PREDICTIONS: When will the economy turn around? March? April? May? Years? VOTE!

[Simone_MakeBank]

I say we bottom at least temporarily in March 09.

Promote MakeBank

[ztik]

March 9th 09? Yeah right...
Maybe 2010 sometime if we are lucky

[notoldschool]

Im thinking a recovery is a pipe dream. maybe a couple of years we will start to see an upturn but thats about it. The idiots that voted because of religious beliefs have left our country in ruins. It happens to every empire and every religous ran economy. Blood thirsty retards running a biz is never a good thing.

[EscortBiz]

I think the big crazy collapse will happen end feb 09

[TheSenator]

We are not even near the bottom yet. I see the collapse of the housing market coming in late 2009. The automakers will be in bankruptcy or divide up and sold.

We are in for a shit storm.

[StuartD]

From the articles and reports I've read, most experts don't expect any kind of turn around until 2010... and even then, it's a turn around. That hardly means everything'll smell like roses again.

[ADL Colin]

I bet that GDP bottoms between April and June 2009
I bet that US unemployment (rate) bottoms between October and December 2009
I bet housing prices bottom between now and March 2009
I bet the the stock market (S&P) has already bottomed

[EscortBiz]

Originally Posted by ADL Colin

I bet that GDP bottoms between April and June 2009
I bet that US unemployment (rate) bottoms between October and December 2009
I bet housing prices bottom between now and March 2009
I bet the the stock market (S&P) has already bottomed

I bet that you are wrong on everything

if we can learn just one thing about this disaster it is that nobody knows SHIT! not me not you not warren buffinberg (maybe cramer lol)

[Michaelious]

it won't get better until 2010

[ADL Colin]

Originally Posted by EscortBiz

I bet that you are wrong on everything

if we can learn just one thing about this disaster it is that nobody knows SHIT! not me not you not warren buffinberg (maybe cramer lol)

Place your bets ;-)

Plenty of people saw real estate bust was going to come and bring a hella lotta problems. I remember back in 2005 some of us GFYers were sounding the warning bells.

[ADL Colin]

Originally Posted by ADL Colin

I bet that GDP bottoms between April and June 2009
I bet that US unemployment (rate) bottoms between October and December 2009
I bet housing prices bottom between now and March 2009
I bet the the stock market (S&P) has already bottomed

So what are you all thinking as to the whens and whys?

Here's what I am thinking.

The 2nd longest recessions in the 20th century were 16 months long. 1974 and 1982. 16 months would bring the current recession to April 2009. Given the depth of the housing crisis and the credit bubble somewhere in that same time frame makes sense to me.

As far as unemployment, unemployment historically continues to rise well past the end of the bottom in GDP. In a white paper a few years back someone interviewed a large number of employers and discovered that even once the general economy starts to recover employers are slow to rehire on the concern that there will be a "double-dip". So instead they increase hours and overtime.

As far as housing, john Stumpf the CEO of Wells Fargo said a few weeks ago that he thinks he's seeing signs of a bottom coming in now in housing. Wells Fargo handles 1/8 of all mortgages in the US so he had a pretty good look at that. He and others report multiple bids per property for the first time in a long while - just since dec 1. Mortgage rates are down to a 37 year low now. 5.1% this morning. There is a plan to push rates to 4.5%. Which is extraordinary. Inventory is dropping rather substantially in some major markets. In Boston MA the inventory is down 24% in the past 12 months. LA's inventory is down 17%. A number of markets have shown improvement in the Nov 15-Dec 15 period. See http://www.housingtracker.net/

As far as the stock market it is a forward indicator not a lagging one. For deep recessions the market typically rises over 30% in the 12 months from the bottom. Buffet has been incredibly prescient over the years (1974, 1982, 1999 articles were spot on) and his bull signal just a few months ago is more likely to be on than off.

If one assumes this is going to tie as the 2nd longest recession in the past 100 years then it would bottom in April 2009. The market as a forward indicator (5 months on average) should have already bottomed.Unemployment, if history repeats itself, will continue to rise - probably substantially - until the end of next year. 8-9%?

