Trump will win U.S. presidency, prof predicts - GoFuckYourself.com

SilentKnight · 03-02-2016, 05:18 PM

A professor who says his unique model for predicting U.S. election results has a 96 per cent success rate says Donald Trump will likely be the next president.
Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University in New York, uses data from primary races to predict who will win the final vote.
He's applied his predictions model to elections dating back to 1912, and so far, he's only been wrong once: in 1960, when Democrat John F. Kennedy defeated Republican Richard Nixon.

Norpoth says he owes his 96 per cent success rate to a relatively simple formula.
"For each of these elections, you can take a look at what happens within the parties," he said. "A candidate who does better against the competition within his or her party beats the candidate of the other party."

For example, Norpoth said, Trump is currently leading in the Republican primaries. Without counting the results from Super Tuesday, the businessman-turned-candidate has dominated in races in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Meanwhile, Norpoth said, the support of Democratic voters has been more evenly split between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
As a result, Norpoth is projecting a Trump victory in the 2016 presidential election.
"Donald Trump is the stronger candidate, based on that metric, and that gives him the edge in the election," Norpoth said.
While other polls contradict Norpoth's predictions, the professor said it's too early for traditional polling to be accurate.
A recent CNN poll predicted a Democrat victory over Trump, regardless of whether Clinton or Sanders wins the party's nomination.

But Norpoth said polls tend to be inaccurate until closer to the final election date.
"I'm not worried much that a poll right now shows something else," he said.
Norpoth said the Super Tuesday results, so far, seem to confirm Trump's lead.
But if the controversial candidate doesn't win the Republican nomination, Norpoth said, that would change the playing field.

"If somebody else gets the nomination other than Donald Trump, in that case, any other Republican would do less well than Hillary Clinton," he said.

Prepare for President Donald Trump, election-predicting prof says

AaronM · 03-02-2016, 05:27 PM

But does his system take cheating into account?

SilentKnight · 03-02-2016, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AaronM

But does his system take cheating into account?

It would have to.

Try finding an honest politician in this day and age.

mineistaken · 03-02-2016, 06:29 PM

Trump is no ordinary candidate (comparing to all those previous) so that method of predicting may be very off due to this fact.

Also, even if Trump was ordinary republican - fact that there is bigger percentage of libbies and bigger percentage of minorities (both are heavily democrat) compared to all of those previous elections may not give us that 96% chance of the model being correct (because that success rate is for those different times in terms of minority and libby population).

pornmasta · 03-02-2016, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mineistaken

(both are evilly democrat)

omg

Rochard · 03-02-2016, 08:41 PM

#drumpf

lol.

2MuchMark · 03-02-2016, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rochard

#drumpf

lol.

LovinNothin · 03-03-2016, 01:24 AM

You don't need any system at all.

America is not ready for a women president. That's all there is to it.

The world is in chaos and nobody want's a bitch like Hillary at the helm with her big fat white mushy ass that even Bill won't slap anymore.

davidclickpapa · 03-03-2016, 02:51 AM

so it will boil down to this?

pimpmaster9000 · 03-03-2016, 01:22 PM

crockett · 03-03-2016, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davidclickpapa

so it will boil down to this?

Seems to be headed that way..It will be interesting to see which party has the most unsatisfied voters due to the shity choices on both sides.

It would be killer if Bernie and Rand Paul both jumped ships and ran independent as a tag team.

03-02-2016, 05:18 PM	#1
SilentKnight Megan Fox's fluffer Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: shooting pool in Elysium Posts: 24,818	Trump will win U.S. presidency, prof predicts A professor who says his unique model for predicting U.S. election results has a 96 per cent success rate says Donald Trump will likely be the next president. Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University in New York, uses data from primary races to predict who will win the final vote. He's applied his predictions model to elections dating back to 1912, and so far, he's only been wrong once: in 1960, when Democrat John F. Kennedy defeated Republican Richard Nixon. Norpoth says he owes his 96 per cent success rate to a relatively simple formula. "For each of these elections, you can take a look at what happens within the parties," he said. "A candidate who does better against the competition within his or her party beats the candidate of the other party." For example, Norpoth said, Trump is currently leading in the Republican primaries. Without counting the results from Super Tuesday, the businessman-turned-candidate has dominated in races in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Meanwhile, Norpoth said, the support of Democratic voters has been more evenly split between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. As a result, Norpoth is projecting a Trump victory in the 2016 presidential election. "Donald Trump is the stronger candidate, based on that metric, and that gives him the edge in the election," Norpoth said. While other polls contradict Norpoth's predictions, the professor said it's too early for traditional polling to be accurate. A recent CNN poll predicted a Democrat victory over Trump, regardless of whether Clinton or Sanders wins the party's nomination. But Norpoth said polls tend to be inaccurate until closer to the final election date. "I'm not worried much that a poll right now shows something else," he said. Norpoth said the Super Tuesday results, so far, seem to confirm Trump's lead. But if the controversial candidate doesn't win the Republican nomination, Norpoth said, that would change the playing field. "If somebody else gets the nomination other than Donald Trump, in that case, any other Republican would do less well than Hillary Clinton," he said. Prepare for President Donald Trump, election-predicting prof says

03-02-2016, 08:41 PM	#6
Rochard Jägermeister Test Pilot Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: NORCAL Posts: 72,826	#drumpf lol. __________________ “The choice is no longer between right or left. The choice is between normal and crazy.” - Sarah Huckabee Sanders YNOT MAIL \| THE BEST ADULT MAILING SOLUTION

03-03-2016, 02:51 AM	#9
davidclickpapa Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: May 2015 Location: Budapest, Hungary, EU Posts: 983	so it will boil down to this? __________________ ClickPapa.com - Smart Ad Network for Smart People - Buy or sell CPC/CPM [BLOG - TWITTER - FB - INFOGRAPHIC about becoming more successful with us] Real Time Bidding / Selectable minimum CPM per geo / Premium Inventory / IP Range Targeting / Dayparting / Audited traffic / Weekly Payout / Campaign Optimalizator / Sub Affiliate ID Tracking / Fallback URL per geo / Responsive Dashboard / S2S Postback / Paxum+PayPal+Payoneer supported / Dedicated Account Managers Current promos: [#ClickPapaMadeMeRich - extra Affiliate bonus $50 and up!] [Spread the word and earn big! - put your refcode site-wide for an extra 5%!] David (marketing manager) - mail: [email protected]

03-03-2016, 01:22 PM	#10
pimpmaster9000 Too lazy to set a custom title Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 26,732	__________________ Report a suspicious cracker: Click Here

03-02-2016, 05:27 PM	#2
AaronM Too lazy to set a custom title Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: ┌∩┐ ◣_◢ ┌∩┐ Posts: 46,909	But does his system take cheating into account?

03-02-2016, 06:29 PM	#4
mineistaken See signature :) Industry Role: Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: ICQ 363 097 773 Posts: 29,656	Trump is no ordinary candidate (comparing to all those previous) so that method of predicting may be very off due to this fact. Also, even if Trump was ordinary republican - fact that there is bigger percentage of libbies and bigger percentage of minorities (both are heavily democrat) compared to all of those previous elections may not give us that 96% chance of the model being correct (because that success rate is for those different times in terms of minority and libby population).

03-03-2016, 01:24 AM	#8
LovinNothin So Fucking Banned Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 565	You don't need any system at all. America is not ready for a women president. That's all there is to it. The world is in chaos and nobody want's a bitch like Hillary at the helm with her big fat white mushy ass that even Bill won't slap anymore.