high roller

id like to contact you if possible.

92% in miami in how long? thats crazy.

It's never raised that high in so little time ... It will bust .

never say never ... it will bite you in the ass ..

actually south florida. this growth has been going on in for the past 18 months and still going strong but i think its going to level off by the fall but its still going to be very very good and will last for sometime. even the least attractive properties have gone up.

my brother in law bought a property a little over a yr ago sold it for twice as much as he paid for last month.

i also think within 3 to 5 yrs your gonna see alot of properties on the market due to people getting into loans/homes/mortages they couldnt afford or actually didnt understand ie baloons and the like. i base this on a few people i know who have been in real estate for yrs.

yes and when everyone tries to get out all at once....

well you can figure out wha happens

Interesting how our posts were virtually completely ignored on this thread. Everybody is just talking about the cash their friends are raking in and quoting magazines and articles they've read.

The whole country is sleep walking into an abyss. The equity in their homes makes them think they're rich and they're just thinking of what to buy next

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION is what has kept inflation down. Cheap labor has that effect in the short term. But it isn't cheap labor... it's subsidized labor. Each minimum wage mexican picking lettuce and keeping grocery prices low puts his six kids in school costing taxpayers 7 thousand dollars a year EACH CHILD. The American taxpayer is subsidizing the cheap labor being exploiting by large agri-business etc

WAKE UP AMERICA - you're living on borrowed time. While you're bank account is getting fat you're importing your future oppressors. Large populations of foreigners that hate America and like vultures are feasting on a decaying corpse

Lovely picture isn't it? My advice is enjoy the next few years....while you still can

yes this is one of the main reasons california is soo fucked.. healthcare for illegals is even more than putting their kids though college...

:1orglaugh :1orglaugh

hey man, how's that e-book coming?

you are renting. You have to own the house.

Keep laughing - I hear the Chinese are already calling Vancouver a "colony"

Lars,

I thought the exact same thing when I saw the cover of Fortune.

you cannot find a piece of shit 1 BR apt in NYC for under 2k/month to rent. its unreal.

RUN FOR THE HILLS!

THE IMMIGRANTS ARE GOING TO RUIN THE USA!

same bullshit was said at the turn of the century, 20's, 30's, 40's when every nationality immigrated to this country.

my advice to to get an education.

Fed Funds rate is 3%. It was 1% a year ago.

yup.

opportunity.

:thumbsup

As far as history, there have been some REAL serious real estate busts both on the local level and national level (Japan). This is not just a US bubble, it is a world-wide bubble and not just in real-estate prices but nearly all assets. Check out commodity prices the past few months.

The inflation adjusted nation-wide average rise in housing prices the past year has been the steepest rise in history. When you can say "steepest rise in history" you can usually be assured the bust is next. When? no one knows. There can be a real disconnect from fundamentals when fortunes are being made. Consider all the people who in 1996 forecasted the stock market would burst. Greenspan used the phrase "irrational exuberance" in 1996. Four years later the market was still rising and the new catch-phrase was "new economy"; a concept that recurringly appears in such telling years as 1929, 1971 and 2000. Then the markets tanked. The Nasdaq lost about 80% of its value in a short period.

What always happens in the manias is that people claim the fundamentals have changed and support the rise. In 2000, increases in productivity would push the Dow Jones to 36,000.

You can still buy the book.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...books&n=507846
Published September, 1999. What timing!

Now people think there are fundamental reasons why people in Boston and Miami should be getting rich by buying property in one year and selling in the next. Bulls are a great ride for people who don't get on at the top. Those who do get bucked.

Absolutely :thumbsup

Hahaha, good one, thanks for the link! :thumbsup

"One example they cite is Exxon, which you could have bought in 1977 for about $6 when it was paying a dividend of 37 cents, or about 6 percent a share. Twenty years later, the dividend had grown to $1.63 or 27 percent of your initial $6 investment. Compare two $1,000 investments over 20 years in Exxon and 7.5 percent Treasury bonds: payments from the T-bonds would amount to $1,500; the Exxon dividends would add up to $3,585--not to mention that shares in Exxon went from $6 to $61 during that same period. To get to their target of 36,000, the authors project dividend growth of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow and apply a valuation measure that they call PRP ("perfectly reasonable price"). Many will dismiss this kind of thinking as wishful, but they're probably the same Chicken Littles who have been calling the market overpriced for years (think back to January 1993, when the Dow was hovering around 3,300)."

100 bursts

101 ways to skin a cat

nice thread

Lars---I 100% agree with you.

I am in the philly area. In 89 i bought a townhouse. In 91 sold it at a small loss. In 91 bought a big house. I sold it in 98 (after divorce)10% higher than I purchased it but must have put 100k into it--so I lost.

