$1 trillion bailout of Fannie and Freddie by US taxpayer ?
 

I wouldnt be really surprise if it will happen, there is no such thing as housing recovery in 2008 or 2009. So US webmaster better prepare your taxpockets sometimes next year....

from following article:
"The doomsday scenario could cost taxpayers more than $1 trillion, says the S&P report. The report went so far as to say that a government bailout of Fannie or Freddie could force the agency to lower its rating on the creditworthiness of the United States"

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/09/news...ion=2008070914

The Fannie and Freddie doomsday scenario
It's time to wonder what would happen if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac failed.
By Katie Benner, writer-reporter
Last Updated: July 9, 2008: 2:05 PM EDT

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Here's a scary, and relevant, question to ponder as the housing market continues to slide: What would it take for the government to step in and help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and how would a rescue affect you, the taxpayer?

A Lehman analyst's note on Monday sent shares of both companies plunging. Though they've recovered some, the fall, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's downbeat outlook for housing issued Tuesday, is forcing investors to consider what would happen if a bailout is needed.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government sponsored enterprises that help the mortgage market function by purchasing pools of loans and packaging them into securities. If one or both couldn't function, the result would be chaos.

At the end of last year, Fannie alone had packaged and guaranteed about $2.8 trillion worth of mortgages, approximately 23% of all outstanding US mortgage debt. And these securities are highly rated and sold to investors all over the world.

"If Fannie or Freddie failed, it would be far worse than the fall of [investment bank] Bear Stearns," says Sean Egan, head of credit ratings firm Egan Jones. "It could throw the economy into depression or something close to it."

Clearly, investors remain concerned. Credit default swaps - a kind of insurance against the possibility of Fannie (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500) defaulting on their corporate bonds, are at their most expensive levels in 14 weeks; both companies are expected to report steep losses for the second quarter; and their main business, mortgage securitization, is under pressure as home price values decline and foreclosure numbers rise.

"The major issue is that these are very leveraged financial institutions, leveraged much more than any other bank, and they have lots of mortgage assets. As real estate values decline every day, the value of [the mortgages that it bundles, guarantees, and sells] are called into question," says Dalton Investments co-founder Steve Persky, who has been focused on distressed mortgage assets.

The possibility of government aid looms because it's hard to see how the private market can help the companies. Their stock market values have dropped so low that it would be difficult for them to raise money. For example, Egan estimates that Freddie alone will need to raise $7 billion over the next two quarters due to writedowns and losses. But the company's market capitalization - the number of outstanding shares times the share price stands at $8.7 billion.

"An investment banker would be hard pressed to raise an amount of money nearly equal to the value of the entire company," Egan says.

What's more, both companies have already raised a total of $13 billion by issuing preferred stock at the end of 2007; and they reduced their dividend payments to conserve cash.

The disaster scenarios
The Federal Reserve and the Treasury have taken great pains to point out that the government is not obligated to bail out either Fannie or Freddie if they face insolvency. It's debatable where the legal obligations lie, but as a practical matter, the government can't let these institutions fail because they are being counted up on to help fix the mortgage mess. If Fannie and Freddie were unable to buy and back loans, banks would stop originating them and the pool of homebuyers would shrink, causing home prices to fall even further.

"If the government believes the companies serve an essential role in the market, which they do, they cannot let them fail," says Joseph Mason, an economics professor with the University of Louisiana who focuses on the mortgage markets.

So what would force the Treasury and Fed to step in?

Fannie and Freddie are among the most highly-leveraged companies around, meaning the amount of capital they have on hand is nowhere close to the level of assets they control.

Fannie and Freddie must constantly borrow money in order to operate; if for any reason borrowing costs rose sharply they would not be able to make good on their guarantees or even fund their day to day operations. This is when the government would feel intense pressure to step in and, at the very least, pay contracts in a timely manner.

