. This will trip another company algo to do the same causing a domino effect and why the marked drops are getting bigger, daily. The market can't crash in a day like in 1929 because it's on a type of circuit breaker. It just simply turns off as all trading stops for that day.

This has happened a few times but the worst (October 13, 1989) was the real "Black Friday". So, there's never going to be a "big crash" as it will be an organized exit as the FED will come in and pump free (no/low) interest loans (life) to the markets. IMO, the only real capital gains in the markets these days are the fees being made off the billions on stocks/options being bought/sold as all SM gains have been lost for the year.

Finally, as someone who's been watching this for a decade from a totally different historical perspective, it's going to be far worse than a simple recession. In brief here's why. At the turn of the century, Petroleum changed everyone's lives to where it created more jobs and far more mobility. Also, more personal freedom via automobiles (1910) and far cheaper transit that enabled people to share opinions vastly creating, even more, business/jobs.

Meaning, just from 1920-29 the US economy doubled itself hitting a plateau. It took 20 years as a huge wealth disparity in part, actually created WWI. We are at a very similar stage right now due to how the internet, like petroleum, changed the world.

The internet is much different with all the social media platforms as younger people would rather get that instant crack-dopamine acceptance respect drop than to work hard and buy a house or whatever brought respect to the older generation. They don't care and I don't blame them because for them to be the next Mark Zuckerberg would be about as easy and you guessing the winning lotto numbers.

In short, society has hit a new plateau. There has to be a great change of some sort, and what scares me the most? We just can't start new world wars to cull the herd. It's going to be much much worse. That's a post for another day.

Agreed

There has to be a major culling soon for sustainability. There's no way around it

The Fed rate should be a fixed rate.. Less than 1%.. A group of private bankers shouldn't be determining how much money they get to make on trillions of dollars created out of thin air.

You are a fucking idiot

I wish the mobile version of GFY would keep me logged in so I wouldn't have to accidently see your stupid posts.

fuck off invader, americans use more resources and pollutes second only to americas production base in china....how american to propose a culling of the herd but it is america that is the biggest contributor to the problem...cull yourselves and do the earth a favor :thumbsup

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh


looking forward to your next stupid post :thumbsup

Fuck off you sexy uncut Serbian :321GFY

I agree with you. We should cull all people who voted Trump they are the weakest link in our population. 61,943,670 gone. Would be nice :thumbsup

"The Federal Reserve Banks are not a part of the federal government, but they exist because of an act of Congress. ... While the Board of Governors is an independent government agency, the Federal Reserve Banks are set up like private corporations. Member banks hold stock in the Federal Reserve Banks and earn dividends."

https://www.stlouisfed.org/in-plain-...-reserve-banks


Translation for the stupid: Private bankers deciding how much they earn on trillions made out of thin air...

You are still stupid .....

If it is so bad , then get rid of it ...

We have here the Bank of Canada :

The Bank of Canada is not politicaly influenced ....

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh


Your banking system was setup the exact same way. "Not politically influenced" Correct because the bankers run the show.

Liked your post and agree in many ways, also looking forward to a thread about culling...:2 cents:

There is no recession so stop whining and just do your job and get paid.

And it’s shitty that trump thinks Canadian borders are unsafe because Trudeau has done absolutely nothing but legalize weed and terrorists.

The sad reality is the fed is your last defense to control what the policy makers fail to do.
Keeping it from a run-away inflation that ultimately would destroy us all.
Do they over-react at times... yes, but they do that based on the facts on the ground and projections of the future from that.

The folks that have the most 'BITCHING' to do about it always comes when rates go up and those are the folks that have little CASH and plenty of DEBT. They believe in making money with other folks money and they really mean loose other folks money when the profits run dry and they fold the debt without personal liability.

If you were to change the rate to 1%, banks would borrow money from the Fed at 1% and lend it to the government for 2.5%... oh wait... thats what they were doing... and you were paying for it. It was a form to prop-up the banks after the collapse.

You want more ?
The banks were indebted to the government, now it is the other way around and you want to give the banks more money to manipulate commodities ? That makes things cost you more in the case you don't realize it. It costs jobs in the case you didn't realize it.

The Fed is doing a fine job predicting the future and I doubt you can do better. The larger issue is Congress is not doing it's job... they leave it to the fed to clean up the mess they create.

And you have yet to feel the impact of those tax cuts....LOL
Don't worry, the Fed will clean that mess up also. You will be paying for it.

actually they do NOT overreact as the inflation alone is not the only parameter they have to look at.

they look also from WHERE the money comes from that feeds the economy.

this "boom" you can see i pretty much 100% from consumer credits because the export/import balance is worse than ever and the additional GDP is 1 to 1 the same number as the personal loans.

so if the FED is not increasing the interest rate this will explode and end up in unpaid loans at the end (similar to the 2008 crisis where this loans have been given to people that could not pay them back).

if such a bubble explodes a country runs into a deflation what is also well known as a site effect of a recession.

trumps economy magic was only to LEND the people money that they can spend more.
a healthy economy is based on spending OWN money OR to make MORE money out of the investment that was financed by loans.

private investments and consumption (in compare to business investments) are usually not profitable. with other words: a consumer spends today what he have to work for tomorrow - what is fine - but if he spend all what he makes in this life there is no next life to pay it back and this is why that have to be limited.

