Thanks for your concern but the PPS model is not rocket science.
We will be just fine. : ))

We personally have never had chargerback issues (KNock on wood) if you want you can ask chris mallack at the paycom dinner in vegas.

the only thing that has changed is the margins are tighter but there is still profit.

don't get me wrong it doesn't help every time a new rev-share program launches and takes from the pie.

we put everything back into pornkings and we are very solid

so i have no idea who you are speaking about? everyone I know with PPS is still doing well. but not like 98

how do your ratios compare on the upfront full price with the low monthly rebills vs low price trials

Far-L - you can't get an average surfer value in 4 months - even if you only keep 6% of the original trials (so in your scenario 6) for 8 more months you're talking another 48 rebills. You should be breaking even in about month 4 and then you starting turning up the profitability from there.

Don't get me wrong, don't operate properly and you can VERY easily go from black to red - just miss a couple of your variables and you could be in trouble. However, that is usually the same in any business, whether it be service, manufacturing, food, etc...

Wow. 1/3 of your signups are walkin? I wonder if you would have those without the affiliate traffic?

with free trials these day, what percentage auctally convert to members?

PPS definitly works

Like Marc said, a tight spreadsheet is key, and the variables can vary from the ones that were posted in this thread.

If you have a 45% conversion from trial to regular membership, you don't need to cross-sell heavily or try to bleed the members.

i am sure you get that with audreylive

we do ;)

I'm in love with this thread.

check sig for a good pps program

We do about 40-50%

Still to early to tell. Most our webmasters send to our Porn4abuck or free trial

its harder to convert our paid trial program since we ask for $34 up front and then $5.99 a month rebills. since the payout is higher you average about the same $ amount at the end of the day.

its all in how you like to promote sites.

I came up with the reverse trial it hasn't cau :( ght on yet.

Paid trial program has a new way of billing instead of a $5.99 trial for 5 days reoccurring at $35 we have reversed it. One time initial set up fee of $34.99 and $5.99 a month reoccurring every month there after. This way we can have a High payout and not worry about chargebacks etc... Built to convert and retain!

I agree with you, but even accounting for that difference, and my example is very hypothetical to begin with, my point is that you will have to perform at a very high level to make all the variables profitable... If any one variable could throw it all off then that is not exactly a very stable profit model and that is my main point.

It will definitely take a high performance site to maintain that level of conversion.

Yes but when its time to cash out all the reacurring becomes profit and when you have a large database it ads up to millions.

Most programs don't fold because they are in the red they fold to cash out. they already paid out the webmasters. all the reacurring is profit.

Interesting idea..

40-50% that is a high number for free trials converting into paid members

Roger... I am not quite sure why you keep thinking I am referring to you guys since if I meant you then I would say it openly. If you don't know who I am inferring then it is not my place to say.

BTW...

I wish all our businesses a happy and prosperous new year!

Varius - your post made me wonder if your good full signup ratio is due to the fact that it's an adult dating site and not an adult site and if so, have you considered or already experimented with raising the lowest available monthly membership fee even more to one of the standard adult site fees of $29.95, $34.95, or $39.95 to see if the signup ratio / retention would remain good enough to make it even more profitable?

and vice versa - have the PPS program owners in here experimented with the approach of offering lower membership fees without the trials. And if so, why haven't you adopted that approach... I've seen some big adult sites offer the low memberships of $19.95 and $29.95... like danni.com for example, just wondering why not all?

Has it something to do with the strategy of collecting e-mails from as many confirmed credit card holders as possible and later trying to upsell them something/anything through e-mail marketing?

Also wondering why there is such a huge membership fee difference between adult dating sites and adult sites, where the adult dating sites, imho, from the visitor's perspective have a more desirable/real-live content, hence could ask more for the membership and the adult site signups are more based on spontaneousness of the visitor.

This is a great thread! My experience with trials has been the same as Alex From San Diego. I have never considered PPS but this thread has me thinking. Marc De what is your email addy? I would like to discuss something with you.

So how will you fund your pps if you do that?

Those are pretty darn slim margins to run on.

My bad... i may have misread this... Do you mean the surfer pays $34/$5 recurring or the webmaster makes $34 and $5 recurring?

Marc De's dead on. It's all about execution. One key factor is having tours that convert well enough to make the recruitment model work and member sections with enough interactivity/novelty to make the retention model work.

The more successful the conversion is on signups means the greater the number necessary to finance those signups. With enough of a member base recurring this can be carried since the cash flow is there, but if that is not there or some other way to pay for the signups then you are going to have a tough time getting out of the hole high converting traffic would create. Admittedly that is a kind of a "good" problem to have but mismanage it and you are going to tank quickly.

