Originally Posted by Barefootsies

So true nig.

So true....

Originally Posted by harvey

hmmm.... regarding to this post I'd simply say "welcome to capitalism, it started around 1780" and that would be enough.

But let's be more specific. What you're saying was been told 1 zillion times in internet's adult business (as well as mainstream). Some history to put things in context:

I started a site in 1997 (sex-o-pedia) which was the direct antecedent of Freeones. Back in that time, they were a few of us, mostly what you could call "link lists". (a side note: in the "6 pages never ending tube yadda yadda" thread someone shown Freeones is one of the sites that didn't lose to tubes, or at least not much. That's because that concept is still great, however it takes a lot of work to do it. But there's another hint for you all)

Then top lists faced and everybody started crying and tearing their hairs (while a few ones started their own top lists). Top lists didn't make any harm, but then came TGP.

With TGPs, everybody starting crying again, this time much louder. At that time, a few of us created the TGP2 concept, for which I run the webmaster's central point (tgp2.net). The idea was that by listing only galleries with 5 clickable thumbs people would want to buy memberships. Everything fine in theory, however, once surfers saw TGPs listing no content they simply went to regular TGPs, and TGP2 failed miserably.

By the same time appeared the "Circle Jerks". No content at all, just "circle jerking" surfers betwee sites until they eventually would get tired and hopefully sign up with a pay site. They got LOADS of traffic. Of course, crap traffic, but still loads. And they disappeared. Some turned into CJ/TGP hybrids and disappeared or turned into full TGP.

Then file sharing... and the same story.

Now, it's tubes... and the same story.

It has been EXACTLY THE SAME SINCE THE BEGINNING. AND IT WILL ALWAYS BE LIKE THAT.

The common thing about this is... TRAFFIC. If you have the traffic, you make the rules.

With tubes, there are some scenarios that could happen. For sure, they'll get increasingly more traffic and kill most paysites in the meanwhile. That's why you see mostly webcams and dating sponsors in tube sites: because that's something they can't offer. Paysites as they're now, with the same business model than in 1997 (believe me, they didn't change a damn thing with a few honorable exceptions), are meant to disappear in its majority. One of the reasons is there are too many paysites for the market (wow....) and those that will survive are those willing to offer something different. I made a post explaining some things on content some time ago based on research. Some people heard, some people disbelief, some people laughed. The same that happened in the 6 pages tube thread: if you show evidence, most people will try to fool around evidence and deny it even if it's biting their own asses. However, although the key is in content, there are many many MANY ways to offer value added services tubes can't offer... for now.

So we get to another tube scenario: the "premium" access. Most tube sites are doing it right now for a small fee (around 10 bucks). Now, with tube sites getting 2 million uniques a day, if they convert 0.1% of that traffic that means $600,000 a month. OK, since most of the traffic is regular visitors, make it only 100,000. I think they'll be able to pay 10, 20 or 30 servers if they want. And form there, everything is gravy.

However, when a new technology shows up, most people gets used to it. So, why pay for the great image quality of the "premium access" when you can see videos with lower quality for free and still wank to those? This is the failure scenario for tubes, they're creating the same technology adequation for surfers that in turn will kill them. Those sites will get increasingly more traffic and they source venues will decrease in an exponential curve (when not directly disappear). So, at some point, they'll have shitloads of traffic and nowhere to direct it, at least places that will pay for it. Then the real "Tube Wars" will start and they will try to kill each other.

I don't have a crystal ball, I'm just telling what always happened and applying a tiny bit of logic.

So, they'll get to a point where they have lots of traffic and a few of them are surviving at this point... and then comes the next scenario: create their own networks of paysites, cam sites, dating sites, whatever. They've all the traffic for free already, and they'll be in a position where they could simply "pull the plug" and start selling like they never did.

Who is going to compete with that? Believe me, none of you, unless you change. Not now, you must change.... yesterday. A week ago. A month ago. You're already late and all your crying and whining didn't help at all, otherwise... you wouldn't be crying!!!!

So, what I said in the first post: WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO?

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

IMO some of the shooters ignored the Net at their peril and now suffering.