crockett

Where do you think China will be in 50 years? Seems to be the common idea that many believe China will eventually over take the US as the worlds leading super power. I used to think this was a real possibility but I recently saw a talk, that brought up quite a few key points that showed China's economy might not last another 50 years and certainly will stop growing well before then.

Couple of the key points..

1) just like the US and our baby boomers, China in about 30 years will have a enormous elderly population to take care of with a declining amount of workers.

2) right now you are looking at a generation of men that have no woman to marry. They estimate only 1 out of 2 men can find a wife now and over the next few years it will get even worse. They claim it might soon be as much as 1 out of 6 will have a mate. They were estimating this alone would eventually reduce China population by 1/3. This in its self will lead to a lot of angry men and perhaps a unstable country.

3) despite all the factories in China and all their exports most of those exports are products for companies not with-in China. Meaning China doesn't really see much of the profits when a company like apple has a Chinese factory assemble a iPad.

4) compounding number 3, is China is not investing in producing new tech nor are their companies, this means they can't grow their economy by creating new markets, their economy only works because they are essentially low income workers for the rest of the world.. Ask Mexico how that worked for them..

5) last but not least China has a massive housing bubble that is being propped up by the govt. Eventually it's going to crash, because they have built entire cities that sit empty, because they keep building high price housing that the workers can't afford.

So do you think they will crash and burn, or make it through these issues and eventually become the leading world power?

brassmonkey

we will be in the after life who cares

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DWB

A lot can change in 50 years. There is a good chance most of the world won't be able to feed itself in 50 years, especially China who is already teetering on that. They have to import insane amounts of food already because they can't grow enough to feed their own people.

Vendzilla

I'll let you know when I get back, going there in a few months

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Magnetron

They'll be living underground to escape the smog.

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$5 submissions

I wouldn't get too excited about China. After all, the US got its panties wet about Japan eating its lunch back in the 80s. Now, the Japanese economy is still trying to get out of a deflation hole. China has SERIOUS issues. Need proof? Look at the latest resolutions by CP. Talk about a tall order!

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mineistaken

You are very wrong on number 4. They are investing A LOT into those. Not only that but they are taking over lots of know hows from western tech companies, one of the many examples high speed trains, technology transfer from Siemens. Soon they will know and produce almost anything at the same level as the west.
Judging on how wrong you are on this I suspect that your other pointers could be very questionable as well.

adultchatpay

China sucks big time!

Captain Kawaii

China is on the brink of disaster. They are having severe; political issues, people issues, economic issues, pollution issues. Many in Asia believe China will break into at least 3 parts soon.

crockett

You are confusing stealing technology or borrowing it, to actually creating it. China is not creating new inventive things they are copying them and ignoring the patents that protect the items. That will only get them so far..

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mineistaken

I am not confusing anything. I was talking about creating AND acquiring it. That example was from acquiring category. So on top of huge R&D spending they also acquires current technology from worldwide technology leaders in their fields (like in the example o high speed trains).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ent_spen ding - China is number 2 already with 1.97% of its budget (one of the biggest numbers in the whole world).
On top of that they plan to spend even more in the future:
http://forumblog.org/2012/12/the-wak...se-innovation/

You probably get your "facts" from biased western media which still tries to portrait it as "stealing technology and cheap unskilled labor" country which is being less and less true.
You can not be more wrong on that point number 4 in your list. And again, that makes me wonder about the validity of other points you made there..

Captain Kawaii

China is also attempting to trademark other companies trademarks in foreign countries.
Watch an interesting discussion on NHK between a Chinese rep and a Japanese rep.
I think Yamaha or Kawasaki ran into this some years ago. Chinese are un-fucking believable.

Chinese guy was basically, "everyone does this when they are building their country."

Captain Kawaii

China is some straight up gangsta bullshit.... Crockett is correct in that it is catching up with them now. This quarter, in Tokyo, the most popular business seminar is how to extricate your company from China while minimizing loss due to physical asset, copyright and trademark thefts.

https://www.google.com/#q=china%20tr...gement%20cases

oppoten

Hopefully fending off this mob

_Richard_

haha clever

bronco67

China looks good on paper -- but what does it tell you when a country builds cities that no one can afford to live in?

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love the food

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Minte

I had a recent encounter with a factory in China regarding the trademarks on one of the products we manufacture. I received notification from the company there that they were going to use the name of my company for a AAAAA.ca domain.

The man signed his name to the letter. I wrote him back that I was going to register..his_name_is _a thief.com. I haven't heard back from him yet.

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sandman!

it will be interesting for sure

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Captain Kawaii

Hahaha. fuck, man. The program I watched on NHK said at the moment, the only way to combat China's massive trademark infringement plan is to register your trademark in every country in the world... I think you found a nice alternative.

jscott

I meet Chinese people all the time, and from what I notice, especially from the younger more educated and open-minded of them, they are so nice, friendly, smart, etc, really sad and sucks to know that USA/China relations are so fucked, actually, China/theworld relations so fucked.

Angelo22

Good for us in adult I guess.

