i suggest you read up on the nash equilibrium because you have gotten completely wrong
the two examples you are giving to prove nash equilibrium is wrong is exactly why it is right.

do a google search on the prisoners dilemma
the point about a nash equilibrium is that when you take into account the other persons choice the equilibrium is not optimum. (both prisoners serving 6 months). But it is the best possible solution for each competitor (each serving 5 years).

you are certainly shark type #2, and though I don't know you, I would hazard a guess that you are heavily vested in both traffic and cams.

so of course you want to see the whole industry go that way

but traffic - as well as cams, harddrives, toys, video/picture sites, upsells and every other thing you could want to sell would sell anyways - and heres the kicker - without all the free stuff!!!!


just got to quote this again

you think that those are the problems with all the free porn!?!?! we are definitly on different wavelengths

actually i have very little invested in adult i am looking at it from the outside without any bias influencing my decis
The fact is the selling of content in a world where fair use is protected means your content can be given away

The fact is nash equilbrium results in an ever increase supply of given away content.

conversely if you are a traffic guy the more content that is given away, the more page views you get, the more inventory you have to sell the more money you can make. If conversion ratios drop that means people have to buy more traffic from you to get the same result. Which means increased demand.

As a result if you are a content producer and you refuse to figuire out a way to make your content a traffic vehicle you are going to get eaten alive.

Conversely if you do figuire out how to do this (branding bugs, process monitization, product placement) then you become a competitor to existing traffic guys.

As an alternative choice money that would normally have to flow to the traffic guys (because ratios suck) would move to you because it is more productive.

Look at product placement in the television enviroment. As commercial ads become less and less effective product placement is becomming more and more expensive. A bigger and bigger portion of the development budget is comming from product placement. And traditional advertising agencies are competing with product placement agencies for the same customers.

If i was truely heavily invested in the traffic side, i would posting all kinds of threads like this one, trying to sucker as many of you guys to stay away from turning your content into traffic sources.

I would be making arguements like there is no product placement in porn because mainstream advertisers would not be willing to advertise in porn (ignoring the fact that mainstream advertisers are not going to buy the ads on porn torrent sites/ or porn tubes either)

But i keep pointing out that you should be targeting the advertisers who are supporting the traffic guys. Competing against them for their money.


the problems you are concerned with (low ratios, loss of exclusivity) are not problems for the traffic side of the business. Which means they will not be problems if you convert your content into a traffic source.

Oh, but it's ok to convert surfers over to wannabe webmasters :2 cents:

Maybe I had it backwards and it is Nash that does take into consideration laziness and fear of the unknown. This is what I found about the prisoner's dilemma: "If we assume that each player prefers shorter sentences to longer ones, and that each gets no utility out of lowering the other player's sentence, and that there are no reputation effects from a player's decision, then the prisoner's dilemma forms a non-zero-sum game in which two players may each "cooperate" with or "defect" from (i.e., betray) the other player. In this game, as in all game theory, the only concern of each individual player ("prisoner") is maximizing his/her own payoff, without any concern for the other player's payoff. The unique equilibrium for this game is a Pareto-suboptimal solution?that is, rational choice leads the two players to both play defect even though each player's individual reward would be greater if they both played cooperatively."

So to me this means that in this situation prisoner A gains nothing for themselve by helping out prisoner B and vice versa. This then leads to both prisoners defecting (or ratting the other out) the majority of the time even though they may know if they both stay silent it is best for them both. But they each can't trust the other to follow through and stay silent so they defect to protect themselves.

So if you are a webmaster and you run a site where you are giving away hardcore content and you make 40K a year and you are happy with that amount, you will continue to do that regardless of what it may bring for other people. Someone could tell you that if you joined a group and agreed to just use softcore content you will probably make more, but you decide that you are happy as things are and don't want to risk it. So you stay the course. Your earned amount may stay the same or it may eventually go up or down. Using the prisoner theory you are defecting because you can't trust the others to do what they say they will do and you are unsure if changing your path will ultimately better you. Many other people will do the same thing for the same reason so then by having a group of individuals choosing what is best for themselves they ultimately effect what happens to the group even though they really didn't have the group's best interest in mind.

Correct?

Hmm, somehow I'd rather see a discussion about what could be done to avoid that our situation gets worse.

IMHO waiting for governmental regulations is a waste of time. There will always be some shithole countries that don't really care what you host there, so US or EU regulations don't really solve anything....

At this point I really don't know what could be done. The only solutions I see are that either there is some kind of government regulation or there is some kind of economic collapse in porn.

As far as government regulation I don't see that any time in the near future and I wouldn't want that either. We are more likely to see that glut of free hardcore stuff finally cause such a collapse of the system that is causes all kinds of chaos people to have to rethink their business model. The problem is with anything involving this industry is that it is made up of a bunch of small people who seem to have little interest in working together.

