Statistics problem (math help!).. am I being shaved? - GoFuckYourself.com

Myst · 01-27-2010, 02:56 PM

Code:

Jan 01-20	18529	3410	18.40%	$5,195.80 
21-Jan		1472	254	17.26%	$406.40 
22-Jan		1557	283	18.18%	$452.80 
23-Jan		2475	463	18.71%	$740.80 
24-Jan		3852	674	17.50%	$1,078.40 
25-Jan		3838	698	18.19%	$1,116.80 
26-Jan		1691	178	10.53%	$329.30 
27-Jan		1176	113	9.61%	$209.05

Here are my stats for an unnamed program. What is key is here how the conversion ratios have dropped so significantly the last two days (we are talking about the 3rd column not the first). Does anyone know how to use statistics to compare how I was doing from Jan1-25 to my ratios the last two days and see if the conversion rations Im getting could be possibly due to random chance?

grumpy · 01-27-2010, 03:06 PM

diffrent traffic cause i see a drop in traffic, so your default traffic converts less

Myst · 01-27-2010, 03:07 PM

same exact traffic. only thing that has changed is i got a 'raise' on the 26th, but im thinking they are shaving my leads

TheSenator · 01-27-2010, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myst

same exact traffic. only thing that has changed is i got a 'raise' on the 26th, but im thinking they are shaving my leads

I always thought shaving the leads would be easier once they are in the system.

Myst · 01-27-2010, 03:24 PM

dammit no one knows basic statistics?

moeloubani · 01-27-2010, 03:31 PM

depends on where you get your traffic from - google traffic can fluctuate like that

looks to me like you fell off for a good keyword, i would say normal fluctuations can be as much as +-20% a day (but more usually around +-10% a day for me at least) but something like -50% doesn't seem to be just a normal statistical irregularity but probably caused by something

Libertine · 01-27-2010, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myst

Code:

Jan 01-20	18529	3410	18.40%	$5,195.80 
21-Jan		1472	254	17.26%	$406.40 
22-Jan		1557	283	18.18%	$452.80 
23-Jan		2475	463	18.71%	$740.80 
24-Jan		3852	674	17.50%	$1,078.40 
25-Jan		3838	698	18.19%	$1,116.80 
26-Jan		1691	178	10.53%	$329.30 
27-Jan		1176	113	9.61%	$209.05

Here are my stats for an unnamed program. What is key is here how the conversion ratios have dropped so significantly the last two days (we are talking about the 3rd column not the first). Does anyone know how to use statistics to compare how I was doing from Jan1-25 to my ratios the last two days and see if the conversion rations Im getting could be possibly due to random chance?

A simple chi-squared test should suffice to get your answer, although you have to keep in mind that things like day of the week might be a confounder here.

KrissyElise · 01-27-2010, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myst

Code:

Jan 01-20	18529	3410	18.40%	$5,195.80 
21-Jan		1472	254	17.26%	$406.40 
22-Jan		1557	283	18.18%	$452.80 
23-Jan		2475	463	18.71%	$740.80 
24-Jan		3852	674	17.50%	$1,078.40 
25-Jan		3838	698	18.19%	$1,116.80 
26-Jan		1691	178	10.53%	$329.30 
27-Jan		1176	113	9.61%	$209.05

Here are my stats for an unnamed program. What is key is here how the conversion ratios have dropped so significantly the last two days (we are talking about the 3rd column not the first). Does anyone know how to use statistics to compare how I was doing from Jan1-25 to my ratios the last two days and see if the conversion rations Im getting could be possibly due to random chance?

1. Today is not over. Wait until tomorrow to have someone calculate this. Usually nights are good for us. So your day is not over yet depending on where you are. 26th could be an outlier.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myst

dammit no one knows basic statistics?

2. Don't upset that "no one knows basic statistics" unless you think it is something that everyone should know. If that is the case, why do you not know?

Libertine · 01-27-2010, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myst

dammit no one knows basic statistics?

