Exactly! Majority of the voters know everything they know about politics from TV, which is crap information and mostly biased. Then they vote based on who they identify with most or against who they identify with least. Doesn't matter what she does, if she runs, close to half of the idiots will vote for her and will tell you all about why they did based on what they know from TV when in fact they know shit about her nor any of these people nor what goes on in Washington or any government for that matter. :2 cents:

You assume she will get support from the GOP establishment... without that support she is toast. :2 cents:

I don't assume that actually. I don't know how that works or what tricks, which party has up their sleeves and how they go about pitching a candidate, aside from what I see and hear on tv. If I was really interested I would move to Washington or carefully monitor cspan on a daily basis or something. Guess I'm not though, so I just use stuff I hear on TV that I perceive to be substance (because I hear it on tv so it must be true) to sound like I'm knowledgeable and actually know what I'm talking about to my friends and on message boards. At the end of the day, since I truly don't know shit about politics nor what goes on in Washington, I vote for the guy who I personally like the most but I tell everyone that I voted for him based on shit I heard on tv. :helpme

The party establishment ensures fund raising opportunity... without their support most candidates have a hard time raising enough money for a competitive race.

I see. Well, judging by how full of shit she sounded and how much smoke she was blowing up everyone's asses during that speech on the day before the 4th of July, something's up and it's probably big.

Here is the reality of what shes going to be doing...


If she is really going to become a national figure and use her natural charisma which most politicians would kill for, much like obama who also didnt do shit in terms political achievement, gets elected and leaves 2 years into his senate campaign, ran against no one because he got all his competition thrown off the ballot and won election without any competition. Blame Ditka for that one, and if your saying bullshit look it up. Anywho here is the most logical and smartest move she could make.

1. Shes going to have to move and take up residence in the lower 48 and become a pivotal speaking figure and playing the political game by raising money for other politicians ie Romney Tim Pawlenty or Romney JIndal in 2012 I think he is the most realistic candidate to run in 2012 at this point.

2. She would prob take a cabinet position job beefing up her street cred, and sharpening her political insider effectiveness while balancing and maintaining her authenticity which is what got her so much attention. Shes not gonna float you some BS political answer for the most part...

3. She will probably be best geared for a serious run come 2016-2020 since shes so young... She has plenty of time to become a player for years to come.

The only reason I truly think she was such a target is the left knew she was right over the target and they were very afraid of her... Why else would they attack as they did...

You can give me some line like she deserved it blah blah blah.... cut the bullshit... Its the same reason why the right went after barack... He speaks well off a prompter and has charisma which any politician anywhere in the world would die for, and I think undoubtly what really won him the election... well that and democrats great job at making it socially cool to demonize bush which made it easier... Much like the republicans did during the vietnam war against LBJ so it made it that much easier for a political swing to the other side Nixon / Ford .


But hey thats my logic of how she would play it unless the climate was right for a run in 2012 but Romney seems positioned to give Obama one hell of a fight. Remember politics is all about timing.

For sure she is going to have to leave Alaska and move somewhere where she can get easier access to the rest of the country without having huge trips. I still think she might run for the senate seat coming up in Alaska. If that person runs for governor she could run for the senate seat. If she wins that puts her in Washington a lot and she can use that as a base of operations to get out to the different states. Plus it gives her more experience on a national level.

Realistically how the 2012 election goes is all in Obama's hands. If three years from now things are good and he is popular it won't matter who runs against him because they will lose. It is very difficult to beat an incumbent president to begin with. It is nearly impossible if things are going well and he is popular.

If things aren't going well and his popularity has slipped he could be vulnerable, but that would still mean that the republicans would only have three years to get their shit together and right now their party is in shambles. Romney has money and a name, but if Obama is poised to crush whoever goes up against him he may not even run in 2012. If you run once and lose, especially if you get crushed it is almost impossible to overcome that so he might wait until 2016 as well.

That said I still see Palin as a Huckabee kind of candidate. she can do really well in the bible belt states, but when you eventually leave those states and move into the more progressive states it is hard for severe right wingers (and make no mistake that is exactly what she is) to do well. Her biggest problem is that to half the country she is folksy and they find her charming. The other half think she is annoying and dumb. It will be very hard for her to overcome that.

I think people throw the term right winger around tooo losely... definitely conservative but not a right winger... I think right winger as extreme right.

I think everyone is a fiscal conservative unless you live in a democratic state thats broke... cali, ny, illinois, hawaii, pa .... and just blow too much money on govt programs.

If obama loses on anything I see it being economy and national security. Romney would be ideal if economy is still fucked up... BTW I dont like Romney but politically he sits in the drivers seat.