[ADL Colin]

This book by Russell Napier is an excellent study of 4 20th century bear markets. http://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Bear-L...54576&sr= 8-1
'
1921, '32, '49 and '82

A few interesting points.

1. Typically asset prices need to reinflate in order for the economy to start growing again. Napier points out that copper prices have been an excellent bellweather. Currently copper is at $1.36. It bottomed a few weeks ago at $1.25. Whether there will be further bottoms is obviously - at this point - unknown. Something to watch.

2. It is a myth that the market bottoms when there is no positive news. In the book, napier includes WSJ snippets in the months leading up to and following the market bottom. It is pretty clear that you first get some positive news stories and only then does the market rise.

[klinton]

this is apocalipse :-P

[The Judge]

Around April/May 2014

[JackJones75]

the market will recover faster than the general economy. so, i agree with your march 09 prediction. will be a long, slow recovery in terms of jobs and productivity growth, though.

[pornguy]

Originally Posted by EscortBiz

I bet that you are wrong on everything

if we can learn just one thing about this disaster it is that nobody knows SHIT! not me not you not warren buffinberg (maybe cramer lol)

Totally agree..

NOTHING has really stuck with what the talking heads have said.

And someone on here mentioned a good way to help things improve. TURN OFF THE FUCKING TV!

[raven1083]

lets all expect the worst from it

[IllTestYourGirls]

Originally Posted by notoldschool

Im thinking a recovery is a pipe dream. maybe a couple of years we will start to see an upturn but thats about it. The idiots that voted because of religious beliefs have left our country in ruins. It happens to every empire and every religous ran economy. Blood thirsty retards running a biz is never a good thing.

And then the retards who voted for Bush turn around and vote for Obama. Guess they found a new religion in "hope". To bad Obama is just as blood thirsty as Bush is. Onward into Afghanistan and Pakistan the "good war"!


Bottom will hit sometime in 2010.

[notoldschool]

Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls

And then the retards who voted for Bush turn around and vote for Obama. Guess they found a new religion in "hope". To bad Obama is just as blood thirsty as Bush is. Onward into Afghanistan and Pakistan the "good war"!


Bottom will hit sometime in 2010.

I agree, but since everyone thinks Ron Paul is crazy I would rather take my chances with someone who is actually intelligent, and is a great public speaker that gives people hope. That is really the presidents main job as he has a team that makes most of decisions. Obama is like gold compared to the joke of team the Neofags put up for office. Lets alteast hope that Obama really has some libretarian principles and it wasnt all a lie.

[biskoppen]

2009 + 2010 will be somewhat quiet years.. countries will try and solve the problems with all sorts of solution and money injections..

This wont work.. and all the money spent will result in a huge crysis starting in 2011 ending with world war in 2012..

That's it

[teomaxxx]

Originally Posted by EscortBiz

I bet that you are wrong on everything

if we can learn just one thing about this disaster it is that nobody knows SHIT! not me not you not warren buffinberg (maybe cramer lol)

and some of those who know something (or at least correctly predicted this crises) are literally SHITTING in their pants....cause this isnt going to be average recession

it was much more easier to predicte blow-up of financial system then to predict a way or a bottom of it.

[onwebcam]

Comex likely won't be able to deliver on it's gold obligations within the next two months. (48% of reserves as of 12/31 has been requested for physical delivery. If all is requested Comex will be short over 4 million ounces)

This will crash the price on the exchange because they can't deliver.
This could lead to a new Roosevelt like gold seizure but I doubt it.
Physical gold and silver will continue to greatly increase
Dollar will continue to decline.
Retails chains will begin filling for bankruptcy the first few months of the year putting countless of others out of work.
Compounded by larger companies downsizing such as Microsoft.
Less jobs and spending means more foreclosures and business closings.
Commercial properties will be the next real estate bubble to burst mostly due to the above but also values.
Auto manufacturers will continue to have problems
Loads of cash will be flushed into the marketplace with the idea of fixing the problem creating hyper-inflation and final demise of the dollar along with most other currencies.
The hyper-inflation will make it hard for your average person to obtain the basic of needs.
Within the next 2 years complete breakdown of the economy and society in general (civil unrest). Unless the following is offered up quicker than I believe.
All of the above will give them reason to sell the public on NAU and a new currency.
The new currency offered will be a world currency partially backed by gold still allowing for fractional banking scam.