No one who knows basic statistics finds statistics enough fun to do it for free

DBS.US · 01-27-2010, 06:05 PM

Shave or not, bottom line is: your traffic / balance paid.
If you can make more money with your traffic change programs

Nicky · 01-27-2010, 06:07 PM

You average around 18% Jan 1-25 and the last 2 day's around 10%, that's a loss of around 45%. I don't know, depends on your traffic etc but if It doesn't pick up something has happened either with the site or your traffic.

fuzebox · 01-27-2010, 06:31 PM

What happened to half your traffic? Not all traffic is created equally, if the half you are missing is a higher quality source, that explains it right there. Comparing 3800 of your uniques to 1700 uniques is almost apples and oranges.

Nicky · 01-27-2010, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fuzebox

What happened to half your traffic? Not all traffic is created equally, if the half you are missing is a higher quality source, that explains it right there. Comparing 3800 of your uniques to 1700 uniques is almost apples and oranges.

I don't think he is talking about that convertion. He means the % convertions which doesn't have with the amount of traffic to do.

edit: unless like you say that other half of the traffic is much better quality but It was still at ~18% on Jan 21 and 22 with same traffic is last 2.

Adraco · 01-27-2010, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Libertine

No one who knows basic statistics finds statistics enough fun to do it for free

Exactly! I paid with blood, seat and tears to go through business school and it's madatory statistics courses. That's not something you go around and do for free or for fun. I normally charge around $1500 to $2000 per day for my services and many are happy to pay.

garce · 01-27-2010, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myst

dammit no one knows basic statistics?

As well as you?

Ok, lemme see... Hmmm... You were doing pretty good, then they started shaving you.

I can tell this from the fucking comprehensive array of data you've put forth.

react · 01-27-2010, 08:33 PM

Group A is a clear winner (99.9%*)

Group A: 18.19% conversion
Group B: 10.53% conversion

http://www.usereffect.com/split-test-calculator

Myst · 01-27-2010, 10:46 PM

thanks react
yea i asked my stats friend and he told me i needed to use a 2 sample t-test. (it was something like 99.999628% chance something is up)
i was being shaved, as confirmed by the sponsor.

stats rules!

goldfish · 01-27-2010, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myst

thanks react
yea i asked my stats friend and he told me i needed to use a 2 sample t-test. (it was something like 99.999628% chance something is up)
i was being shaved, as confirmed by the sponsor.

stats rules!

wait! wait! wait!

You said this all occurred after a "raise"? That actually sounds kind of familiar to me, as in the same thing happened to me. Hit me up if you want to compare notes.

So the question is, are you going to out them? or did I miss the thread already?

SomeCreep · 01-27-2010, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myst

Code:

Jan 01-20	18529	3410	18.40%	$5,195.80 
21-Jan		1472	254	17.26%	$406.40 
22-Jan		1557	283	18.18%	$452.80 
23-Jan		2475	463	18.71%	$740.80 
24-Jan		3852	674	17.50%	$1,078.40 
25-Jan		3838	698	18.19%	$1,116.80 
26-Jan		1691	178	10.53%	$329.30 
27-Jan		1176	113	9.61%	$209.05

Here are my stats for an unnamed program. What is key is here how the conversion ratios have dropped so significantly the last two days (we are talking about the 3rd column not the first). Does anyone know how to use statistics to compare how I was doing from Jan1-25 to my ratios the last two days and see if the conversion rations Im getting could be possibly due to random chance?

My statistics say you're doing fine. Donate to Haiti.

Iron Fist · 01-28-2010, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DBS.US

Shave or not, bottom line is: your traffic / balance paid.
If you can make more money with your traffic change programs

Wouldn't it be nice to have a crystal ball that says "This traffic will convert best at X sponsor, that traffic will convert best at Y sponsor..."

No offense, but the "change sponsors" line doesn't mean anything, unless you can somehow prove that you would do better with a different sponsor, and the only way to know that is to change your traffic and test it out for awhile.... it's a gamble, plain and simple.

cyco_cc · 01-28-2010, 12:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myst

thanks react
yea i asked my stats friend and he told me i needed to use a 2 sample t-test. (it was something like 99.999628% chance something is up)
i was being shaved, as confirmed by the sponsor.

stats rules!

IIRC, a t-test requires that the data be normally distributed. Are the mean conversion ratios on any specific day (say Saturday) much different than the others? If so, the test will probably provide inaccurate results.

But if you already confirmed it, stats are no match for verifiable evidence

Libertine · 01-28-2010, 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myst

thanks react
yea i asked my stats friend and he told me i needed to use a 2 sample t-test. (it was something like 99.999628% chance something is up)
i was being shaved, as confirmed by the sponsor.

stats rules!

