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Why 07-02-2003 06:52 PM

$1334726.6868868862005821541779953

is the value of the second option at the end of 18 years, if interest is compiled once yearly @ 8%

rastakit 07-02-2003 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Rick Latona


The question is now, what percentage do you use to determine the better deal?

That is indeed the crux to any DCF question...is $2 tomorrow worth more than $1 today? Who knows?

The 30 year long bond today closed at 4.57%...might be a good place to start...

Rick Latona 07-02-2003 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by WiredGuy


These numbers are correct and can be verified by this tool:
http://www.pheaa.org/Forms_and_FAQs/form/fm2.shtml

Assuming the base amount saved per period was 27k/33k respectively, with interest computed annually at 8%.

This only indicates the total dollar amount of the contracts though over 40 years and 18 years respectively.

Say that contract A was 18 years as well, using the same math we figure contract A would be worth $1,011,156. So at the end of 18 years contract B is only worth about $200,000 more.

So at the end of 18 years, Contract B is worth more at $1.2MM by 200k over Contract A. So if you feel you can take that $1.2 MM at the end of 18 years and turn it into an additional $5.7 million over 22 years then Contract B is worth more. Otherwise, contract A will make $6.9MM over the course of the 40 year tenure and to me, I would rather pick contract A.

WG

Out of all do respect for a fellow Bobblehead, you don't understand the question. I'd be getting paid these amounts in exchange for an assett today. What are the contract worth in real money today is the question. And I think we know now. If you use an interest rate more than 9% B is better, 8% or less makes A better.

Why 07-02-2003 07:00 PM

$33,000 * 1.08 = $35,640
($35,640 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $74,131.2
($74,131.2 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $115,701.696
($115,701.696 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $160,597.83168
($160,597.83168 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $209,085.6582144
($209,085.6582144 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $261,452.510871552
($261,452.510871552 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $318,008.71174127616
($318,008.71174127616 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $379,089.4086805782528
($379,089.4086805782528 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $445,056.561375024513024
($445,056.561375024513024 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $516,301.08628502647406592
($516,301.08628502647406592 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $593,245.1731878285919911936
($593,245.1731878285919911936 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $676,344.787042854879350489088
($676,344.787042854879350489088 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $766,092.37000628326969852821504
($766,092.37000628326969852821504 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $863,019.7596067859312744104722432
($863,019.7596067859312744104722432 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $967,701.34037532880577636331002266
($967,701.34037532880577636331002266 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $1,080,757.4476053551102384723748245
($1,080,757.4476053551102384723748245 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $1,202,858.0434137835190575501648104
($1,202,858.0434137835190575501648104 + $33,000) * 1.08 = $1,334,726.6868868862005821541779953
$1,334,726.6868868862005821541779953


lets stop creating math problems that no one that didnt pass triginometry understand, get the old trust calculators and do the math.... you can see my math above, thats the value of the second option which would have less value at the end of its term then the first option would at the end of its term in today's money.

BlueDesignStudios 07-02-2003 07:03 PM

Well we don't know what the correct interest rate is to use, 8% is just a guess, rastakit's method is appropriate though perhaps not for this project.

So check out the effect of interest rate's on NPV's:


Interst % NPV A NPV B Difference
1 $889,834.37 $543,401.68 $346,432.69
2 $743,001.82 $498,489.04 $244,512.77
3 $628,518.97 $458,544.81 $169,974.16
4 $538,356.76 $422,948.28 $115,408.48
5 $466,614.65 $391,161.82 $75,452.84
6 $408,932.06 $362,719.16 $46,212.91
7 $362,067.39 $337,215.53 $24,851.85
8 $323,595.88 $314,299.14 $9,296.74
9 $291,692.03 $293,663.85 -$1,971.82
10 $264,972.13 $275,042.99 -$10,070.86


So you can see that NPV A is always better than NPV B as long as the interest rate is below 8% - and even if it jumps up to 9%, no big difference, but if it's 10 or above, B is much better than A

Why 07-02-2003 07:06 PM

if you want to see the full math for the first option i can do it up and present it for you, but its definately worth a lot more.

option A is worth $1,080,000 with out interest. via($2,250x12)x40

add in 40 years worth of compiled interest. and obviously option A is worth more.