But both my x and I bought townhouses at the end of 98 beginning of 99 and were both up 2.5 times what we paid.

The other side of this equation was the stockmarket made a fortune from 89-98 and this is when real estate was at a standstill. Real Estate jumped from 98 till today and the stockmarket has taken a bath..Now its time for the reverse to happen...

I am back in the market now and I expect it to be big for the next several years. I don't know if the nasdaq will hit 5000 again by 2010 but I'd bet it will closer to 5000 then 2000. Its time to buy good profitable tech stocks again. Be smart and don't allow any losses over 20% and sell them when u have too and do not ever fall in love with any 1 company. I use a service call Cabot since the late 80's and they made me a fortune until the market dived and I started thinking that I new everything and started listening to myself. Pick a broker that u trust or a stock picking service that u trust and just listen to them....

Like any market, the bubble popping, if indeed it does, will take out some of the excess in the housing market. People who were truly stupid (bidding against each other above the asking price, buying houses unseen, etc.) could get hurt.

But most single family real estate sold in the U.S is owner occupied. I signed a contract to for a house in Flordia, and am not worried. I negotiated the hell out of and did the research. What is driving the growth in that area is an influx of baby-boomers and retirees. They are running out of land, and as new development becomes impossible, the existing real estate goes up. I don't think its possible to come up with a forecast where Florida stops growing. Its just not possible to manufacture area to live with Florida's most valuable commodity - sunshine.

The reason real estate never shaves off 50 or 60% as stock markets occasionally do is simple - you don't have to sell during the downterm, if you occupy the house and aren't in over your head. I've waited out at least two real estate downturns in my life and came out fine, so I am not worried about this one either.

Japan is a totally different case. Totally fucked up banking system and corruption killed their econcomy off.

we just switched out 401 k over to a real estate fund and that bitch is making mad money the past three weeks.


My friend who bought a house on the beach in florida a few years ago for 110k, it's now worth 215K..

I wonder what my house is at at the moment.

I made millions and will continue to. There will not be a crash but taking insanly huge profits may stop.. fine with me.

Your home is only an investment if you sell it. Always remember that.

i THINK IT'S ALMOST OVER......

Of course you couldn't care less, you bank $20 million per picture you're in. :Oh crap

Bubbles eventually burst just like chewing gum. But the good thing there's always new packs of gum in the economic pipeline for us to all blow up again.

:1orglaugh

http://www.antiquegumball.com/classi...lassic_bgm.jpg

Yup when all the News is screaming about how your mising the boat the end is near..


when the stock market was rocking it was on the front page of newspapers many times right before th end.. how often do you see the stock market on the front page of the newspaper.. when ya go to a party of average joes.. all you hear about is how they are getting rich or want to get in.... and how they are suddenly experts.. I have not heard talk of the latest IPO or the next hot .com in along time.. but I do hear real estate real estate.. this means most people are already in or just about to take the final plunge...


It will be interesting to see hwo things unfold in the next year.

:) nice good tips.. In santa cruz I have always ahd to buy stuff ata rageing 12-15 times monthly rent.. today you can not find anything with better than 10.. meaning nothing is worth buying here.. And I dont want to move and I like to be a little hands on on the properties.. Thats prolly cost me some money over the years.

hahaha nice one. Are you a current buyer of real estate ? Last 6 months ?

yes, i made my first big money in SF bay area real estate in the late 70's and 80's. i understand what you are talking about.

the problem with the bay area (and many other highly gentrified areas in the usa) is that rental values do not support mortgages and other landlord costs so the carrying costs are too high, and the leverage is not good.

add to that a semi-socialist mindset on the part of the general electorate (rent control issues fucked up berkeley for me big-time) and you will see a MUCH greater ROI is areas like kansas, indiana, SD, MN, MI, WI, etc etc.

good luck to you, SC is a great town, but i will never pay a cool million to live next to a bunch of jigs or pot smoking renters. that's the prob with the bay area---it's a quality of life issue.

and the Southwest - New Mexico is hot right now

yes, very true.

The stock market blows for most

Quality of life is why people move there. It's just that your definition of "quality" and theirs must be different. :)

True. But their main worry won't be so much the mortgage payments they are paying but the erosion of the value of their property. If there are fewer buyers coming in later to push the price of existing inventories up, the prices will begin to stagnate or even fall. This usually puts the fear into some real estate holders because they become UPSIDE DOWN on their loans -- (ie., payments are worth more than the value of the property). Hence, they sell--thereby triggering another round of price erosion.

These will be the first group of people that suffer. Unfortunately, even fixed rate guys will suffer as well once base property value begins eroding due to inflation-based rate changes.