In an April report, Standard & Poor's said an Armageddon scenario whereby Fannie and Freddie are insolvent is unlikely, but that the mere possibility of failure at either is a greater threat to the economy than the actual collapse of any investment bank.

The bailout scenarios
So what might it look like if the government had to lend a hand? Outright nationalization is an unlikely option given that neither the current administration nor the presidential candidates could afford to support such a move in an election year.

More likely, the Treasury Department or the Federal Reserve would come in and provide a liquidity backstop, in the form of a loan or guarantee to bondholders that they will be paid. Fannie and Freddie could even do a preferred stock deal with the government, much like the deal forged by Citigroup with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, says Egan.

That would allow give officials the ability to argue that they weren't bailing out the companies, but rather making an investment that would pay off in the long run.

Mason has a diffferent twist on a possible intervention. If either were to face insolvency, he says the government should purchase a large voting block of equity in the institution and use that as a tool to eliminate any dividends, replace officers and manage the firms back to solvency.

"But [a rescue] would be a political situation, so it would be messy," says Mason. "Fannie and Freddie would fight against having officers replaced. They would want to keep the dividend."

The doomsday scenario could cost taxpayers more than $1 trillion, says the S&P report. The report went so far as to say that a government bailout of Fannie or Freddie could force the agency to lower its rating on the creditworthiness of the United States

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/09/news...ion=2008070914

U.S. Weighs Takeover of Two Mortgage Giants

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/11/bu...hp&oref=slogin

"One plan being talked about would involve the GSEs being placed into a conservatorship and the mortgage losses of the companies would be paid by US taxpayers "

Add that to the tab. Not shocking at all.

And it adds to hypocrisy that is sometimes this country. There are people in some areas of the country that were stupid and got into a VAR or interest only mortgage when they shouldn't have and now their payments are going way up and they can't pay while the value of their houses has fallen dramatically and they can't sell. Some are choosing to do what they call "buy and bail." This is where you declare that you are going to rent your house out and you then buy a new house in the same area (often a comparable house for half as much since the values have crumbled) then you never rent the old house (because you never would be able to) and you walk away from it and let them foreclose. This gets you a new place at a lower payment and you get out from under the old place. The mortgage companies are jumping to put an end to this saying that if people made bad decisions in buying the houses they need to deal with it and take responsibility. However when a company makes bad decisions and either gives out mortgages to people who should never have them or they buy up a ton of high risk mortgages, now they want a government bailout.

Individuals should take responsibility for their actions.
Companies should get a sweet handout.

I'll tell you, if this doesn't turn around soon, this recession, is going to become the great depression.

People are leaving thier homes, and prices keep droping. Here in Miami, you have condos that sold for $588K being offered for $140 to $100K. You have homes that were purchased in 2005 for $275k now worth $160K, and this is an area where you can find work.

Areas like Fort Myers are ghosts towns, you cannot sell a home. People aren't buying.

The great depression (deflationary) is exactly outcome which was predicted by lot of people (eg. roubini, mish, etc.) who were and are 100% right on the money with whole current crises.

Thats the exact reason this is the time to start. People will sell for next to nothing, and if you have the cash, or most of it, the lenders will give the rest becuase you have enough to be able to pay the rest.

If you can do 50% down, this is the time to grab some investments.

and its not a great surprise to see oil hitting all time highs when there is a talk about big bailout. Due your goverment and FED, oil is trading as some kind of anti-USD currency. FNM and FRE 50% down in todays premarket. I am going to swim in cash today with my put options.

I doubt it, the prices have not reached the buttom yet, it's time to buy gold now, almost too late for the current spike, gold is up about 40 points since yesterday :2 cents:

Well you certainly have that right but at the same time this level of distress in the economy is not a good thing. Take stock in what you had and I would certainly recommend a very current solvent position with your capital.

this is a must watch:

Ron Paul discloses housing bailout bill's money and power grab

In a videotaped statement Wednesday, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, disclosed some shocking details of the housing bailout legislation being rushed through Congress:

-- The two troubled federal mortgage agencies, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, will be given unlimited access to the U.S. Treasury without requiring any further approval from Congress.

