Bladewire

Chief economist warns the next recession is on its way... to hit 2020 or sooner

"At 12:01 a.m. Friday, President Donald Trump’s trade war officially begins and trade partners are responding to his tariff increase with their own.

At the same time, gas prices have increased in the wake of Trump breaching the Iran nuclear treaty.

The Wall Street reform that was enacted in the wake of the real estate bubble and the worst financial crisis in modern history has now been mostly unwritten and deregulated."

Senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Jared Bernstein is warning that the next recession is on the horizon and is urging people to figure out a plan.

In a Washington Post op-ed, Bernstein wrote that he can “hardly open the financial section of the paper without reading some economist declaring that the next recession will hit in 2020.”

He referenced a recent poll of economists in The Wall Street Journal which shows that “a rough consensus” concluded “a very long US expansion is possible, albeit one that likely would require a significant mid-cycle slowing (or two). So it’s possible, but is it probable? We don’t think so.”

Add to that the stimulus enacted during the last recession will taper off in 2020 and the existing economic “expansion” is approaching its 10th year, making it one of the longest. That said, he notes that expansions don’t die as the result of age, instead it’s about bubbles and “central-bank mistakes or some unforeseen shock to the economy’s supply.” Another predictor is a trade war.

At 12:01 a.m. Friday, President Donald Trump’s trade war officially begins and trade partners are responding to his tariff increase with their own. At the same time, gas prices have increased in the wake of Trump breaching the Iran nuclear treaty. The Wall Street reform that was enacted in the wake of the real estate bubble and the worst financial crisis in modern history has now been mostly unwritten and deregulated.

“It is grossly irresponsible at this very late stage of the business cycle, to add legislative deregulation of the biggest banks in the country to widespread regulatory agency deregulation and non-enforcement,” said Dennis Kelleher, president of advocacy group Better Markets. “Unleashing the biggest banks is just asking for another horrific crash.”

“Again, none of this argues a recession isn’t out there somewhere ahead. It is. We just don’t know where,” continued Bernstein, who once served as Vice President Joe Biden’s chief economist.

2MuchMark

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Bladewire

RedFred

$5 submissions

Nate Silver approved?

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Bladewire

Damn that's hardcore truth right there in that link

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Robbie

One thing is for sure...there WILL be another recession/drop in the economy. It happens cyclically.

But right now? We are riding one of the best economies of our lifetime. Instead of worrying about what some economist who is so smart that he himself doesn't make much money...we should all be intent on working extra hard during the years of the economy kicking ass.

If I regret one thing from the mid 1990's to 2008 it would be...not working harder and making even more money.

Let's strike while the iron is hot!

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onwebcam

Real estate will be the undoing but it's not Trump's fault. It's the Federal Reserve's. Running historically low interest rates for years and then rapidly increasing them in a short time span is obviously going to shock the system. The shock is already occurring. My city is a boom town right now but new developments are already having problems selling their overpriced inventory..

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Bladewire

Exactly why I've been warning about this!

Get it while the getting is good, work hard and be prepared.

RedFred

The DOW has been stagnant for 7 months, wages are lower than a year ago, gas prices are 30% higher than a year ago, the GDP was only at 2% the first quarter. In what right wing bubble is this one of the best economies ever?

dyna mo

BaldBastard

The recession Trump is walking you into is end game, because by the time you recover China leads and that's "if" the USA recovers and I can't see that happening. All Trump has done is pushed other countries into trading more and being more dependant on China, we don't need a strong USA anymore.. the world needs a strong China.

dyna mo

Your anti-Americanism overwhelms any reasonable thinking you may have on the matter.

BaldBastard

But I'm not Anti American, I quiet like my life so far, I'd like nothing better than for the USA to continue its world domination for the rest of my life.

BUT>> Trump more than anyone has ensured that's not going to happen, in fact he's expediting the process.

And the issue is he's not fixing or making anything just breaking it and some of the things he's broken took years to negotiate... TPP, 7 years for example.

And what does America have in its place after 2 years... fucking nothing. And that's just one example of many. Compounding all of that he's pulled down regulations that protect you and your future.

Forgetting Trump, look at whoever comes in to clean up his mess.. their fucked because your country will be set back 15 years, meanwhile.. China steams ahead doing new deals with other countries daily... everybody including the USA is now in Chinas pocket.

Bladewire

↑↑↑ His post history proves he's NOT anti-American

He's just giving the fiscal truth

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dyna mo

Pure 100% conjecture, primarily based on your anti-Americanism.

