New national poll, taken before FBI review, finds Clinton, Trump neck and neck

[Coup]

New national poll finds Clinton, Trump neck and neck - CNNPolitics.com

Washington (CNN)A new national poll that was taken before Friday's bombshell announcement that the FBI was reviewing emails related to Hillary Clinton's private server finds the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump in a tight race.

Clinton's 47%-45% edge in the new Washington Post/ABC tracking poll released Saturday is within the poll's 3-point margin of error. As recently as Sunday, Clinton led Trump 50% to 38% in the poll.

Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is winning 4% while Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2%.

The tracking poll improves Trump's standing by 1 percentage point in CNN's Poll of Polls, which averages the five most recent publicly released national polls that meet CNN's standards for publication. Clinton is leading 47% to Trump's 42% in polls taken from October 17 to 26.

More than 80% of registered Republicans are likely voters in the Washington Post/ABC poll, up from 75% a week ago. The poll ascribes some of Trump's success to his improved standing among independents. He's gone from a 6-point deficit among that group to a 16-point advantage, with more Republican-leaning voters in their ranks.
The survey was taken between October 24 and 27, before Friday's announcement that the FBI was reviewing emails related to its investigation into Anthony Weiner's sexting with a purportedly underage girl. Weiner's estranged wife, Huma Abedin, is a top aide to Clinton and worked with her at the State Department, and the emails in question were sent or received by Abedin.

The FBI is looking at whether any of the newly discovered emails will have an impact on the now-closed investigation into Clinton's server. In his letter to Congress, Comey said he was not sure how long the additional review would take and said the FBI "cannot yet assess whether or not this material may be significant."

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone in English and Spanish among a random national sample of 1,148 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The partisan divisions are 37-29-29% Democrats-Republicans-independents.

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was the one that had Clinton at +12 a few days ago. LMAO she has lost ten points and this is before the FBI review.

RIP SHILLARY

[nico-t]

SHE GUNNA GIT STUMPED!

[nico-t]

[Coup]

Originally Posted by nico-t

Please don't post the Hillary and Huma sex tape.

[Joshua G]

that ABC poll is more than embarrassing. it shows the polls are 100% fudged, they do not reflect reality, just what the so called "news outlet" wanted to see.

we have no news media anymore. just liberal activists, & conservative activists, all faking journalism, faking polls, faking everything. they dont even care about the rule of law, its so important to elect hilary. disgraceful.

[Biggy]

Look at the electoral map. She is clearly ahead, by a lot. And at this point, most voters minds are likely already made up.

She can lose Florida and she'll still win. I have news for you... Hillary is going to be the next President whether you like it or not. If you don't believe that, then put your money where your mouth is, mortgage the house, and make a large bet in the betting markets cause you can get some great odds.

Here's probably the best predictive model of the election (The Winding Path to 270 Electoral Votes):
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...omo#stateorder

[Joshua G]

Originally Posted by Biggy

Look at the electoral map. She is clearly ahead, by a lot. And at this point, most voters minds are likely already made up.

She can lose Florida and she'll still win. I have news for you... Hillary is going to be the next President whether you like it or not. If you don't believe that, then put your money where your mouth is, mortgage the house, and make a large bet in the betting markets cause you can get some great odds.

Here's probably the best predictive model of the election (The Winding Path to 270 Electoral Votes):
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...omo#stateorder

keep drinking the kool aid...those maps are not only fudged, they are obsolete. maybe you should consider the ENTHUSIASM of the candidates supporters in your equation. somehow you totally missed the 30 people that showed up for tim kaine in florida, or the 50 that showed up in mount kisco, hilarys town next to chappaqua.

i guess you prefer media-fudged data rather than believe your own eyes.

november 8 is going to hurt your media-dulled brain.

[Biggy]

Originally Posted by Joshua G

keep drinking the kool aid...those maps are not only fudged, they are obsolete. maybe you should consider the ENTHUSIASM of the candidates supporters in your equation. somehow you totally missed the 30 people that showed up for tim kaine in florida, or the 50 that showed up in mount kisco, hilarys town next to chappaqua.

i guess you prefer media-fudged data rather than believe your own eyes.

november 8 is going to hurt your media-dulled brain.