[John-ACWM]

Economy will turn around semester after semester...Who knows...

[mynameisjim]

I don't know anything about the economy or anything else really, but I do know that in my 34 years on this Earth, the dooms day scenario stuff never comes true. Never!

Even Iraq, which was a total cluster fuck and heading for a dooms day scenario of spiraling into a mess is actually starting to turn around slowly.

This will be a deep, but historically normal recession. Expect turn arounds in 2009 right on target with other recessions.

Nothing spectacular to see here folks.

[ADL Colin]

Originally Posted by EscortBiz

I bet that you are wrong on everything

1. According to the national association of realtors the median home price bottomed in january, 2009. I'll take that as a win as I said between December and March - though I guess you might still think there's another leg down. I don't. Thoughts?

2008 Jun r 215,000
2008 Jul 210,100
2008 Aug 203,200
2008 Sept 191,400
2008 Oct 186,400
2008 Nov 180,300
2008 Dec 175,700
2009 Jan 164,800
2009 Feb 168,200
2009 Mar 169,900
2009 Apr 166,600
2009 May r 174,700
2009 Jun p 181,800

2. Did GDP bottom between April and June, 2009? Quite possibly. The forecast for the immediate quarter is +2-3%. Just a forecast and still remains to be seen but I think I'll be close anyway. Looks to me like the bottom will be either June or July.

3. I was definitely wrong about the stock market by 3 months and 10.1%. It dropped another 10% below the December low in March. But you call bottoms to within 3 months and 10% you'll make a killing. My entire portfolio is up over 100% in the past 12 months. Made a HUGE killing in WFC, IR and AXP. I still can't believe WFC was selling for single digits. Insanity! People really thought WFC was going out of business. No, no and no. Buffett was right. WFC was a gem. Roubini made me a fortune by scaring that price down. Thanks, dude!

4. Will unemployment bottom between October and December 2009? I'm still sticking with that one. What's the most recent consensus? Anyone know? I have to check.

I think the general outline of what was going to happen and the general timeline was pretty obvious to anyone with a solid knowledge of the history of US recessions and bear markets. History really does rhyme - to within 10% and a few months anyway. Unfortunately for most, fear overwhelms their decision making and they sell stocks when they should be buying.

[EscortBiz]

Originally Posted by ADL Colin

1. According to the national association of realtors the median home price bottomed in january, 2009. I'll take that as a win as I said between December and March - though I guess you might still think there's another leg down. I don't. Thoughts?

2008 Jun r 215,000
2008 Jul 210,100
2008 Aug 203,200
2008 Sept 191,400
2008 Oct 186,400
2008 Nov 180,300
2008 Dec 175,700
2009 Jan 164,800
2009 Feb 168,200
2009 Mar 169,900
2009 Apr 166,600
2009 May r 174,700
2009 Jun p 181,800

2. Did GDP bottom between April and June, 2009? Quite possibly. The forecast for the immediate quarter is +2-3%. Just a forecast and still remains to be seen but I think I'll be close anyway. Looks to me like the bottom will be either June or July.

3. I was definitely wrong about the stock market by 3 months and 10.1%. It dropped another 10% below the December low in March. But you call bottoms to within 3 months and 10% you'll make a killing. My entire portfolio is up over 100% in the past 12 months. Made a HUGE killing in WFC, IR and AXP. I still can't believe WFC was selling for single digits. Insanity! People really thought WFC was going out of business. No, no and no. Buffett was right. WFC was a gem. Roubini made me a fortune by scaring that price down. Thanks, dude!

4. Will unemployment bottom between October and December 2009? I'm still sticking with that one. What's the most recent consensus? Anyone know? I have to check.