I'm sorry thommy, but you seem to have the work of the treasury dept confused with the fed. They often work together but base their decisions on different things.

The price of manipulation....
Nat Gas has been so plentiful they can't find ways to export it fast enough.
So someone explain this price spike... (futures market)
Still believe in the supply/demand fairy tale !
https://dailyforex-a.akamaihd.net/fi...ris-natgas.png

but of course that can be explained by supply and demand.
i'm not really up to date on oil and gas prices now, but i can tell you what caused the jump (which is not so unusual if you look back until 2014 or 2003).

New weather forecast models pointed to temperatures in mid-November, which are more typical for mid-December, with cold spells in the Midwest, over Texas and the south, and all over New England.

Natural gas prices usually rise before winter, as colder weather increases the need for heating.

In the heating period from November to March, the greatest demand for US gas prevails, as consumption then skyrockets abruptly.

Meanwhile, market participants were looking at the data published in the 46th week.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the total amount of stored natural gas was 3,208 trillion cubic feet (tcf), the lowest level at this time of year for about 15 years.

The last time that stocks were so low in the first week of November dates back to 2003.

Fed raising interest rate again today. Looks like they are pushing for a recession.

You are a very ignorant alt-right hate fake nic troll

All stock market gains this year have been lost, we're in negative territory now, because of Trumps tarrifs raising inflation and causing uncertainty in all markets.

The fed controls inflation with interest rate hikes. Get a clue hate troll.

[QUOTE=Bladewire;22384220]You are a very ignorant alt-right hate fake nic troll

All stock market gains this year have been lost, we're in negative territory now, because of Trumps tarrifs raising inflation and causing uncertainty in all markets.

The fed controls inflation with interest rate hikes. Get a clue hate troll.[/QUO

So tell me about this inflation you speak of?

Worse, they plan to hike all the way through '19. No relief until '20. Housing market was already on the decline due to them raising rates so fast.. It's literally in a state of shock right now and needed a pause.. Sellers will be running for the door shortly and buyers will be choosier due to rates.. 2-3 months when rate locks run out we will be hearing much more about home prices in rapid decline.

Not good news for people like Rochard who are still sitting on houses upside down from the last crash.

Moron

I would appreciate if you could in detail explain how this culling of 61 million American citizens would be organized? That's 61 million people with a different worldview than yourself.

I'm eagerly awaiting a mature response from you...:2 cents:

The fed has no real concern for consumer inflation.
It worries about wage inflation.
That's caused when unemployment hits rock bottom and employers have to raise the wages to attract the needed help from someone else. (competing for workers)

They are on kinda shaky ground because their are so many that are not counted as unemployed. Others that are working multiple part time jobs and plenty of others who are working part time and want full time employment.(underemployed)

Then you have this management overtime without paying overtime issue. That is yet a story for some other thread.

The skinny is they do not really know what the employment 'reserves' are. (uncounted folks that will work but not sign up looking)

But know that rates will only go up when the fed thinks wages are going to rise to fast.
It has nothing at all to do with the price of bread, gas or homes.
However, if you can't control wage growth, it will show up in consumer inflation.
Nobody pays more without passing the cost downstream.

None of it works if consumers aren't spending (or borrowing)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Du0HU2lXcAApVgP.jpg:large


Why Leveraged Loans Are A Better Signal Than High-Yield Bonds
Oct 23, 2018, 06:57am
"So, from a fundamental standpoint, from a technical standpoint and from pure lack of readiness for any weakness, I'd look to the leveraged loan market as the better warning sign for larger problems (if we are going to get them)."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petertc.../#792d0147e862


The Fed just nailed the coffin shut.... If they wanted it open they would have paused their rate hikes.

Fake nics blaming anyone but Trump, as we predicted, it's part of the trolls mental defect, taking no responsibility just like Julian Assange.

You can kiss the Fed's ass all day long. It's not going to change the facts. The fact is, prepare yourself..

Lenders have been BEGGING for business in the past month or so.. What's next? They take higher risks.. Welcome to 2008 all over again, on steroids.

You are a defective troll

You excuse everything Trump does

You put blame on innocent people and entities to take the fall for Trumps failures

You are a despicable specimen of multiple mental deficites & defects.

You are a coward that wants to be anonymous online yet be taken seriously by the same people online you cower away from and want to hide from.