The big players could go to a system of only allowing softcore promotion stuff, but there are tons of people out there who won't care and will still do whatever they want. That said even if 40% of the hardcore stuff that is out there for free went away it would be a major help to the industry.

I agree with RogerV on that
Been saying it for years...

But i may change sooner than everyone's think.
I have seen some mainstream tube sites - which used to be 100% free - and are now going toward a $10/month model... Youtube is not profitable and still exists because Google is putting money into it. I would not be surprised that - at one point or another - mainstream tubes will go to the paid model. And porn tubes will have to follow...

The tube phenomenon is still not that big on markets like France, SPain, Italy. These traffic are still converting pretty good though - at least compared with US traffic

:2 cents:

Hi

I have a few questions:

1)Since I do not buy porn (bought a couple of mags when I was 16), can someone tell me if the tubesites have all the latest porn releases like you can find on torrent sites?

2)A similar situation in the mainstream arena that happened about 10 years ago and probably still happens today was in the music industry where people though that music download sites (peer to peer) would kill the industry and no one would by any more music CD's. Although there was some concern at the beginning it has not shut down every single HMV in London and music sales (CD's) are still good. Do you think that this will be the case with the porn industry?

3)In marketing (offline business) we usually dish out freebies like pens or diaries, glasses, free case of beer as means of promotion in order to get the customer through our door.... do you think the free selling of static porn has become just that in order to sell something else?

4)Why is there such big talk about free porn today when it has been availble for a very long time(torrents)?

5)As mentioned in the above post - is it possible that tubesites today are giving away porn to build up a customer base and then change it to a pay to view model in the future - this is not uncommon practise in the offline business that I am in. People lower prices to make the customers and then put the prices up at a later date.

Thanks

exactly except the anyone in the group of softcore only would be screwed because they would lose their traffic to the defectors.
It gets more complicated when you talking about multi person game theory
because in that case the damage is done if only 1 or more people defect.

So if 10 people agree, and only one defects all 10 suffer the damage of the defection (lower ratios_ and the one person benefits (steals traffic from the non defectors)

it increases the likelihood of all effecting even though it end up being the non optimum solution (lower ratios, no one to steal traffic from)

i don't think so, it doesn't make sense for it to be true since bandwidth cost are so much higher on tube sites

cd sales are dropping like crazy what is increasing is the digital sales of individual songs
sam the record man went out of business.
and hmv had to expand it inventory to include dvd
the record companies had to impement a complete return policy to keep stores like HMV to survive.

Do i think the porn industry will find a way to adapt to that change too, yes, the market provides.

i think porn will become a traffic source, an advertising vehicle for other products. It will be cheaper to buy a product placement plug for your product in porn video then to buy the traffic directly.

As long as you are not a moron and try and sell the plug to the wrong people (ie sex toys for women to a male targeted movie(paul markham), or mainstream clothing for women to a male surfer(Mutt))

because tubes make it easy enough for the masses to get without having to deal with geek technology. What people don't realize is that coder are making it as easy as using a vcr (my torrent recorder).

the nash equlibrium still exists when that happen. which is why i think that torrents trackers will become the first to charge a higher rate not tube sites
with torrents popularity is a virtue, not a vice which means if you establish critical mass, then you speeds will be higher then your competitors. you could create an income stream by selling faster speeds and slowing down the non payer (piece prioritization)
As long as you don't slow them down to less then the next closer competitor then you will keep your customer and keep getting paid.

Tube sites have linear viewer relationship so they will find that the nash equilibrium works against the monitization of the user base. Charge for access, and competitors have an insentive to give it away to gain your marketshare.

Hi

Thanks for the replies, but the most important point that I wanted to know about was:

Originally Posted by Badmaash
Hi

I have a few questions:

1)Since I do not buy porn (bought a couple of mags when I was 16), can someone tell me if the tubesites have all the latest porn releases like you can find on torrent sites?

i don't think so, it doesn't make sense for it to be true since bandwidth cost are so much higher on tube sites


=========


Since you have confirmed that tube sites do not have the latest porn is that not where they fail? The porn companies keep on making money on "exclusive" new content and the tube sites help the free loaders jerk off on the old stuff.

So just as an example if Tera Patrick does some crazy porn film tomorrow and her fans want to see this "new exclusive" film they will buy it. Therefore the porn company makes money and so do the affiliates until it gets to the tubesites which thankfully is not straight away. When it does hit the tube sites the porn companies have already released a new "exclusive" video so therefore they keep on making money.

I think the biggest problem this industry faces is that the majority of people operating in it today lack any kind of formal business education. Most people on GFY haven't read very much about Nash's game theory either I bet... :1orglaugh

It's basically "Monkey see, monkey do". People look at what the majority is doing and then blindly copies, figuring they will get the same results. When someone suggests a new approach to something all the sheep tells him: "That will never work, because no one is doing that at the moment."