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BaliPimp

I hate working with chinese companies. I have done business with over 20 different companies and the overall feeling I get is they are so focused on getting business they can not focus on keeping it. I know my sample size is small but after getting burned so many times it leaves a bad taste.

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Joshua G

K. Start listing things china is inventing that will create new markets.

The only thing china invents is lead paint in toys, toxic chemicals in drywall, 10 cent/hour child labor, smog you can cut with a knife, houses that collapse in a quake, restaurants with no sanitary standards at all.

china is inventing...1880 america.

Joshua G

The Secret of Our Sauce

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

Published: March 7, 2004

BANGALORE, India

Yamini Narayanan is an Indian-born 35-year-old with a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Oklahoma. After graduation, she worked for a U.S. computer company in Virginia and recently moved back to Bangalore with her husband to be closer to family. When I asked her how she felt about the outsourcing of jobs from her adopted country, America, to her native country, India, she responded with a revealing story:

"I just read about a guy in America who lost his job to India and he made a T-shirt that said, `I lost my job to India and all I got was this [lousy] T-shirt.' And he made all kinds of money." Only in America, she said, shaking her head, would someone figure out how to profit from his own unemployment. And that, she insisted, was the reason America need not fear outsourcing to India: America is so much more innovative a place than any other country.

There is a reason the "next big thing" almost always comes out of America, said Mrs. Narayanan. When she and her husband came back to live in Bangalore and enrolled their son in a good private school, he found himself totally stifled because of the emphasis on rote learning ? rather than the independent thinking he was exposed to in his U.S. school. They had to take him out and look for another, more avant-garde private school. "America allows you to explore your mind," she said. The whole concept of outsourcing was actually invented in America, added her husband, Sean, because no one else figured it out.

The Narayanans are worth listening to at this time of rising insecurity over white-collar job losses to India. America is the greatest engine of innovation that has ever existed, and it can't be duplicated anytime soon, because it is the product of a multitude of factors: extreme freedom of thought, an emphasis on independent thinking, a steady immigration of new minds, a risk-taking culture with no stigma attached to trying and failing, a noncorrupt bureaucracy, and financial markets and a venture capital system that are unrivaled at taking new ideas and turning them into global products.

"You have this whole ecosystem [that constitutes] a unique crucible for innovation," said Nandan Nilekani, the C.E.O. of Infosys, India's I.B.M. "I was in Europe the other day and they were commiserating about the 400,000 [European] knowledge workers who have gone to live in the U.S. because of the innovative environment there. The whole process where people get an idea and put together a team, raise the capital, create a product and mainstream it ? that can only be done in the U.S. It can't be done sitting in India. The Indian part of the equation [is to help] these innovative [U.S.] companies bring their products to the market quicker, cheaper and better, which increases the innovative cycle there. It is a complimentarity we need to enhance."

That is so right. As Robert Hof, a tech writer for Business Week, noted, U.S. tech workers "must keep creating leading edge technologies that make their companies more productive ? especially innovations that spark entirely new markets." The same tech innovations that produced outsourcing, he noted, also produced eBay, Amazon.com, Google and thousands of new jobs along with them.

This is America's real edge. Sure Bangalore has a lot of engineering schools, but the local government is rife with corruption; half the city has no sidewalks; there are constant electricity blackouts; the rivers are choked with pollution; the public school system is dysfunctional; beggars dart in and out of the traffic, which is in constant gridlock; and the whole infrastructure is falling apart. The big high-tech firms here reside on beautiful, walled campuses, because they maintain their own water, electricity and communications systems. They thrive by defying their political-economic environment, not by emerging from it.

What would Indian techies give for just one day of America's rule of law; its dependable, regulated financial markets; its efficient, noncorrupt bureaucracy; and its best public schools and universities? They'd give a lot.

These institutions, which nurture innovation, are our real crown jewels that must be protected ? not the 1 percent of jobs that might be outsourced. But it is precisely these crown jewels that can be squandered if we become lazy, or engage in mindless protectionism, or persist in radical tax cutting that can only erode the strength and quality of our government and educational institutions.

Our competitors know the secret of our sauce. But do we?

kane

To me it all depends on how well China does at building a solid middle class.

The prosperity of the US was built on having a strong middle class. Those people had jobs, houses, were happy with their lives and had disposable income. Our middle class is shrinking and it is hurting us. If China can build and maintain a strong middle class in 50 years they could be the new world super power. However, 50 years is a long time. They could also collapse and end up being more like India.

Phoenix

i love China, i go about 4-5 times a year. I have an office there.
Chinese people are generally hard working.
However, they are not totally united. People in one province don't understand or can't even speak to people in another. Not everyone speaks Mandarin.
There is dissent in the ranks so to speak.
That being said, China is ruled with an iron fist, and while we may not understand them. I really believe they are trying hard to do the right thing. IT will just take time to adjust and grow into the powerhouse they should be.

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Captain Kawaii

What is the people in the streets attitude towards Uighars? I believe they should be autonomous. We know how Beijing thinks but what about people you work with?

China's middle class definitely has a battle ahead of them.