BaldBastard

conjecture? fuck off, open your eyes and see what's happening, every time Trump has bitched at another country over trade, within a week their in China.. DOING DEALS, and that's a slice of trade your not getting back.

Bush fucked allies trust in the American war machine, and Trump is fucking it in Trade. Trumps America is not trusted, its not dependable and its not reliable, and to recover from that is going to take longer than the next presidents term, your going to need an Obama doing the apology tour and someone else sorting out the mess at home, and by the time you sort that shit out, its game over as China still chugs along at the same pace.

dyna mo

your anti-Americanism clouds any ability you may have to think rationally.

$5 submissions

That dude knows how to dance!

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dyna mo

like this thread, he gets down to the real nitty gritty!

BaldBastard

Trumps doing awesome much better than that Killary would of, he's making America and Americans great again day by day, the closer Trump and Putin can get the better off the world will be. And who cares about China.. it's fucking Amerika or nothin! MAGNA all the way! Your country was so so screwed under Obummer, dam he even wore beige suits! Have no fear those dark and desperate times of the past are over, your fears are over.. the Don is in Charge.



… Sorry I'm having a Ruski moment, but its just for you.

dyna mo

try and not be so glib all the time. Start with realizing how much your bias impacts your views, you'll then need to realize it's not all red or blue, reality is here in the middle ground.

I've made it beyond clear how much I dislike trump, that has nothing to do with you running around here declaring America is economically kaput and beyond recovery.

maybe that's some of your not math math. it doesn't add up.

Rochard

#thanksobama

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Rochard

That's what I was thinking....

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Look Chang

I love this music video ...

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pimpmaster9000

it is like a cult...if you say anything that does not fit with their views you will get called anti american

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thommy

you forgot the tariffs - maybe because you can´t see the impact right now.

the tariffs will make you life A LOT more expensive and it will cost jobs. unemployment has been rising again for several weeks now and the number of initial applications for unemployment assistance is higher than the number of newly created jobs.

but let´s have a look at the tariffs.
tariffs are nothing else then taxes because a buyer in US have to pay this tariffs additionally to what he pays for the imported good.

trump's tax reform has led to a shortfall in the state's annual revenue of around $600 billion.
so far, however, these taxes have mainly been paid by companies.
trump is talking about a volume of almost a trillion dollars which are treated with an average of 25% additional duty.

for companies, however, the profit mark-up on the purchase prices applies.
let's just assume that this surcharge is 100% (in practice it's more) then we're already talking about 500 billion in additional tax income for the goods being sold in the usa ONLY through the customs surcharge.

these 500 billion are not paid by the companies but by the customers who buy the goods. in other words: trump gabs the rich and now takes it away from ordinary citizens.

as the lives of americans are becoming more expensive, they will probably have to do without some things. this means that some goods are sold less and that costs jobs.

moreover, export goods are becoming more expensive, not only because of the more expensive purchase of raw materials, but also because of the counter-duties of the countries with which trump is currently fight his funny war. here, therefore, DOUBLE customs duties will have to be paid. these goods are no longer competitive on the world market and jobs will be lost.

you can turn this issue around and around and you will not find even ONE logic point or sign of knowledge in economies.

but i really doubt that trump supporter will realize that it is their fault when america lays down. they will never see the reason in the circumstance that they gave all power to an idiot and liar. and then you will have YOUR SYRIA there.

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thommy

I doubt that.
China can not win a trade war - nobody can win it.
but the worst case of all would be if china´s economy is frozen.

china is not only one of the biggest trading partners of US - they are also buying from many other countries.

trump does not understand how a global economy works and how intertwined it is.

if China´s economy stucks it will have influence on the whole planet.
even all trading partners what trump calls "good" will suffer and they will not have
the money to buy from US.

it is a fact that the US will be the biggest loser in this game. but there will not be a winner at all.

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BaldBastard

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...-traders-weeks

Chinas already started the long term deep fuck back, Xi is in power for a very long time, screw him now.. and get 20-30 years of screw back

thommy

Xi is not interested in a trade war. He knows anyone can only lose. But he (and possibly many other countries in the world) are now forced to show clearly that a trump on the world stage only causes damage.

Why do you think the stock markets, stagnating for months, are talking a little bit on the rise again?
Because this crazy amateur-president has once again turned in the wind and punitive tariffs against EU car imports are suddenly to become the complete ABOLITION of these tariffs.