Kimmykim 07-02-2003 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Rick Latona


Blue you win the bet either way. But, everyone is I'm sure learning a lot here. I know I am. Which is a better offer? The question is now, what percentage do you use to determine the better deal? If you were selling something and had to choose between the two contracts, how can you tell?

The better offer is the one you are getting the biggest down payment on.

Geez.

Rick Latona 07-02-2003 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kimmykim


The better offer is the one you are getting the biggest down payment on.

Geez.

I knew I could count on your for advice. But, I though you would say the one who doesn't uncheck the sign me up for another 10 years box below the credit card field.

WiredGuy 07-02-2003 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Rick Latona
I knew I could count on your for advice. But, I though you would say the one who doesn't uncheck the sign me up for another 10 years box below the credit card field.
:1orglaugh

Kimmykim 07-02-2003 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Rick Latona


I knew I could count on your for advice. But, I though you would say the one who doesn't uncheck the sign me up for another 10 years box below the credit card field.

Dude, you know I am not much of a believer in the longevity of anything but dirt.

Thus my answer.

SweetT 07-02-2003 07:52 PM

While I am not a math whiz, I am pretty good at finding an angle to make a buck or two and I would be asking other questions....


1.) Does the asset appreciate or depreciate? If so, by how much?

2.) Can the asset be damaged by the leasee to the point of removing all value thus making payments for 24 months (by example) and then defaulting leaving you with an asset worth $0.00 and only 24 months worth of payments.

3.) Can any outside force make this asset less valuable by signing a law or losing a judgement?

If you answered in the negative to any of these issues then I would seriously consider getting as much of your money up front and/or as fast as possible.

So...in a word.....listen to KK :)


--T

dchottie 07-02-2003 07:52 PM

OK, I ran these two contracts using a basic amortization schedule *link to calculations at bottom* which is what is used by a lender when you purchase anything like a house or car or anything of substantial value or even when you get a loan. It shows you the principal amounts which for you would be the amount that they would be paying you for your "item". It shows what the total amount the person you're making the contract with will pay and what the breakdown is on that for total interest versus total principal.

The difference that you will be getting in the long run is quite substantial. You will get $1,080,500.00 if you go with the 40 year contract. You will only get $594,500.oo with the 18 year contract.

Now an 18 year contract consists of 216 months and if you look on the amortization of the 40 year note at the 216 month mark you will have received on this note up until that point $441,564.00. That is a difference of only $152,936.00. By this point the person that is leasing from you will have actually already paid the worth of the item that they are leasing. So, you are already $125,000 or so in the clear. If you go ahead an opt to take the contract for 40 years then everything from the 216 month point on is gravy. You are looking at an additional $486,000 in your pocket for taking the 40 year contract.

My suggestion would be, take the 40 year contract and then when you have received payment 305 which would be approximately 25 years and 4 months into the contract, take everything from payment 306 on and treat it as if you were never receiving it and put it into some strategic investments and turn the additional $486,000 into a hell of a lot more.

Basically, to put it in a nutshell, if you do the 40 year versus the 18 year you gamble on losing approximately $153,000 if the guy defaults at the 18 year mark. But you've already cleared the cost of the item you are leasing to him by $125,000. $153,000 seems like a small price to pay to more than triple that amount or with good investments the sky is the limit.

Amortization Schedule But Read the Text First

Kimmykim 07-02-2003 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SweetT

So...in a word.....listen to KK :)


--T

LOL, who do you think I learned alot of this stuff over the years from my dear ;)

Rick Latona 07-02-2003 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SweetT

--T

1.) Does the asset appreciate or depreciate? If so, by how much?

It appreciates.

2.) Can the asset be damaged by the leasee to the point of removing all value thus making payments for 24 months (by example) and then defaulting leaving you with an asset worth $0.00 and only 24 months worth of payments.

Possibly. But it is covered in the contract that they can't.

3.) Can any outside force make this asset less valuable by signing a law or losing a judgement?

Unlikely.

If you answered in the negative to any of these issues then I would seriously consider getting as much of your money up front and/or as fast as possible.

Did I answer those negativelly?

Chris Mallick 07-02-2003 08:19 PM

Rick, if you need a couple grand a month I am sure we can work something out :)

And, I am disappointed that you are paying the winner on PayPal and not ePassporte. (KK, I can't believe you missed this one...)

