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Instead of buying more real estate i have decided to invest in Reits with more liquidity than actual properties and mroe diversification across the whole country.
IYR is an ETF that holds tons of Real estate stocks and pays a nice dividend. And I can get out on the turn of a dime when the bubble starts to fade. |
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they keep saying the bubbles going to burst and LA still is rising it took a small dip for a few years but the amount it jumped was tremendous if you didn't panic you made out big. I think we just have to many people on this planet and we keep multiplying I think real estate is a safe bet if you cant sell when the market drops their will be plenty of renters |
Didn't long term interest rates just go down ;)
Sorry guys no burst soon. I seriouly doubt there will be a burst anyway. Sure it will level off soon, if it hasn't already peaked in most places, but i doubt it will take a huge drop. What is more likely is that as interest ratesslowly creep up (even though the latest long term rates dropped) the market will likely level off and the number of transactions will decline, but the values will hold. There will be less buyers and sellers, not a flood of sellers with no buyers. values could hold at these levels for 5 - 10 years with out going up much. That will be your market correction, it will be over time, not over night. |
Short of a natural disaster triggering a sudden sell off, the low interest rates by the FED will continue to stoke the flames of this bubble.... it will be a while until any burst hits...if any.
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I am starting to look for my first house before the summer is over.
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Good luck to all..
I just keep thinking JAPAN 25 years and its still under water .. botht he stock market and the housing market. stocks there went to 45,000 and dropped to 10K where they are still at 25 years later.. And housing there is very similr in drop and never has come back. if its too good to be true and it is then its probably not ~! |
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Best analogy I hear was that the bubble deflates before it bursts. |
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Its going to be very interesting. Bill gross the bond king says we are already almost done raising rates. If rates dont go up much more the market may continue for a while longer |
bump cuzz its on teh plate again
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I just had a conversation with my dad over the weekend about real estate. He owns properties (rentals in various forms, houses, condos, apartments, etc) and stocks and other shit.
His idea is that it is going to be just like in 1989-1991. People will leave the keys on the kitchen table and walk away. Especially the interest only idiots. At that point he is telling me it is time for me to finally buy some real estate, doing it at rock bottom prices. I think I will take his advice and wait another 1 or 2 years to buy a house. He was a working stiff until 1988. When the stock market crashed and the real estate did over the next 3 years, he took money from his other investments and bought up a shitload of real estate for almost nothing down. He is confident it is coming around again. |
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Also would like to say thanks to Lars, he has a lot of good advice and isn't affraid to share it.
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These meteoric rises haven't hit many rural areas, North Carolina is relatively unaffected by the recent increases. Areas were growth is high are areas where supply hasn't caught up with demand and probably never will. New York, LA, Boston and Coastal Florida. In this part of Florida it's hard to find a piece of vacant land. Very little new construction too.
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I think its starting to slow down in Boston. I saw a news report on houses are taking longer to sell now and sellers are starting to lower their prices.
Also my neighborhood rarely has homes for sale, now there are 4, and theyre not selling. |
It may come sooner... or later, but sure as hell there will be a bust! There are lots of underlying reasons and irrespective of the US or EU - the pattern is the same, tho the US is probably more vulnerable for obvious reasons.
One area where there still remains real estate opps is in less highly geared countries and locations where the cocktail party chat does not revolve around real estate. Ask Juicy if he's checked out property in Nicaragua - tho even that is being eaten up! |
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PS In the past few weeks in NYC we're seeing something we last saw in 1990-1993 ... a bunch of listings are comming out with higher than normal commissions to induce brokers to sell them. Could it be a sign the market is cooling off? |
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Interesting |
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I was reading something today on local real estate in sant acruz california looks like we may have already seen the top.
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Our Opinion of what it means
July 2005: The average sales price for June was $880,829, slightly lower than last month?s record of $891,052. The average price went over $800,000 for the first time in March. |
Santa Clara numbers are out for June now too. Highest average price ever. The average home in San Jose is now $705,000 and let me tell you average isn't much as far as quality of home.
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Yeah thats for damn sure LOL was rollin aroudnthe rose garden the other day lookin at 1 mil plus homes that used to sell for 250K hahahha when I was a renter in that neigborhood. |
You can always tell when Lars is home at night because he bumps all his threads. :winkwink: Oh, and I am going to start pushing cams.com. :thumbsup
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See it works :) |
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yikes that is crazy
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Like everything else, but espcially with real estate: location location location. Guess what, those of us who live in super high appreciation areas buy on interest only, make 300% on the flip, and the govt kicks you back your housepaymant during tax season. Or, if you're smart, start dropping more into a 401(k) or IRAs. Either way, you win.
Now..living interest only on a short term ARM in someplace like, er, nebraska, where the appreciate rate is less than 1%...thats dumb. |
I am Calling it we have now hit the top Right here Right now !
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Hey Lars,
I am in LA and Homes are going for around 500k to 750 k and this is for nothing too special. Plus with those rates food, gas and everything else is more expensive then other cities A similar home in say portland is 200k to 250k. and so everything there is a little cheaper. What I can't figure out is this? Do people who live in LA really make on average 3 x more then those in Portland or other cities? When you make more you pay more taxes. So really you have to make almost 4x more then an average person in another city. What people have to take a look at is wages and income can everybody make 6K net to pay a $3500 to $4500 mortgage? I mean that is ridiculous to think that everybody is making $120,000 to 300k a year? Something is gonna give real quickly. |
check the housing stocks. they have already started to give it up.
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I remember this all to well since I owned several investment property at the time. Of course over time they did appreciate, but the fact remains that almost across the board real estate went down. I think it's safer to say that over the long run real estate will go up, but there have been times where it has gone down. |
I am also starting to think we may be heading to recession in us in the next 6-12 months
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National Association of Realtors , sales of previously owned homes drop 2.6 percent
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050823/wall_street.html?.v=15 The latest snapshot of housing activity suggested that the sizzling housing market may be cooling slightly. Wall Street has been closely watching home sales, worried that the housing boom is nearing its end. Condos saw the worst hit and also price declines. Get ready folks I called the top, we are starting to see the cracks now. I am calling for a recession in the US in the next 6-12 months. |
new mortgage interest deduction rules could really fuck the market they want to reduce the ammount you can deduct from 1 million down to 350K....
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What do you guys think about commercial property though? Value is a derivative of the property's income so I can't really see it falling so much.
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Fuck my house is on the market now, anyoine want to buy it quickly?
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bumpass.......
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