I was very enthusiastic about trying to become a "force of change" when I first started studying this industry, now I think the best you can do is try to stick to your original ideas, keep them to yourself and let the majority fuck themselves down the line by not innovating... because telling them anything new is pretty much pointless, unless you can also show them at least 200 people, using your concept, each earning 100K a month right now... :2 cents:

the wonderful thing about building a business based on the nash equilibrium is that it aggravates the problem for everyone else. The more people who fight you the more money you make as a result of the change.

your worst case senerio is everyone agreeing with you.

Historically, this may be true. On the other hand, history has shown that Americans will consume gas like crazy until it hits $4/gal---a virtual "behavioral change threshold". Only then did demand for SUVs fall.

Perhaps the adult internet industry hasn't hit it's "behavioral change threshold" yet---where all webmasters organize and contribute $5/month to an industry organization that has real teeth and real money.

Your a wannabe webmaster. Its ok cause I'm teaching them to do things right and not put hardcore free porn on the net. I'm just giving everyone a chance to make money in adult

next generation will never pay if we dont clean up our free hardcore porn.

I can find enough free porn to jack off to now without paying just like all my friends.

if you can find it then so can surfers:2 cents:

back before tubes my friends use to ask me for passwords now they dont cause they all say its free

So true. Only when things bottom out will people then want to organize and try to work together as an industry. Until then many will continue to compete to see who can give away the most free stuff and still make money off it.

You know how many times I heard this will fuck the industry or that will fuck the industry and somehow we move forward more innovative then before the events :thumbsup

online porn means...
1- Big arousal for what I see in small size (a pic or a short clip)
2- Imagination for what else I could find inside the site
3- Instant gratification (if I like it I will pay if I can get it in 30 secs)
4- Compulsive buying if I'm thirsty (an easy way to pay helps...)
5- Surprise me constantly and I will let you rebill me!

stick to these premises and you will survive...

stop moaning, work hard

I watch asian porn on tube8

How can we be innovative whenwe give away our product for free?

Hard times ahead as porn goes soft?

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111...egoryid=1&cs=1

Economists are citing some dire portents of a recession these days, but they've missed one indicator I find especially disturbing: The porn business has suddenly gone flaccid.
The drop in porn rentals and sales is worrisome on several fronts: Till now, porn has been a recession-proof business. Further, with the country already in a dispirited mood, the fact that porn has gone limp may indicate a true plunge in consumer confidence.

DVD porn is down between 10% and 30%, depending on which nook and cranny of the business you scrutinize. Joy King, executive vice president of Wicked Pictures, and a smart analyst of the business, says the smallest dropoff is in "couples-friendly porn" -- films that embrace something of a storyline. Women account for roughly half of this audience, making their purchases in lingerie boutiques and toy stores (no, not kiddie toys).

By contrast, that sector called the "gonzo" side of the business is in serious need of fiscal Viagra. Guys with an appetite for "gonzo" are going unrequited, which may help account for the closing of many DVD emporiums like the Movie Galleries in the Midwest.

One beneficiary of these trends is online porn -- a business that's lofty in traffic but shriveled in terms of revenue. With sales declining across the landscape, employees at big corporations have a lot more time to check out the three-minute porn clips flashing across their computers. To the serious porn players, some of these clips are beyond hardcore -- they're, well, mega-gonzo.

Porn proprietors are doing what they can to meet their business challenges. Wicked Pictures, for example, is recycling its biggest hits, so customers can acquire "Space Nuts," "Manhunters" and "Flashpoint" in one svelte -- well -- package.

At the same time, other producers are cutting production costs and special effects. Since these films already are made on skimpy budgets of $50,000 to $75,000, these cuts are not welcomed by the porn filmmakers. At the same time, some of their actors won't mind completing their tasks in one take, rather than wrestling through three or four.

Still, veterans of the porn trade are edgy about the downturn. A generation ago, they recall, when authorities cracked down on "Deep Throat" and closed many of the porn palaces, the country promptly fell into a serious recession. Economists attributed this setback to the ups and downs of energy prices, but porn analysts insist other sorts of fluctuations play a more urgent role in consumer confidence.

Amen to that.

Too many adult webmasters already is part of the problem.

Fuck the noobs.

I bet if people started spamming mainstream forums, newspaper site comments and other mainstream sites with links to free tube sites I bet something gets done really fast.

Anyone selling a tube site mainstream or adult

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

Ads will pay for it all, it was tried and failed.

i am sorry but so far no one has done it properly

look at the responses from people

paul said he tried to get people to donate sex toys and lube

mutt mentioned a&f for his solo girl site

basically both said i am a world class moron who does not recognize the basic concept of product placement

1. place a product that is relevant to my content audience

sex toys for women and womens clothing have no appeal in a porn video targetted to guys.

so of course it failed. What they did was the eqivalent of selling viagra pills on scooby doo cartoons.

it did not fail because the idea would not work, it failed because the people doing it were just plain stupid about it.