But seriously folks... there are not enough facts to determine which option is best. Risk is a prime factor. If the likelihood of collection decreases over time, you get as much as you can as quickly as you can. There's more, obviously, but if you give me all the facts (by email) I will give you my humble opinion.

C

PS: Asset is one ?t?, not two dude!

Monk 07-02-2003 08:37 PM

Use table 6-4 Present Value of $1

http://www3.interscience.wiley.com:8...aluetables.pdf

A. 2250 x 12months
= 27,000 / year
x 11.92461
= $321.964


B. 2750 x 12months
= 33,000 / year
x 9.37189
= $309,272


I didn't read all of the answers as they seemed long and boring but you can use the above Present Value table rather than crunching the numbers thru a formula

Rick Latona 07-02-2003 08:38 PM

Man, I got all the big boys out tonight. We are going to get this figured out for sure. Chris, you can bet your asset that I'm emailing you now.

SweetT 07-02-2003 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kimmykim
LOL, who do you think I learned alot of this stuff over the years from my dear ;)
Aw shucks, KK, I always thought it was the other way around :)


Quote:

Originally posted by Rick Latona
It appreciates.
Thats a positive !! (as long as you are absolutely positively sure that the asset cannot depreciate)

Quote:

Originally posted by Rick Latona
Possibly. But it is covered in the contract that they can't.
..that they can't what? Damage the asset? Default on payment? *ALL* contracts say that....enforcing it is a-whole-nother thing. Could I recommend getting a Certificate of Deposit as collateral for the purchase price?

"possibly" is an "almost" positive.


Quote:

Originally posted by Rick Latona
Unlikely.
"unlikely" is an "almost" positive.

So I guess you have no negatives....but it seems like you are selling DeBeers Diamonds, Gold Bars, or Crude Oil to be so sure of the future value of the asset....JMHO.

With more info I could give you a better answer.


--T

Rick Latona 07-02-2003 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SweetT


"unlikely" is an "almost" positive.

So I guess you have no negatives....but it seems like you are selling DeBeers Diamonds, Gold Bars, or Crude Oil to be so sure of the future value of the asset....JMHO.

With more info I could give you a better answer.


--T

Check your email.

Rick Latona 07-02-2003 09:03 PM

I never imagined that this thread would be one post away from a third page.

BlueDesignStudios 07-02-2003 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Rick Latona
I never imagined that this thread would be one post away from a third page.
Any question always brings out the experts of GFY. Page 3!

SweetT 07-02-2003 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BlueDesignStudios

Any question always brings out the experts of GFY. Page 3!


Speak for yourself....I was going for the 20 bucks :Graucho


--T

BlueDesignStudios 07-02-2003 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SweetT



Speak for yourself....I was going for the 20 bucks :)


--T

Hahah LOL - as was I, and I was working damn hard for it all over the first two pages :)

High Quality 07-02-2003 09:15 PM

The USDollar will crash within the next 15 years (see Post WWI germany and photos of children playing with stacks of money), so your contract is worth whatever you think you can get in the next 15 years.

Good luck.

BTW, now is the time to buy a house on a huge ass mortgage. :)

BradShaw 07-02-2003 09:17 PM

Stuff like this is why I employee a CPA and finanical advisor. Way over my head, heck I failed algebra!

FlyingIguana 07-02-2003 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Rick Latona
Ok,

The question is regarding the time value of money. I need to know which is more valuable, why and what formula was used to determine the answer.

A. 2,250 dollars a month for 40 years.
B. 2,750 dollars a month for 18 years.

Use 8% as an interest rate and tell me what each contract is worth today in a lump sum.

do you still need to know? i haven't looked through the thread. if you do i can tell you in a second

Imageauction 07-02-2003 10:01 PM

DOH! misread the question!

Rick Latona 07-02-2003 10:02 PM

The answers in this thread make me wonder if anyone understands what Visa means by 1%.

4Pics 07-02-2003 11:03 PM

Is this for a Home or Building or is this for something on the internet?