I don't believe there is a causal relationship between how many people show up at rallies, and how the election turns out. I think its a matter of fundamentals, for whatever reason, that Republican rallies draw big audiences, and Democrat rallies do not. For example , as a whole Republicans can have a lot more enthusiasm for showing up to rallies, but that does not mean there are more people voting Republican than Democrat. It just means more people show up at rallies. The election is not decided by which party can get more people to show up to rallies. The election is decided by who can get more people to vote for them on election day, and there is a large swath of people that vote, that will never go to a rally. I believe during Obama vs Romney I was hearing the same. Romney rallies were huge, Obama's were half full. And he won by a landslide in the electoral college.

How much have you personally bet on the election? You can get some great odds if you believe so strongly about it.

FYI, I am no Hillary fan. I am just giving you the facts of life.

[onwebcam]

Originally Posted by Biggy

I don't believe there is a causal relationship between how many people show up at rallies, and how the election turns out. I think its a matter of fundamentals, for whatever reason, that Republican rallies draw big audiences, and Democrat rallies do not. For example , as a whole Republicans can have a lot more enthusiasm for showing up to rallies, but that does not mean there are more people voting Republican than Democrat. It just means more people show up at rallies. I believe during Obama vs Romney I was hearing the same. Romney rallies were huge, Obama's were half full. And he won by a landslide in the electoral college.

How much have you personally bet on the election? You can get some great odds if you believe so strongly about it.

It is fact that the Republican turnout in the primaries was a record turnout and the Democrats had a low turnout. In fact it was damn near an even turnout nationwide despite there there bring a lot more registered dems. With that being said the pollsters aren't factoring that in. Even if they were they would still be oversampling. Clinton is behind in the polls now.. No doubt. And this is based on polls before Friday.

[Joshua G]

Originally Posted by Biggy

I don't believe there is a causal relationship between how many people show up at rallies, and how the election turns out. I think its a matter of fundamentals, for whatever reason, that Republican rallies draw big audiences, and Democrat rallies do not. For example , as a whole Republicans can have a lot more enthusiasm for showing up to rallies, but that does not mean there are more people voting Republican than Democrat. It just means more people show up at rallies. The election is not decided by which party can get more people to show up to rallies. The election is decided by who can get more people to vote for them on election day, and there is a large swath of people that vote, that will never go to a rally. I believe during Obama vs Romney I was hearing the same. Romney rallies were huge, Obama's were half full. And he won by a landslide in the electoral college.

How much have you personally bet on the election? You can get some great odds if you believe so strongly about it.

FYI, I am no Hillary fan. I am just giving you the facts of life.

OK. the hilary fans are never hilary fans. LOL.

& i understand, it is conventional wisdom that rally size does not correlate to election results. 2 retorts - 1, conventional wisdom regarding the trump campaign has been consistently wrong. 2, the difference in the rally sizes is staggering, not even close to a margin of error. the real story in this election is the complete lack of emotion & enthusiam among clinton supporters. even you dont like her!

she's going to lose. because trump has more energy & enthusiams around his campaign while hilarys is almost completely a media operation, she has been in hiding most of this fall. she's run a smug, ignorant, lazy campaign based totally on celebrity & womens issues, thats not where the voters are. they want change.

im just giving you other facts of life your not looking at.

[Biggy]

Originally Posted by onwebcam

It is fact that the Republican turnout in the primaries was a record turnout and the Democrats had a low turnout. In fact it was damn near an even turnout nationwide despite there there bring a lot more registered dems. With that being said the pollsters aren't factoring that in. Even if they were they would still be oversampling. Clinton is behind in the polls now.. No doubt. And this is based on polls before Friday.

I don't think it matters. Primaries, rallies, you are really talking about a very passionate subset and subgroup of the population. The elections are won based upon the independents and middle voters, and the general population. People like me, who really don't give a shit and hate both candidates.

Look, Polls for the most part are accurate. Are they all accurate? Nope. But are they all wrong simultaneously? Probably not. Let's take the most extreme recent case of Brexit. 2-3 weeks before Brexit was clearly ahead in the polls, but then the week before the polls began to change, and clearly illustrated clear momentum of Brexit passing. The catalysts were in place in that last week, and the change and momentum was reflected in the polls. When that election happened, it really was a true toss up on election day. Some of the polls had begin to change and capture the momentum of the pro-Brexit vote.