To echo a common theme here... strong forecasting and financial management is critical.

Nasty Dollars, Platinum Bucks, Topbucks, and Traffic Cash Gold all give me $40 per SU - because I do high volume.

You probably wouldn't know about that though.

Yes, this is true. Trial-to-full will max out around 30% no matter who you are...unless you use some kind of one-click-upgrade (OCCash does this now), but setting that up is a technical nightmare.

Since we've switched to one-click-fulls we are doing 50%-60%. It kind of pisses surfers off, but there are more and more "trial hoppers" that do the trail, download all your shit, and then get the fuck out. That is where programs are losing money on PPS.

10,000 sign-ups total = payout: $350,000
10,000 sign-ups X 500 uniques = 5 million hits

60% trials = 6,000 trials X $4.95 = $29,700
40% full month = 4,000 full X $39.95 = $159,800

30% trial convert = 1,800 full X $39.95 = $71,910

1st month members = 5800
2nd month members = 2610 @ 55% drop X $39.95 = $104,269
3rd month members = 1174 @ 55% drop X $39.95 = $46,901

Total: $412,580 - 12% processing = $363071


10% of sign-ups is an xsale = $10 per sale = $10,000
50% of the traffic will see the exit, 1:3000 convert to view rate X $35 per sale = $29166

New Total: $402237 profit of = $52237
Still have longer-term retention; e-mails, hope to god better exit results, up sells, and a mixture of other areas pps programs make money. Some don't pay on checks, web900, etc.. Some say they do, but don't. Type-in traffic from webmaster screwups or just for whatever reason.. And a mixture of other BS that paysites can earn income with.


Some programs can run PPS with no xsales and much lower exit rates, as long as retention is good. First off "MOST" programs have a 20% trial to convert rate. 30-35% isn't easy to his these days. 45% month to month, isn't bad, not what most PPS programs sit at.



Fact is, you CAN run a PPS program, and not shave. Well my math could be off some :)
A good, no bs, recurring program, will crush a PPS in payouts though.. Joins are worth $80-$120 on average.. Do you want $35ps or $40-$60+ after a split.. Invest over time, or instant return. The above math is $36 per join value just after 3 months. Long-term retention would put it over $80 a join. Earning you more than a PPS program. I have to admit though; it needs to be a good revshare system.

Neither would roughly 98% of affiliates of the world. The performance tier would certainly count as one of the variables to control...

TheDoc: great post!

Good post, but...

I disagree here...

"New Total: $402237 profit of = $52237"

$52237 is still all part of the gross. Programs have a massive overhead - most have large staffs, offices, advertising, and I don't even want to get into the hosting bills.

The profits that programs once raked in on exit traffic and spam are not what they used to be. Retentention is not what it used to be. Surfers that have joined a few sites are much more savy.

PPS will be around for a while, but the payouts are likely to drop.

You almost must remember that affiliates can be very demanding - they want free hosting, they want this, and they want that. We've had MPEG people we've set up with hosting actually cost us money because of bandwidth.

It's not as cut-and-dry as your numbers make it look.

So true, that's why ARS did so well. They executed on that model. I used to have 1:200 ratios on their Booty College and Black Foxes sites. Like clockwork.

i love this thread. Intresting that doc is saying a revshare will earn you more money now since that is what he runs

Totally depends on the content quality and interactivity/community level.

and on the updates frequncy. ;)

Yes i would but I also was smart enough to check one of their tours and they have a higher trial (44.95).

It is pretty interesting that your biggest money is from the same programs you claimed were shaving you a few pages back.

Revshare guys want it both ways. No way can PPS models work but we will make you more with revshare.

Watch PPS go away and Jay's new sig would read how I made $200k.

PPS is not some complicated algorithm. Some programs are unable to do it because it will require capital (if being done honestly), while others choose not to do it.

For instance, here's how rudimentary it is. I checked out a TopBucks site
http://www.herfirstasstomouth.com/s1/index.html

Topbucks pay $35 per signup.

The trial is $9.95 for 7 days, full membership after that period is $39.95. So assuming it goes to full membership, that leaves them with $9.95 + $39.95 - $35 = $14.90

But even if it doesn't go to full membership, note that there is a pre-checked cross sell which reads "Click here to signup for a 1 day trial Membership to Tight Buttholes - One Day Trial Membership for $2.97. After 1 day, Membership renews automatically at $29.97 every 1 month."