FlyingIguana 07-02-2003 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Lenny2
In order to figure the time value of money you need a number to use for inflation right?
that would be included in the required rate of return

Kimmykim 07-02-2003 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Rick Latona
The answers in this thread make me wonder if anyone understands what Visa means by 1%.
Dont think those mofo's aint on the down payment plan for one second baby ;)

FlyingIguana 07-02-2003 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by WiredGuy
The formula you would use is:
A = P(1 + r/100)^t

Where A = Amount, P = Principle, R = Interest Rate per annum and t = time in years. But you mentioned you're adding money every month, so the above will give you per annum so the interest will be off by a bit but should be close enough to compute the difference.

The actual formula you would use would depend when interest is computed, so say interest is paid out N times per year then you adjust the formula to this:
A = P[1 + r/(N * 100)]^(Nt)

Where N = number of times per annum interest is paid.

I'll stick to the easy case...

So, Contract A: $2250 * 12 = $27,000 per year
So, Contract B: $2750 * 12 = $33,000 per year

Contract A = $27000*(1.08) ^ 40 = $586,562.08
Contract B = $33000*(1.08) ^ 18 = $131,868.64

Contract A would win.

But remember the numbers are not exact since you can't do $2250 * 12 really since it depends when interest is computed. If interest is computed continiously, that gets even uglier...

Hope this helps Bobble Head :)
WG

lets take A and assume annual compounding.
n=40
i=8
pmt=27000

so pv=321,964.56

monthly compounding would be 323,595.88

FlyingIguana 07-03-2003 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by traffic addict
Hi Rick as you said

So here it is again just for you

The numbers that you see in my formula are present value, if you want to know the value in the end of the period you need to use a deferent Formula, but it doesn't mater any way, because you need to know what is the best offer, and the best way to check it out is by using the present value of the offer.

there is no logic in checking what will be the value of a in another 40 years and to comper it to the value of b in another 18 years.

You need to bring bouth offers to the same date, and that is why you are useing the present value formula.

you can trust me, I have an MBA from Wharton

your numbers are wrong, the pv of a is over 300k. its pretty simple stuff.

Kimmykim 07-03-2003 01:30 AM

Risk level.

Can I say it louder?

RISK LEVEL.

Will Sweet T say it with me?

risk level.

The only thing that maybe cant be hurt is dirt.


Watch the insurance clauses in your investment properties. Very closely.

Carrie 07-03-2003 03:11 AM

My brain hurts.
At this point I simply want to see the house that is worth this much payment per month. Pictures?

Maca 07-03-2003 06:19 AM

Linear thought: If the question really is which is more VALUABLE then it doesn't really matter what interest you apply:

The simple answer is the more valuable is A; 2250 x 12 x 40 = 1,080,000

B; 2750 x 12 x 18 = 594,000

Rick Latona 07-03-2003 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kimmykim
Risk level.

Can I say it louder?

RISK LEVEL.

Will Sweet T say it with me?

risk level.

The only thing that maybe cant be hurt is dirt.


Watch the insurance clauses in your investment properties. Very closely.

My friend, you are always right. I'm not sure that I like you so much. Especially since I didn't get invited to your party. :(

FlyingIguana 07-03-2003 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Maca
Linear thought: If the question really is which is more VALUABLE then it doesn't really matter what interest you apply:

The simple answer is the more valuable is A; 2250 x 12 x 40 = 1,080,000

B; 2750 x 12 x 18 = 594,000

if you want to know what the value of the future cash flows are today then you need a discount rate...

Jeffery 07-03-2003 09:51 AM

You say an 8% interest? Does this mean that NONE of the monthly stipend is spent (All goes into the bank). Meaning the previous years stipend + interest goes into the bank and the current year's interest is calculated from the new total?

Are you looking for the value of the contracts at their closure with all interest computed or the value of each contract after 40 years with all interest computed?

Should be pretty easy to figure up in either case.

Rick Latona 07-03-2003 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Jeffery
You say an 8% interest? Does this mean that NONE of the monthly stipend is spent (All goes into the bank). Meaning the previous years stipend + interest goes into the bank and the current year's interest is calculated from the new total?

Are you looking for the value of the contracts at their closure with all interest computed or the value of each contract after 40 years with all interest computed?

Should be pretty easy to figure up in either case.

At this point we have most of it figured out. The issue is that there is an exchange of an asset for one of the two contracts. The challenge is to determine which contract has greater value by converting the contracts into today's value.


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