Phoenix

Pretty much regard them as thieves and cheats.
The local signs even tell people you will get cancer and die if you eat the meat they bbq.
They were special hats and are muslim...no one seems to like them much.
Just being honest.
They got pointed out to me, not in a friendly way.

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Captain Kawaii

This won't end well. Uighars have been invaded, like Tibetans and are being forcibly bred out by Han majority. If I were Han I wouldn't eat anything a Uighar gave me either.

But yes, its a mess. Sad to say.

The massive influx of Chinese into my neighborhood here...seems genuinely relieved. You can see it on their faces. Nice people. Girls are sweet and nice often trying to out slutty the Japanese girls. I love it, love them all.

In discussions with east Asians they always ask why so much propaganda against China. Western media positions them as a united powerhouse when in reality they struggle to get along, as you said, region to region, just like everyone else in the world.

I think that sort of false reporting is pushed by western bankers who are terrified they cannot control east Asia. Japan is finally starting to shrug off the yoke of financial oppression and China...won't have any of it.

Next 50 years? Interesting as hell.
Glad I will not live long enough to see much of it.

Cash4Me

IMHO China is not a problem. China as economic super power is relatively young (less than 30 years), they are trying to arrange this unrivaled growth and make better regulations.
The real problem is Euro zone or at least some fucked countries of Euro zone. For those countries the problems are now and not in 50 years.

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nekrom

Who knows, they've got a lot of shit to sort out first.

Pollution (land, water, air) air’s a bloody big one to solve, thank fuck I live in Sanya. Just about one of the last few places that’s not fucked up and believe me they’re trying.

Property prices that are bonkers, add to that 70 year leases on purchase. Oh and you don’t own the land. What happens in 70 years future? A bunch of people are approaching 60 years now, will be interesting to see that on the local news.

Different regions with different languages, add in this region hates that one. Fun times when trying to control a bunch of staff wanting to kick off over something.

A massive huge ass gap between the wealthy rich, the everyday middle class and the urban/rural poor. Good luck trying to turn China around to a domestic consumption driven economy, from an exports based one any time soon.

120 men to 100 women. That’s 20 men that will never get a girlfriend or get married. Now multiply that by the bazillions of people here. Hu Jintao was famously quoted on his leadership transition to Xi Jinping, by a cctv reporter for Xinwen Lianbo (7pm news) “what is the number one thing that keeps you up at night” to which he replied “40 million single men” – paraphrasing here.

Green tech is going to be a massive boom in the upcoming years here. They are already pumping shit tons of cash into it and I only see them ramping it up, not cutting back on that.

All in all, it’s exciting times and the current speed of progress & development here is mind blowing.

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crockett

What was the purpose in him even notifying you? Was he trying to force some sort of deal or you think he was just trying to nub his nose at a US company?

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crockett

I don't have a issue with Chinese people anymore than I have a issue with Russian people. The problem though is there seems to be a loss of translation that happened with both countries when they moved for total communist rule to capitalism. To give a easy example of this, that most of us can relate to, just look at the general reputation of Russian webmasters in this biz.

Russian webmasters have a long history of scamming and cheating in this biz. On their own forums they teach each other how to cheat vs how to do real business and boast about cheating westerners. This was a common issue as long as I was in this biz. Of course there were a few good guys in that mix but they sure as hell were a limited few.

China IMO is just the same as the Russian webmasters but with mainstream biz. There is some disconnect with doing legit business when it comes to Russians and Chinese. It's like they think it's ok to cheat or scam their way as normal business.. Perhaps it stems from their thoughts and beliefs of anti capitalism brought on by their govt's propaganda over the years, to the point they just think that's how normal businesses work.

L-Pink

Good post.

.

BlackCrayon

this is a common spam. they just wanted to sell you the domain (that probably isn't even registered).

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scottybuzz

The chinese have no emotions and are like machines. They wont rest until they are on top.

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.:R I O:.

The most important problems in China is, they ignoring food health, air health。 They can pollute everything when they are developping. A country without good living environment , how to become world leading in 50 years? As you may know it, every rich and powerful people of china moving to foreign countries now! BTW I'm fucking chinese . LOL

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OneHungLo

That's an old domain scam. Look up Domain Slamming / Fake trademark protection. They are just trying to scam you.

huey

China has no red tape to deal with like most democratic countries have when they want to get something done. Huge advantage.

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crockett

Yet they don't seem to have the ability to make their air breathable or make their rivers a color other than blood red from all the chemicals and pollution that is dumbed into them. One can only imagine the sickness that is likely coming from the food grown in their soils.

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crockett

Shitty ipad double post...

sandman!

95% of all spyware is Russian or Ukrainian in the 90's and beyond.

nowdays all decent tech's outside of the usa are Russian or Ukrainian

the same guys that used to scam are nowdays doing legit stuff.

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SleazyDream

a lot of what you're telling yourself about china is false.

China WILL surpass the USA within 20 years and be the world superpower. The problem is, it can't really take over the world via force cause it relies on the world for it's income. Attack and no one buys anything for years. So China will basically become the world's banker, and own everything. They are already doing this. The good news is China will have to get more involved in more uprisings for shit nations, saving us money.

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