While confirmation from the sponsor is a pretty clear indication, the 2 sample t-test actually wasn't suitable at all.

Sampling requires randomness to be reliable. By comparing one of the worst days to one of the best days, you eliminate randomness and thus reliability. Pre-selecting known data sets to compare almost never delivers statistically valid results.

Aside from that, you're dealing with categorical variables. So you should have used the chi-squared test instead.

security_man · 01-28-2010, 07:18 AM

show it to your sponsor, its some money they cannot fuck with your as with any newbie

01-27-2010, 02:56 PM	#1
Myst Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Alberta, Canada Posts: 4,707	Statistics problem (math help!).. am I being shaved? Code: Jan 01-20 18529 3410 18.40% $5,195.80 21-Jan 1472 254 17.26% $406.40 22-Jan 1557 283 18.18% $452.80 23-Jan 2475 463 18.71% $740.80 24-Jan 3852 674 17.50% $1,078.40 25-Jan 3838 698 18.19% $1,116.80 26-Jan 1691 178 10.53% $329.30 27-Jan 1176 113 9.61% $209.05 Here are my stats for an unnamed program. What is key is here how the conversion ratios have dropped so significantly the last two days (we are talking about the 3rd column not the first). Does anyone know how to use statistics to compare how I was doing from Jan1-25 to my ratios the last two days and see if the conversion rations Im getting could be possibly due to random chance? __________________ ICQ: 298-523-037

01-27-2010, 03:06 PM	#2
grumpy Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Holland Posts: 9,870	diffrent traffic cause i see a drop in traffic, so your default traffic converts less __________________ Don't let greediness blur your vision \| You gotta let some shit slide icq - 441-456-888

01-27-2010, 03:07 PM	#3
Myst Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Alberta, Canada Posts: 4,707	same exact traffic. only thing that has changed is i got a 'raise' on the 26th, but im thinking they are shaving my leads __________________ ICQ: 298-523-037 Last edited by Myst; 01-27-2010 at 03:08 PM..

01-27-2010, 03:24 PM	#5
Myst Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Alberta, Canada Posts: 4,707	dammit no one knows basic statistics? __________________ ICQ: 298-523-037

01-27-2010, 06:05 PM	#10
DBS.US Geo Cities Industry Role: Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: North Captiva Island, Florida USA Posts: 11,832	Shave or not, bottom line is: your traffic / balance paid. If you can make more money with your traffic change programs __________________ Make a Free Chaturbate White Label site in 34 minutes and be making money tonight

01-27-2010, 03:31 PM	#6
moeloubani Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Ontario Posts: 4,235	depends on where you get your traffic from - google traffic can fluctuate like that looks to me like you fell off for a good keyword, i would say normal fluctuations can be as much as +-20% a day (but more usually around +-10% a day for me at least) but something like -50% doesn't seem to be just a normal statistical irregularity but probably caused by something

01-27-2010, 06:07 PM	#11
Nicky Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Sweden Posts: 30,069	You average around 18% Jan 1-25 and the last 2 day's around 10%, that's a loss of around 45%. I don't know, depends on your traffic etc but if It doesn't pick up something has happened either with the site or your traffic. __________________ gfynicky @ gmail.com

01-27-2010, 06:31 PM	#12
fuzebox making it rain Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: seattle Posts: 22,111	What happened to half your traffic? Not all traffic is created equally, if the half you are missing is a higher quality source, that explains it right there. Comparing 3800 of your uniques to 1700 uniques is almost apples and oranges.

01-27-2010, 08:33 PM	#16
react Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NZ Posts: 673	Group A is a clear winner (99.9%*) Group A: 18.19% conversion Group B: 10.53% conversion http://www.usereffect.com/split-test-calculator __________________ -- react

01-27-2010, 10:46 PM	#17
Myst Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Alberta, Canada Posts: 4,707	thanks react yea i asked my stats friend and he told me i needed to use a 2 sample t-test. (it was something like 99.999628% chance something is up) i was being shaved, as confirmed by the sponsor. stats rules! __________________ ICQ: 298-523-037

01-28-2010, 07:18 AM	#23
security_man So Fucking Banned Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Texas Posts: 190	show it to your sponsor, its some money they cannot fuck with your as with any newbie