I think the general outline of what was going to happen and the general timeline was pretty obvious to anyone with a solid knowledge of the history of US recessions and bear markets. History really does rhyme - to within 10% and a few months anyway. Unfortunately for most, fear overwhelms their decision making and they sell stocks when they should be buying.

national association of realtors? hahahah they been saying for a long time "thats it its coming back" ever hear guys from remax etc on cnbc? for 12 months now they saying they starting to see massive buying all over etc just to get others to buy.

See their tactic would work if the banks didnt want 20%+ down payment and great credit now, but many want to buy they simply cant.

Right now issues are simple, no fucking job, everyone says 400,000 new unemployed easy, but these are humans many with families.

And to see car companies having a spike because the gov gives people money to buy them? What will happen in a year from now?

Everything so far done has been band aids, its pathetic when good days in the market make people say ok great its all good now, problem solved.

The day that we start seeing more people being hired than fired than you know we are on a real road to recovery, everything else does not matter.

Id love to see this turn around as much as the next guy, but I know bullshitting myself and thinking positive and not looking at facts is good for high school girls but not in the real world.

Every industry is seeing massive drops in sales (except adult affiliate sites desperate for affiliates and car dealers because gov. is giving people nice cash to buy them).

Dropping dates and times when things will go good or bad is a fools game.

[MovieMaster]

late 2010 - mid 2011

[tony286]

my neighbor she is a real estate lady.She is busy. Saturday night wanted to go out to dinner, there were lines for every restaurant we tried to go to. My favorite restaurant the owner opened another 4 months ago. its doing do well he bought the lot next to it because he needed more parking. Things are coming back but jobs are going to be last its always that way.

[stoner529]

well being in the construction industry during the day, i sure hope this is rock bottom cuz i can't even afford to eat and this adult industry takes a while to see profit unless you already know everything. ive been doing it a year and havent seen benefits but i know everytime i work on it little by little i get an increase in traffic.

Obama is clan is slowly fixing things as promised. whos to say in the future his stuff wont mess anything up. i know they are having problems with the health care but that is an issue well over 100 years old. here is a thought. lets not make it so damn expensive to begin with. there will be a turn around and it is comming pretty soon. housing is up so that means jobs are comming. as well. hopefully hanukkah will be good this year and i can afford some candles. hopefully one day i can make it into the 64th version of the hanukkah song!

[DateDoc]

I can see why a lot of people are thinking we are out of the woods and can see some light through the forest but I do not think that we have seen the worst. Massive government spending creating unprecedented debt and dollar value heading south are going to cut short any strides we have made to exit this recession.

Lets not forget we still have commercial real estate and credit card defaults to get through. I also agree with EscortBiz about the National Association of Realtors. I'd be skeptical of their numbers.

[EscortBiz]

Originally Posted by tony404

my neighbor she is a real estate lady.She is busy. Saturday night wanted to go out to dinner, there were lines for every restaurant we tried to go to. My favorite restaurant the owner opened another 4 months ago. its doing do well he bought the lot next to it because he needed more parking. Things are coming back but jobs are going to be last its always that way.

you are a good luck charm tony

[PornoStar69]

this is bullshit, you dildo testers don't know fuck all

The Great Depression 2 is happening RIGHT NOW

dollar will collaspe, the stock market will crash and people will lose there jobs more and more.

Question is will you support that ZIONIST bastard Obama when he gives the word to attack Iran or not??????????????????

American people = Borg

Anyway fuck Israel fuck the neocons, illuminati,new world order, rockefellers, rothschilds

[TheDoc]

Originally Posted by PornoStar69

this is bullshit, you dildo testers don't know fuck all

The Great Depression 2 is happening RIGHT NOW

dollar will collaspe, the stock market will crash and people will lose there jobs more and more.

Question is will you support that ZIONIST bastard Obama when he gives the word to attack Iran or not??????????????????

American people = Borg

Anyway fuck Israel fuck the neocons, illuminati,new world order, rockefellers, rothschilds

You forgot 2012... might as well not care when the world is going to end anyway.

[derrick1]

We've been coming out of the last crisis recently, but the real crash is coming and soon...