haha, any dealer that honestly thought they would get paid in full by the fed deserves to get burned... Same story different bullshit program.

Real health care reform is too big to be easy. It will take years to work out the kinks even if a great reform bill is passed, but that is no excuse to do nothing. If they were ever to run another cash for clunkers program some day in the future, it is quite probable that it would run smoother.

Having had a good chance to state our opinions it still comes down to the question posed by the poster I'm quoting here.

The problem is this, the bill is written to go mostly in effect in what Obama hopes is his second administration, 2013. They did this for two in your face obvious reasons; they know that employers will drop their plans and it will be a lot more then just 46 million that will need to be insured and the bill really is a single payer bill, secondly it will require a middle class tax increase and Obama is hoping to put this off to his second term. Obama knows if he breaks the pledge of no new taxes he's done for and so the bill was written in this way.

Additionally two election cycles will take place that will most likely lead to a Senate that is more closely divided and will not have a Democrat cloture super majority and this will happen before people get government insurance. Funding will by 2013 be able to get blocked and the health appropriations won't get funded and/or definitely not fully funded. Republicans can't risk a government shut down some are thinking, well, it wouldn't be an entire government shut down it would be just one appropriations bill.

There's no price to Republicans in the next two cycles either and your if "it goes well or bad" calculus doesn't apply much in the next two cycles. The next two election cycles will be about deficits and government growth that are unsustainable. Also if reconciliation is used in the Senate it's ten years time limited so depending on funding in the future and what party controls what it will perhaps expire and we spent a trillion bucks for nothing.

As to people talking about the VA and Medicare... It doesn't fully fund and is already unsustainable and Medicare is one reason why we have high premiums today because doctors and hospitals charge 135% to those with insurance while Medicare pays 85%, so Medicare really isn't some government program to use as a point in favor of health care. Of course seniors are happy with it, they aren't paying the doctors a dime. Their happiness with Medicare doesn't change the fact Medicare requires serious reform, so my opinion is this lets first reform Medicare and expect our government to prove first it can run that slice of the health care industry in the black and not the red before we bankrupt our country even more.

Speaking of Medicare reform; reform isn't accounting gimmicks to say we're saving billions of dollars only to pass some unfunded mandate and accounting trick onto the states where they will undoubtedly be forced to raise taxes.

Medicare reform will also require end of life panels of some kind to make decisions as to whether the government should really allow a 90 year old to lay in a bed in a nursing home on life support for five more years. Yes, there's cases where this conservative and speaking for me only, wants to kill Granny because we can't bring down health care costs when most of our dollars in Medicare are being spent in the final two months of an old fart's life. Republicans played that end of life stuff for political points and it worked but the fact is we have to start making such decisions if the bill is to do what they claim it will do -- and that is bring down costs.

Well, at this point there are as many as 5 different bills floating around so I think it might be a little premature to say anything definite about any of them. As for it not taking effect/getting funded until 2013, that, to me is a pretty big risk for Obama if true. He has been pounding away that we need it now. He said he needed before they went on summer break, now it is by the end of the year. It doesn't make much sense politically to hurry up and pass something then tell people, "Oh, you don't get it for three more years." But then I won't be too surprised if that is how is actually ends up working out. I just think if he does it that way it could bite him in the ass.

My thought that if it goes well it could crush the republicans could take place in two election cycles. Chances are they will get a few seats back in both houses in the next election. Then in 2012 it depends. If there is health care and it looks like it is a good bill and the republicans did nothing to help it they could be hurt badly by it. Even if it doesn't take effect until 2013 the bill will be published and out there and it can be heavily looked over. Not too mention we will have a little more clear idea where the economy stands.

As for it being a single payer bill, I don't think that is going to happen. There are a lot of democrats in the last few days that have come out against that and Obama, while still in love with that idea, is no longer married to it. I think the final bill will basically be changes to laws that will force insurance companies to cover preexisting conditions and it will be funding to help people on lower incomes pay for insurance.

You bite your tongue.....you!:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

I initially replied to you Kane because you're an intelligent guy and you post good opinions. You're surprised it's 2013 because you're intelligent to see what a huge risk that is and why a fiscal conservative like myself would be so happy to have two elections about deficits, higher taxes, and government growth. However this is a bureaucratic nightmare to set up and it will take at least that long to implement (formulate regulations, hire, etc., etc.,) and in 2010 Democrats can't afford to go to the polls with a poorly implemented program. I agree with you about 2012 and it can't be predicted but I will say this Democrats have more Senate seats up in 2012 and are unlikely to get back a super majority cloture proof Senate again. That makes it in my opinion 60/40 that if this bill passes it'll never get funded anyway and the Democrat sank their majority at least in the House by 2012 on big dreams when they first should have proved themselves by reforming Medicare.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezr...rm_begins.html

Another reason implementation of the bill has to stay in 2013 is they need to keep the CBO scores down with some accounting tricks. They have to do it this way or the Senate parliamentarian will rule against it in reconciliation if they can't point to some kind of scoring that makes the bill deficit neutral and within the Byrd rule's regulations for reconciliation. Google health bill and 2013 because it really is going to be implemented in Quarter 1 of 2013.

And again it has to be in 2013 because he has to raise taxes on the middle class. That makes three election cycles that would be favorable to Republicans and it means the Democrats have to win the White House in 2012 for this bill to ever get implemented too.

Not directed to you Kane but to other people that were so happy to hear Obama is gonna get tough and go it alone... It means nothing if you factor in how our system of government actually works. Do the odds increase if he goes it alone... yes! Does it mean the bill will ever get implemented. No! It just means it's up in the air for the next two cycles.

I kind of feel like if he gets a bill passed, regardless of when it actually ends up getting implemented (you make a great point about it being a bureaucratic nightmare) that alone might be enough to propel Obama to a win in 2012. Especially if he can keep any bad news that is likely to accompany the bill in the closet. If the bill is decent (or appears to be) and the economy is looking good it won't matter who the Republicans run against him, they will lose. The passage of a decent bill could also hold off any big republican moves in the house and senate at least until 2012. The democrats will most likely still lose seats. They won in areas they don't normally win in over the last 4 years and that is unlikely to keep happening. 2012 could be a different story. if the economy is still not doing well it will hurt the democrats (that is, if the republicans can get their shit together, but in the small areas that representative elections take place the overall problems that the republican party has matter a whole lot less than they do for Senate and Presidential elections).

If the economy is doing well and they pass a health care bill that at least appears to be pretty good, I think it will be difficult for the republicans to make any big moves until at least 2014. There is the census and redistricting next year that will hurt them in some areas and if the stimulus and health care turn out to at least look good they will be hard pressed to defend themselves. You know every democrat up for election will remind the voters every day that the republicans did nothing but stand by and disagree.

I too am a fiscal conservative and I have sick feeling this health care bill is going to be bloated, ugly and expensive. But I'm glad to see someone trying to fix things. I think health care will eventually bankrupt this country one way or the other. Either by means of a huge, bloated government program or by means of nothing happening and it just gets more and more expensive and more and more people lose insurance or get denied treatment by their insurance. I guess I am pretty pessimistic about it all.

That said, I think if Obama can pass a bill and the economy turns around some he has a decent chance of actually getting it funded. A good economy and reasonable health care bill will really help the democrats hold onto power for a little while longer.