-- The U.S. national debt ceiling will be raised by $800 billion, which suggests that the bailout is expected to cost a lot more than the country is being told.

-- All credit card transactions will have to be reported to the Internal Revenue Service, as if the country isn't under enough government surveillance already.

You can watch Paul's statement at GoldSeek here:

http://news.goldseek.com/RonPaul/1216879620.php

Ya but hes a kook... a kook that news stations are begging him to give interviews and these news stations are now admitting he was 100% right about the problems that are happening now. To bad the voting mass was not listening to him when he was running.

The funny part is he has been predicting this for a very very long time.

get out of dodge

and on housing bill, another wallstreet bailout :



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...062401804.html

"Some Republicans, however, called the program a bailout. Rep. Spencer Bachus of Alabama, the top GOP member of the House Financial Services Committee, said the program would "have the effect of bailing out lenders and investors seeking to offload their riskiest loans on an FHA already close to being overwhelmed by the larger role it is being asked to play in the mortgage market"


The United States is now assigning its own citizens accountable for the costly mistakes of the priviledged few

if we were true capitalists we would let em all fail and the market would correct itself, all the problems we have is because the government cronies in bed with the privately owned thieves at the Fed Reserve.. I bet 90% of the people think the fed reserve is a government agency lol. (it's not)

Since at least the 70s. But if you are continually predicting a financial crisis how much credit can you choose when one finally comes along?

Paul named one of his kids Rand BTW. Now THAT is dedication to "the cause"

We're all going to pay for this through inflation tax

I dont like that i'm going to be paying to help a bank.

I rather pay to help the people who can't afford their homes, etc.

Yah they are idiots for taking out mortgages, etc. They can't afford.. But... they need help they have family's and kids to support...

I'm pretty sick of how businesses are soo protected but the common person has no protection..

I can be fired today and not be able to pay my bills.. but If I wanna quit today I have to give them 2 weeks notice.. wtf is that shit..

Cliff notes.

ironically, i dont think prices of homes in LA have dropped that much as they have elsewhere. right now its really difficult to get a mortgage (at least that i have tried) unless you have excellent credit + 20% down

And most people think its the Reps that want to bail out the banks... Thank you Dodd!

there has been a couple since the 70s. and like Paul has said the patches they put on them when they happened only prolonged the real collapse.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121677050160675397.html

"Yet as studies have shown, about half of the implicit taxpayer subsidy for Fan and Fred is pocketed by shareholders and management. According to the Federal Reserve, the half that goes to homeowners adds up to a mere seven basis points on mortgages. In return for this, Fannie was able to pay no fewer than 21 of its executives more than $1 million in 2002, and in 2003 Mr. Raines pocketed more than $20 million. Fannie's left-wing defenders are underwriters of crony capitalism, not affordable housing

Sucks, I say let them die out and sell the goods off to other companies that can better manage it.

We aren't in a recession, at all people, and that's a pure all out fact.

The housing market? The houses around here still sell within 3 months. And I'm buying a new house. I love that the market has slowed down, I hope it dies more. Even after 5 years, houses are still worth 1/3 more, and even more over 10 years. Where is the slow down?

We are being told this is bad, we are being lied to, tricked by shareholders wanting to make more millions. We are still on a high and it has to come down at some point. Even though it has dropped, it still hasn't dropped to bad, just sucks - in some areas.

Brought to you by the same dipshits that want to run socialized health care,,,

Brought to you by the same Gov, and president after president, that have deregulated industries which ended up totally screwing Americans over.

Throw it on the card.
Then file bankruptcy.
:winkwink:

Will next year be better or worse ?

I believe it was a guy from BOFA, who said that we are not at the bottom, just yet.

I think you will see the foreclosures slow down. The north east will continue to take a drop, in every area. While the west and south west, stable out, and many areas will continue to grow as they are now. Naturally the rental market should increase, even more so since 40% of the foreclosures are on property like apartment complexes.

