kmanrox

you live near the coast, this shit happens every year... yeah katrina sucked, but doesnt mean we need to freak out about every storm now for fear we get lambasted for not making a big enough deal before it hits...

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ADL Colin

There's always error in such forecasts but check out the predicted surge at various times in this movie. A huge swath of coast is forecast to go completely under. Not your run of the mill storm.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i45_gl2.gif

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kmanrox

didnt they say similar stuff about gustav? (i dont know, just asking)

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ADL Colin

Yes they did. They did and it turned out not to verify. This is the problem with probability based forecasts. Some verify, some don't. Katrina verified, Gustav didn't.

Every storm that threatens New Orleans sets off the same panic because of the nature of New Orleans itself. New Orleans presents unique problems in the US. Plenty of false alarms there for sure. Problem with NO is the entire city is below sea level and is surrounded by 300 miles of levies. No one knows when a levy will be overtopped or fail. Such an unpredictable thing.

One problem is that improvements in intensity forecasts have come much slower than in track forecast. The 3 day average error in track forecast is about 140 miles. In 1970 it was 460 miles. Since 1990 the average track error has decreased from 290 miles to 140 miles. The average 3 day error in forecasting intensity is virtually unchanged at 19 knots. Which is about 22 mph. There is a new model the NHC is using that is still being developed. It is going to use unprecedented modeling of the real structure of each storm including real time data from recon, buoys and so on. It is hoped that this will improve the intensity forecast.

The unusual character of Ivan is its size and the large area over which tropical storm and hurricane force winds exists. It's only a category 2 but it is estimated that nearly as much water has been put in motion as in Katrina. Only about 10% less.

I've been watching the local Texas news. There's already some street flooding in Texas and landfall is a long ways off.

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Barefootsies

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ADL Colin

I don't disagree with you though about "living near the coast". I mean, if you live near the coast you should know what you are getting yourself into.

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DWB

I hear it's supposed to rain hard in Newport, Kentucky. They are already closing schools.

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Joe BrainCash

Besides, the US president denies global warning ( and his undeniable role in this) so don't Americans come in here and cry about the wild weather they've been having over the past couple of years and how worst it's only gonna get from here... They are responsible ( at least partially) for this.

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ADL Colin

Are you referring to hurricanes in particular?

It's not clear at all that warmer ocean temperatures (via global warming) will lead to a greater number of intense hurricanes hitting the US. There was a paper published last year that modeled warmer ocean temperatures and it predicts greater shear in the Atlantic/Gulf and thus less intense storms there. The model performed extremely well in backtesting. The same model predicts that there will be more intense hurricanes in other basins though. The paper was written by researchers at the GFDL.

Kerry Emanuel who has written some of the most influential papers on potential hurricane intensity has, for a long time, been a vocal advocate of the view that global warming will cause an increase in hurricane intensity. However earlier this year he published a paper which contradicts this view and now he has pretty much said he is uncertain.

The vast majority of hurricane researchers believe that the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity is due to the "tropical multi-decadal signal".

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Joe BrainCash

Thanks for the precision...I'll try to look for that last paper. It's actually nice to have a real information here on GFY!

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SCORE Ralph

Theres a difference in the geography of the Galvestone bay area in that its prone to heavy damage from storm surge. I believe it was 120 years ago this week that an unnamed storm killed over 3000 people when the storm surge came in through there.

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tranza

It's sad, but you live in a place where it happens all the time, and if this cannot be avoided, so all you can do is hope everything goes well and nobody gets hurt!

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EonBlue

You've been grossly misinformed (by Al Gore and the MSM no doubt).

Latest Science Debunks Hurricanes and Global Warming Link

Atlantic Basin Hurricane Counts Related Significantly to Solar Activity

Besides that the whole man made global warming threat has been pretty much debunked. There hasn't been any warming since 1998 and there has actually been a sharp cooling over the last couple of years. More and more scientists are starting to warn of impending global cooling. Cooling will be far worse than warming ever would be.

If you want to get yourself up to speed on what is actually going on spend some time going through this site (especially the archives):

http://icecap.us/index.php

sltr

so the current president is responsible for global warming? somehow decision made in the last 8 years created it? and america is responsible?


then you say this

these could be the 2 most retarded posts by 1 poster on gfy i've evr read