He plays around and tries out because he knows nothing and everything at the expense of the world economy and the US citizens.
You could just as easily let a chimpanzee randomly throw out the decisions with the cube - that couldn't be creepier.

He has already lost this part of the trade war because if the EU moves towards China, America will be more bankrupt within 12 months than Greece and Turkey together.

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tony286

Thank you, I still see want ads for shit jobs with shit pay and they want a degree. Wait the trade war and the crash will some how become Obamas fault.

Again how anyone thought this man child, who wasn't good with money was going to steer this economy is so laughable.

thommy

but but but - he made SO MANY NEW JOBS ;-)



btw - the unemployment rate is already back to 4,0% - wait a few month more

but trump supporters don´t research. he just have to tell them that he made a huge job and they believe it.
it is not important for them if it is true or not.

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OneHungLo

That's funny Nazi tommy...unemployment clicks up a tenth of percent and you're doing backflips proclaiming the end of the US.





PS. Your graph is a lie. You left off part of Obama's term.

Bladewire

Trump's Tarrifs start today.

As sales go down because of increased costs of 20\ to 60% layoffs will begin and wages will go down.

Trump just put all economic growth to a complete standstill because Mexico, China, the EU & Canada have put Tarrifs on most all imports from America. Thanks Trump

OneHungLo

Maybe so, but after years of getting fucked on trade deals he's actually going to do something about it. Things may get a little hectic (to your delight), but don't worry buttercup thing will be fine.

dyna mo

it's easy proving thommy wrong, it only takes a bit of research.

‘Incredibly hot’: Economists weigh in on the US jobs report

The US labour market remains very strong, although trade tensions may yet weigh on the economy, said economists on Friday in response to the monthly US jobs report.

https://www.ft.com/content/9d73f4e0-...5-50daf11b720d

thommy

you forgot to change your account before you posted.

aha - so the US bueto of labor statistic is spreading lies ? how comes.

do you remember that obama came in when the world faced this biggest crisis in the past 100 years or have you been in jail in that time?

obama fixed what bush was responsible for.

trump got a growing economy in its hands and has managed to let it grow weaker and is now turning the wheel back.

but why do i explain it to you? you are too stupid and brainwashed (sorry for that oxymoron because where is no brain there can´t be one washed ) to understand it anyway. but the joy is on my side to watch it from the far as it goes every day a little bit downhill in the USA until even the last fool has understood which donkey you put there in the white house.

it would be fair after that if first those who warned of trump benefit from a hopefully sometime coming upswing and all trump voters including you have to eat shit for a few more decades

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crockett

Just in time for dumbass Republicans to blame the next guy..

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Robbie

You do realize that the shit you quoted was totally false correct?
The "man-child" has the economy ROARING.

As for wages...here it is from CNN itself (and you know they hate Trump):
America gets a raise: Wage growth fastest since 2009

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ClaudiaMarie.Com

dyna mo

and

U.S. Wage Growth in June Was 2018's Strongest So Far
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/...st-so-far.aspx

dyna mo

Hispanic-Latino Unemployment Rate Hits Lowest Level on Record in June

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...el-record-june

Bladewire

You don't seem to understand..

Wages are up 2.9%

Inflation is up 2.8%

People lucky enough to get a 2.9% raise are paying 2.8% more for gas, food, rent, etc.

If you weren't lucky enough to see a raise increase you are still paying 2.8% more for goods and services.

Do you understand now?

US Inflation Rate at Over 6-Year High

Also, the story you linked to was back in May. It's now July.

July 1st the tarriffs went into effect raising the price of thousands of imported goods by 25%

In August & September inflation reports will be higher as they will reflect the increases cost of goods starting this month.

Layoffs will begin around the holidays

xClips Jim

Like I said last week...

SuckOnThis

No wonder DynaTroll and OneHungTroll are always talking and defending each other, it's the same loser.

SuckOnThis

Idiots were agreeing with chump during the campaign that the unemployment rate was fake news and really at 50%, now its the best unemployment rate ever. Chump made a 45% gain in the unemployment numbers in 18 months. Wow!

DynaTroll is DynaGullible.

Bladewire

Now you see it

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dyna mo

go on and keep thinking the economy sucks and those of us making money are the same guy.

that doesn't change the fact I'm making good money while the getting is good.

dyna mo

I couldn't care less what you agreed to during the campaign.

Bladewire