Well, I have to disagree about her being a hard right winger. She is pro life. So much so that she knew early on that her baby would have down syndrome and kept it (not that other people wouldn't have done the same, but many would have chose not to keep it.) And she has said that abortion is one of the worst crimes a person can commit. She is for teaching abstinence only even when those teachings prove that they do not work. She is very pro-gun and pro-hunting. She is anti gay rights and supports a states rights to deny job benefits to same sex couples. that is pretty freaking conservative if you ask me. I don't know what else you have to believe in to be a right winger.

that said if the economy is still bad or takes a nosedive Obama will be vulnerable. If he passes a health care bill that clearly is going to bankrupt the country he will be vulnerable. If there is another terrorist attack on US soil he could be vulnerable.

As far as Romney in the drivers seat, it really depends on where you sit. I think he leads one of the now four factions of the republican party. There is the group that is led by guys like him and Giuliani who want to tone down the social conservative stuff and focus on the economy. There is a faction that is led by Palin and Huckabee who wants to ratchet up the social conservative stuff and move the part back to the far tight to regain the base. There is the faction that is led by Limbaugh which is the group that is basically just against anything that Obama and the democrats are for and there is the group that is led by Gingrich and the new head of the RNC Steele that really don't seem to have any agenda and are just waiting for the democrats to screw up. So anyone who wants to be the republican candidate and wants a shot at actually winning will have to somehow bring all these groups together.

Right now is a prime time for someone like Ron Paul to actually step up and splinter off into a different group and gain some power, but I doubt that will happen because he seems to be more talk than action.

I still think the main problem Palin has is that she accepted the offer to be the VP candidate too soon. The difference between her and Obama is that he spent the last 2-3 years preparing to run. He had answers to questions and knew the issues. She came off like she had just wiped the mud from her boots and got up on the podium. She has a bad image in a lot of people's eyes and she will have to spend a lot of her time just repairing that already tarnished image. Even in her own state her luster has worn off. There are polls that show in 2007 right after the election she had around a 90% approval rating. Now she has about a 54% rating and there are other polls showing that if the current republican Senator from that state ran for governor against Palin she would probably win. I guess Palin decided to bail before she potentially lost that race which would have destroyed her politically.

Palin isn't gonna go anywhere in 2012. The Republican party establishment will add two far right candidates in a primary and flank her; one likely to run that will bleed her big time would be Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour. He has mad skills in Iowa type campaigns. So once again the percieved center right Republican candidate would win and it will be in my opinion Indiana's Mitch Daniels. Electoral maps hardly change and Mitch Daniels would take Indiana from Obama; he makes Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Ohio, and Michigan serious toss ups even with a 50-55% approval rating should Obama have it in 2012.

she is sexy :)

Those states are broke because other states leech off them. California and Illinois get back $0.75 for every dollar in federal taxes they pay in. If they didn't have to support the Red states, they wouldn't be broke.

http://www.taxfoundation.org/files/ftsbs-20060316.pdf

You wanna place a wager on that Home Skillet?

Palin has ZERO charisma, no idea what makes you think that. Being a MILF doesn't give you charisma. Most real republicans hate her and find her to be absolutely stupid.

They thought she would draw in the Hillary craze and it backfired on them big time. She isn't a republican, she is right winger - a minority.

Well, finally. Good riddance.

She is definately a right winger... no doubt about that... but I don't agree that she doesn't have charisma... I would be willing to bet that if I polled the white residents in my neighborhood here in NC that she would have 75%+ positive response. These idiots view her as one of them... they think she is taking on the establishment... she really does have that "Maverick" persona going for her with them. It's sickening to me because I think she is a fucking idiot (and I think she is ugly on top of it). The other part is that she is very popular with evangelicals. I don't think she has a hair of a chance to win any election in the near term... but people are so fucking stupid and have such short memories that they will probably lend her credence in the future.

"You have to admit, she is rather mannish."

.

Oh them dirty ass evangs will follow anyone they think can talk to Jesus, it's scary. During the 2nd Bush election I was shocked at what some of them would say. "He can speak to the holy spirit, Bush is the divine light of god."

Crazy ass evangelicals... if it isn't her it's going to be some other serious nut case. :/


Our DJ here painted his car, it was called the Palin Mobile, trying to build support for Palin. Right wing radio station of course and his hype support didn't help at all. Republicans here hated here.. male and female would call in and just bash her, said they wouldn't vote at all and some even said they were going to vote for Obama.... all because of her.

If the Republicans can get someone clean, honest, and a real conservative in the door. The dems in 2012 will be in for a serious hurt, even if Obama does well.