Buying a house, will continue to get harder, not really harder just back to where it was before it got so easy. Good credit, 20% down, low dept ratio, market value is right, you will get the loan.

I also think the natural disaster issues we have had the last few years has had several different kinds of impacts on our eco and housing/bank issue. We are talking millions and millions of people, I wonder how much money has been displaced/lost. It has even prob helped some areas, I have no idea how to find this data.

We aren't at the bottom yet for getting some killer deals and some areas haven't reached the top yet for selling at great profits. Add in foreclosures, and some people stand to make a killing from what some are calling a falling market.

damn that could get messy...

no matter what you do with your US capital right now you are screwed..
put it in the bank and get 3-4% (with internal inflation at 5%, it is a loss) not to mention the devaluation of the dollar as a instrument of value.
it would not be overkill to say one dollar today is only apprx worth 75% of what is was worth a few years ago, not inflation but devaluation..look at gold, look at other currencies.. it is not because those instruments of value are up, it is the dollar going down..
this could lead to the demise of the dollar..
what should we call the next currency? the N$ (the new dollar)

my take on fannie and mac
the us have always had a escewed way of doint business, on one end it is all market forces, but then you have institutions like fannie and mac which when designed looked like perfect solution for minor problems, and disasterous when the "not supposed to be possible" happens..
the bailout MUST include a complete re-design of fannie/mac in a way to make these institutions obsolete within a few years or i say let them both go down and let normal economic forces take over.

20% more down and then will be a great time to buy some real estate as investment. Even right now its below cheap for Europeans, but I think the bottom isn't here yet.

Less than 40% of its previous worth.

Don't forget about all the morons making $30k to $40k a year then go out and buy a car that cost $30k. It's typically the same morons who bought houses with ARM's.

and another great article - who is to blame?

http://online.wsj.com/article_print/...885068955.html
Fannie and Freddie's Enablers
July 21, 2008; Page A12
You'll love this one. In the strange accountability of Washington, the same folks who put taxpayers on the hook for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now demanding ransom to let taxpayers bail them out. It's as if Andy Fastow insisted that Enron shareholders pay his fines after his fraud cost them their life savings.

"I don't know how in good conscience you come up here and ask me to give unlimited lines of credit" to Treasury for Fannie and Freddie without giving Democrats something in return, Senate Banking Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) told the Journal last week. Come again? This is the same Chris Dodd who long resisted tougher regulation while more recently handing Fan and Fred even more room to expand their risk-taking.


At a February hearing, he derided critics who he said were "repeatedly raising alarm bells about the risks Fannie and Freddie pose to the financial system." You may also remember Mr. Dodd as the fellow who got a sweetheart mortgage from former Countrywide Financial CEO Angelo Mozilo, who was thick as thieves with Fannie Mae.

* * *
In any other business, Mr. Dodd would be begging forgiveness. But in Washington he now wants the Bush Administration to bow to his political wishes in return for protecting the financial system from the risks that Mr. Dodd long claimed Fan and Fred didn't pose. His demands include nearly $4 billion in Community Development Block Grants that are a payoff to liberal interest groups. He also wants an "affordable housing trust fund" for more such largesse that could take as much as a $1 billion a year out of Fan and Fred even as they struggle to stay solvent.


FANNIE MAYHEM: A HISTORY


Click here1 for a compendium of our recent Fannie and Freddie coverage.Meanwhile, another leading cause of this fiasco, House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, has his own demands. He wants to increase the size of the loans Fannie and Freddie can purchase and package as mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), which would allow them to grow market share. Earlier this year he pushed for, and got, a temporary increase in the so-called conforming loan limit to $729,250, allowing Fan and Fred to buy and securitize jumbo loans. Now he wants to make that increase permanent.

