I don't understand the appeal of Facebook :( It bores me. And it makes me angry that I have to use a school email to login...I never use my school email and I can't ever remember what it is! :)

If he's lucky it may grow and become the next Friendster.

sorry, I changed my mind. I am no more selling it.

Interesting story.

I would have sold. The internet community is precarious, fickle, and ever evolving. One day a company is king, the next it's in the waste basket and a new empire is on top.

But their commitment to growing the site is also noble and interesting, and it could work. Furthermore, once a site has the value that Facebook does, they too, can choose to expand their own empire, just as companies like Google have. They can sell to companies like Google and Yahoo, or they can focus on their product and also buy up other smaller valuable sites.

There seems to be a belief out there that once a site becomes popular it should sell out to a larger empire like Google. Well, why not be the next Google by buying out other sites, instead of selling out to empires like Google.

There are so many ways to think about it.

Loads of factors there :winkwink:

He is not going to actually get a billion in his hands - it's a corp and, how knows, it may earn more or not.

One thing that is prob secure right now is that he won't be exactly short of sufficient funds to live either way.

A lot of things could happen in 3 years especially with the social networking sites, their core group of users are very trendy. If something hot and new pops up it could cut into his projections big time.


I have no idea what they making RIGHT NOW, but for a site like that I would sell for 3x what I am making a year right now. I wouldn't try to forcast what I will be making 3 years from now as a basis. If it makes 100 million a year right now and you offered me 300 or more I would take it. If you offered me 200 million i would pass. I doubt that site is making more than 100 million so 1 billion would be a great deal for him to cash in. But what do i know. :winkwink:

now if he was making some of that income from rebilling memberships + ads I would sell for 4 - 5 years income.

it's all about the traffic IMO. Google has a lock on traffic. It would be very hard for a site like facebook or myspace (if they would have tried to go this route) to compete with the googles who already have such a firm foothold.

It's not impossible, but would be very hard, and risky.

if you are not going to sell out then you better grow your ass off to keep your edge. If you sit idle you will be gone. If you don't sell to google they will buy out on of your smaller competitors sooner or later and with googles existing traffic network they will likely surpass you.

You touched on a very key part, leverage and diversifing. You are right. He could take 500 million and tie it up in mutual funds and have billions guraranteed in a couple years, growing more and more each year. He wouldn't have to lift a finger to make that money.

Take the other half and spread it out over new internet startups, realestate developements, etc.. realestate would be pretty much a lock, unless he was a moron and did something really stupid. For the startups, if just one of them makes it big you can do it all over again.... You would be working you way to Bill Gates money in no time :winkwink:

or you say. no i will pass i can make that much in 3 years for now.

Lets see how they are doing when google, and a bunch of other big billion dollar corperations start buying up his competitors and he gets squeezed big time.

Just read the article

The site is "on track" to bring in 100 million this year. How much of that is PROFIT

IMO even if he makes his 3 year goal which I think is way over optimistic because it does not factor google and others buying up his competitors and cutting into his "future" share of the market he is banking on. Even if he comes close to his projections, it might still take 5+ years for him to come close to PROFITING 1 Billion.

insaine to pass this up. I would bet he doesn't come close to making 1 billion when this is all said in done. Only if he sells it. It wont happen from income generated from the site (profit).

The guy has had one hell of an achievement. but his past shows he does not have have a lot of experience with stuff like this. Ex hacker, hits it big with a site, 22 year old kid. I wouldn't say " well he must know what he is doing". I am sure he is getting advised but I would help the people advising him don't benefit from him keeping it :winkwink: Lots of snakes in the grass.

This will be interesting to watch.

Not to mention, you site gets hacked (the irony since he was a hacker) or you have a major programming error, something happens to piss people off and they leave by the thousands, etc... watch the value of yoru site tank over night. Especially when google and others will be gunning for your ass.

Well if your making 100 million a year and with current growth rates your looking at say 200 million next year. So i would predict that a worst case scenario is around 500 million total. But potentially you could make 20 billion or so over the lifetime of the site (maybe more!). So basically its a choice between 1 billion guaranteed or a range of 500 million to 20 billion dollars. Since even if something hotter comes along in 5 years you will still make good bank i think its a pretty good gamble. Myspace was bought at a steal price and was one of the best buy in history.

Like his attitude.