So even if the $9.95 trial doesn't go to full $39.95 membership, there is the cross sell safety in place that charges $29.95 after one day. Therefore even if the user doesn't become a full member, but doesn't "Unclick" rather then "Click" to join Tight Buttholes, TopBucks earns $9.95 + $29.95 = $39.99 within one day. And therefore earn $39.99 - $35 = $4.99 in one day. If the user goes to full membership and the One day trial membership goes thru TB earns $39.95 + $4.99 = $44.98 off the member in profit (this is how much earned after paying the affiliate the $35).

A revshare program operating in the same manner can pay $35 or even $70, but not many revshare programs it seems, charge $39.99 for their membership and have a one day prechecked trial of $2.95 trial that leads to a $29.95 membership (Imagine if a site like Karups did this rather than simply charging the $29.95 per month that they do). I'm not quite sure why this is the case. I think it goes back to the difference in the philosophy of their marketing. But even without doing so, we're still in debate as to which one will earn an affiliate more money. I think if Karups included all the features in the join page that a PPS program does, the answer would clearly be revshare.

Revshare programs tend to be quite simple when it comes to price. The price is X for one month recurring. The PPS model hits you with essentially four different subscriptions at once when you're at the join page ($9.95 7 day subscription, $39.99 30 day subscription, $2.95 1 day subscription, $29.95 30 day subscription). Is it wrong to do this? No.

Basically PPS models rely on the fact that many consumers are not keen shoppers. Yes, a certain percentage of them will refund/chargeback, but most will not and the ones that do are made up via other methods such as mailings etc (note the prechecked agreement to receive newsletters on the TB page).

It's reminds of of real world retail, where you buy something for $39.99 that has a $30 rebate. All you have to do is mail in the rebate form to get your $30 so that the product only actually costs you $9.99. I always mail in my rebates, but do any of you know how many people in the general public actually mail in rebates? The number of people is between 1-10 percent and it's usually 1 percent rather than 10 percent. Surprising isn't it? Those are industry figures. Companies understand these figures. They know that rebates work in their favor or they wouldn't offer them. I say good for the company. If the customer doesn't choose to take money back by simply mailing in a form then that's that.

In online adult, companies understand that a certain % of people will upgrade from a trial by choice or default and only a % of those will refund/chargeback. They understand their customers. The difference is that in online adult, these users may be less likely to join other sites in the future even if they don't refund/chargeback the subscription because they realize they may have overpaid. It's perhaps one (and only one) of potentially many reasons why those 'margins' everybody in this thread is talking about have dwindled and continue to get smaller and may very well become unprofitable at some point.

Good observation. I remember when some other sponsor dropped their trials and suddenly they claimed "We get the same conversions without trials, trials are the demise of this industry and are bound to die". Then a little while later trials are back on the exact same sponsor and of course they "convert better than sliced bread".

Everybody will always claim their program and business model is superior. It's up to the affiliates to make up their own mind and see through the smoke screens.

I totally agree. And better yet, offer both types of models so that you win either way.

David you guys offer a limited trial on your sites?

Yes I run a revshare program, which I never pushed on this thread. A no, webmasters don't earn $35-$40 per sale on average with us. We only just started charging $29.95 and just hit a year old.

Many revshare programs have webmasters that average $30-$40 per sale (and higher). Lightspeed cash is a good example. They also charge $35 after the trial.


If you have good quality niche targed traffic, push revshare, the retention will earn you more than a PPS.

Yeah right that is why a ton of revshare guys are here saying they can't pay $35 a sign up. If they were paying over that then this thread would be very quiet.

good point

Finally :thumbsup someone who gets it

I think the revshare guys are saying that they can pay $35 or more but not on the initial signup. It will come over 2-3 months. They simply don't have enough funds to do it out of pocket and then have to wait 2-3 months to get their share.

Unless they would attempt to get those revenues through both/either mailing and cross-sales.

Matt

correct, thanks

Actually, they are talking about non-trial joins. No way a trial join is worth $80-120 over any period of time. If it was worth that much, big programs would pay $60/trial, and no one would ever wonder how can PPS make money.

Full joins at $30/month are worth that much, but we all know trials sell better and this is why PPS use trials. If many people make $35/signup with revshare, it needs to be a very good site that retains if it's trial joins. If it's full joins, than keep in mind that some sponsors pay up to $50-55 for "active" (full) joins.

also, the 60/40 ratio of trials/full joins mentionned a few posts up by TheDoc seems way too high. At $40/month, I imagine you won't get more than 15-20% full months. We use $29/month for our full joins, so I can't be sure of the figure for the $40/month, but still seems way high.

Kevin2 - [email protected]

Also - I saw someone saying 40% initial sign ups on full month - don't know who is getting that but you're lucky if you get 5% :)