Behind the scenes, Mr. Frank is also demanding that the new, more powerful regulator for Fan and Fred not get up and running until next year, though the companies are in trouble right now. Like the management of Fan and Fred, he's assuming an Obama Administration will go easier on the mortgage giants than will the Bush Treasury.

We should add that Republicans aren't much better. A few in the Senate -- Richard Shelby, Elizabeth Dole, John Sununu, Mel Martinez -- fought hard to protect taxpayers going back years. But most of the House GOP has long been in Fannie's back pocket. On May 22, 2007, it was Texas Republican Randy Neugebauer who sponsored an amendment to water down systemic risk protections for Fan and Fred. It passed 383 to 36, with 162 Republicans voting with the companies. Now these same Republicans claim to be appalled by this taxpayer rescue. What a spectacle.

The real priority ought to be protecting taxpayers in return for bailing out these vehicles of Capitol Hill privilege. Taxpayers have already coughed up once, in the form of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's explicit pledge last week to save the companies and let them tap the Federal Reserve's discount window. Now taxpayers are being asked to pay again, via legislation allowing the government to increase its credit line to the companies and to inject capital if needed to save them from failure.

For all of that, taxpayers have so far received nothing -- no stock warrants, no discipline for the management or shareholders of Fan and Fred, no guarantee that the companies won't pocket this bailout and emerge even more powerful down the road. At least Bear Stearns went out of business when it had to be saved by Uncle Sam.

Instead, taxpayers are being asked to trust that a regulator will do the right thing and impose some discipline on the companies after Mr. Paulson's rescue bill passes. But at the same time, Mr. Paulson is saying that the goal is to preserve Fannie and Freddie "in their current form." That sounds a lot like a get-out-of-bailout-free card.

Perhaps this is part of Mr. Paulson's strategy to get the legislation passed without Fan and Fred opposing it. And in its current form the bill would give a new regulator the power to fire managers and put the companies into receivership in certain circumstances. At a minimum, however, the regulator should be given an explicit command to run down their portfolios of MBSs that have made them such risky monsters. And as the credit markets calm down, the regulator needs to limit their business so private-label mortgage securitization takes a greater role in the market and less risk is concentrated in two giant firms. Mr. Paulson should also support Senator Jim DeMint's proposal to bar the companies from the lobbying and campaign contributions that have allowed them to buy political immunity all these years.

* * *
If Mr. Paulson can't get a regulator who can rein in these two -- and put them into receivership if they require taxpayer money -- he should put the political blame squarely on Fannie and Freddie's enablers in Congress.

They made this mess by creating these beasts that combine private profit with public risk. And they made the mess worse by fighting, over many years and despite accounting fraud, any limits on the ability of the companies to grow with taxpayer subsidies. Mr. Dodd and Congress owe Americans an apology, not more ransom demands.

See all of today's editorials and op-eds, plus video

It's the republican way. We can't raise taxes on wealthy people or on capital gains or corporate dividends because that's "socialist"

We can't socialize the profits, but we sure as hell can socialize the losses can't we?

Could it be a more perfect world for the uber wealthy? They only pay 15% in taxes on all of their profits but when they screw up and lose money, the government makes them whole again.

Ron Paul 2012

Pattern is this.

Oil Industry was deregulated and so was the Mortgage industry all approved by Bush and his Financial advisor who is running around right now with McCain.

What I am trying to figure out is all that money these guys made is supposedly bang gone yet there Officers got 7 figure pay checks on a regular basis along with hundreds of thousands in Stock if not millions. Now albeit the stock is not shit right now however we bail the institution back up we essentially reward there officers and they will keep making 7 figure checks yearly.

Kinda fucked...

The main thing that killed the Subprime loan market was not job losses, not people failing to make a house payment but what knocked them out was a maturing loan that was a scam to begin with. This whole fucking thing is outrageous.

Then them scamming Pencil dicks want the typical American to pay them for scamming them all in the first place.

People should be buying shot guns and rioting over this shit. THe fucking nerve telling us to pay for thier fuck up...