So, how low does Dow need to go before SHTF - GoFuckYourself.com

spacedog · 10-09-2008, 07:04 PM

I see people discussing points, etc for Dow, S&P, etc..

How low does it go before shit hits the fan?

What's considered a safe bottom?

collegeboobies · 10-09-2008, 07:05 PM

at 5000 i'll be happy

Furious_Male · 10-09-2008, 07:06 PM

Shit has already hit the fan for a lot of people.

Iron Fist · 10-09-2008, 07:07 PM

Lets hit the reset button and start over... i'll buy!

Kevin Marx · 10-09-2008, 08:45 PM

Until it gets to ZERO there's still value out there, but obviously that's major OH SHIT time.

Honestly, people need to stop pissing their pants and tell their legislators to stop bailing out the fuckheads that made mistakes over the last few years. Let the market right itself naturally. Losses will occur (that tends to happen, it's called a cycle, it's natural after all). People will learn not to take risks, then the process starts all over again.

Recessions occur naturally. Depressions occur because everyone panics all at the same time.

mmcfadden · 10-09-2008, 08:47 PM

No doubt... 6K

sltr · 10-09-2008, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevin-SFBucks

Depressions occur because everyone panics all at the same time.

that's an overly simplistic view and not accurate.

Spunky · 10-09-2008, 08:56 PM

It will stabilize next month...don't panic

FreeHugeMovies · 10-09-2008, 08:58 PM

7500.....

Kevin Marx · 10-09-2008, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sltr

that's an overly simplistic view and not accurate.

Yes, you are correct.

A recession is defined as a drop of more than 10% of the GDP for less than one calendar year, whereas a depression is a drop of more than 10% of the GDP for one calendar year or more.

The last time the GDP dropped more than 10% for a one year period or more was the Great Depression where it dropped over 18%.

If one person goes OH SHIT..... or they and a few people go OH SHIT and drastically lower or halt their spending... a recession can happen because there is an interruption in the monetary flow... when everyone goes OH SHIT!! at the same time... when everyone stops spending and effectually halts the flow of money.. there you go... a nice little (or big) depression. Hoarding money is the worst thing that can happen, but it's what everyone wants to naturally do.

Yes, very simplistic, but I don't have all my graphs and charts handy and it always takes weeks to remove the dry erase from my monitor when I start drawing on it.

woj · 10-09-2008, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreeHugeMovies

7500.....

sounds about right

EscortBiz · 10-09-2008, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woj

sounds about right

when it was 13000, 11500 sounded right to many then when it was 11500 they said 10500 is the def. bottom and now look where we are

milan · 10-09-2008, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevin-SFBucks

Until it gets to ZERO there's still value out there, but obviously that's major OH SHIT time.

Honestly, people need to stop pissing their pants and tell their legislators to stop bailing out the fuckheads that made mistakes over the last few years. Let the market right itself naturally. Losses will occur (that tends to happen, it's called a cycle, it's natural after all). People will learn not to take risks, then the process starts all over again.

Recessions occur naturally. Depressions occur because everyone panics all at the same time.

Nicely said!

sltr · 10-10-2008, 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevin-SFBucks

Yes, you are correct.

A recession is defined as a drop of more than 10% of the GDP for less than one calendar year, whereas a depression is a drop of more than 10% of the GDP for one calendar year or more.

The last time the GDP dropped more than 10% for a one year period or more was the Great Depression where it dropped over 18%.

If one person goes OH SHIT..... or they and a few people go OH SHIT and drastically lower or halt their spending... a recession can happen because there is an interruption in the monetary flow... when everyone goes OH SHIT!! at the same time... when everyone stops spending and effectually halts the flow of money.. there you go... a nice little (or big) depression. Hoarding money is the worst thing that can happen, but it's what everyone wants to naturally do.

Yes, very simplistic, but I don't have all my graphs and charts handy and it always takes weeks to remove the dry erase from my monitor when I start drawing on it.

you don't need graphs and charts to take a look at history and the causes of the 2 big depressions of the modern era.

you simply can't leave out several crucial factors that cause a great (or long depression) and blame it on people panicing and making a run on the banks.

for instance, during the great depression, unemployment was 25+%, industrtial production dropped about the same, and other issues. the panic contributed but was not the catalyst or the root cause.

we can also look at the causes of the other big depression in history, the long depression, and easily see that it was not simply a panic withdrawel of money by the people

It came at the end of a series of economic setbacks: the speculative nature of financing due to both the greenback which was specie issued to pay for the US Civil War, rampant fraud in the building of the Union Pacific Railway up to 1869 + the Black Friday panic of 1869, the Chicago fire of 1871, the outbreak of equine influenza in 1872, and the demonetization of silver in 1873.

10-09-2008, 07:04 PM	#1
spacedog Yes that IS me. Bitch. Industry Role: Join Date: Nov 2001 Posts: 14,149	So, how low does Dow need to go before SHTF I see people discussing points, etc for Dow, S&P, etc.. How low does it go before shit hits the fan? What's considered a safe bottom?

10-09-2008, 07:06 PM	#3
Furious_Male Doing the grind since 99 Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Buffalo NY Posts: 16,881	Shit has already hit the fan for a lot of people. __________________ Living in Virtual Reality Contact: Email (preferred): furiousmale .at. gmail - Skype: live:shanedws

10-09-2008, 07:07 PM	#4
Iron Fist Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 23,400	Lets hit the reset button and start over... i'll buy! __________________ i like waffles

10-09-2008, 08:45 PM	#5
Kevin Marx Confirmed User Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 1,888	Until it gets to ZERO there's still value out there, but obviously that's major OH SHIT time. Honestly, people need to stop pissing their pants and tell their legislators to stop bailing out the fuckheads that made mistakes over the last few years. Let the market right itself naturally. Losses will occur (that tends to happen, it's called a cycle, it's natural after all). People will learn not to take risks, then the process starts all over again. Recessions occur naturally. Depressions occur because everyone panics all at the same time. __________________ ICQ: 370 037 008

10-09-2008, 08:56 PM	#8
Spunky I need a beer Industry Role: Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: ♠ Toiletville ♠ Posts: 133,934	It will stabilize next month...don't panic __________________ *YOUR INFORMATION HERE*

10-09-2008, 07:05 PM	#2
collegeboobies So Fucking Banned Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,644	at 5000 i'll be happy

10-09-2008, 08:47 PM	#6
mmcfadden So Fucking Banned Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: philly Posts: 5,099	No doubt... 6K

10-09-2008, 08:58 PM	#9
FreeHugeMovies Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 14,137	7500.....