If you look at all the polls today, he is behind, by a lot. And if Trump was up in the polls, we would all know about because he would be telling us how shitty Hillary is doing in the polls, just like he did to all the other Republicans during primary season (And those polls ended up predicting the results correct - didn't they?). If you believe every poll and polls in general are wrong, then you have the great financial opportunity in front of you. You can place a bet on the election and get fantastic odds, because those odds are built off of the polls which you don't trust.

If you want to know where I stand on my personal opinion, I stopped caring when Jeb Bush bowed out. He should have been the candidate, and he would have won, and I would have voted for him. I would have take him or Kasich.

Hillary is going to win, and my taxes are going to go higher. And I've accepted that.

[onwebcam]

Originally Posted by Biggy

I don't think it matters. Primaries, rallies, you are really talking about a very passionate subset and subgroup of the population. The elections are won based upon the independents and middle voters, and the general population. People like me, who really don't give a shit and hate both candidates.

Look, Polls for the most part are accurate. Are they all accurate? Nope. But are they all wrong simultaneously? Probably not. Let's take the most extreme recent case of Brexit. 2-3 weeks before Brexit was clearly ahead in the polls, but then the week before the polls began to change, and clearly illustrated clear momentum of Brexit passing. The catalysts were in place in that last week, and the change and momentum was reflected in the polls. When that election happened, it really was a true toss up on election day. Some of the polls had begin to change and capture the momentum of the pro-Brexit vote.

If you look at all the polls today, he is behind, by a lot. And if Trump was up in the polls, we would all know about because he would be telling us how shitty Hillary is doing in the polls, just like he did to all the other Republicans during primary season. If you believe every poll and polls in general are wrong, then you have the great financial opportunity in front of you. You can place a bet on the election and get fantastic odds, because those odds are built off of the polls which you don't trust.

If you want to know where I stand on my personal opinion, I stopped caring when Jeb Bush bowed out. He should have been the candidate, and he would have won, and I would have voted for him.

Inde's are switching to Trump in droves.. 22pt move in 3 days (pre-friday) on ABC poll. Simply put the honeymoon is over and everyone is now asking themselves, "Who do I want to wake up to the next 4 years? A crooked lying old hag with the establishment or a playboy billionaire change agent?"

[Biggy]

Originally Posted by onwebcam

Inde's are switching to Trump in droves.. 22pt move in 3 days (pre-friday) on ABC poll. Simply put the honeymoon is over and everyone is now asking themselves, "Who do I want to wake up to the next 4 years? A crooked lying old hag or a playboy billionaire?"

If someone were going to describe Trump, I don't think they would describe him as a "playboy billionaire." I think you may be seeing the world through rose colored lenses.

This is a man who, in the last month, has had 10+ women who have recently come out and said he sexually harrassed and/or groped them, after he got caught on a recording saying he likes to "grab them by the pussy." and that he's a celebrity and it just works like that.

Got any polls on how many women are voting for him?

[Coup]

Originally Posted by Biggy

Got any polls on how many women are voting for him?

Presidential Polling Data - Presidential Gender Watch

Here's a gender breakdown of polls. She tends to lead by 10-15% percent among female voters

[onwebcam]

Originally Posted by Biggy

If someone were going to describe Trump, I don't think they would describe him as a "playboy billionaire." I think you may be seeing the world through rose colored lenses.

This is a man who, in the last month, has had 10+ women who have recently come out and said he sexually harrassed and/or groped them, after he got caught on a recording saying he likes to "grab them by the pussy." and that he's a celebrity and it just works like that.

Got any polls on how many women are voting for him?

I see lots of women on my FB feed for Trump. Loads more than I do for Hillary. Then again I rarely see any support for Hillary. As far as the claims. Most that I've seen seemed to have an ulterior motive. 1 of them invited him to campaign at her restaurant, he ignored, and months later she comes out with this.

[Coup]

Originally Posted by onwebcam

I see lots of women on my FB feed for Trump. Loads more than I do for Hillary. Then again I rarely see any support for Hillary. As far as the claims. Most that I've seen seemed to have an ulterior motive. 1 of them invited him to campaign at her restaurant, he ignored, and months later she comes out with this.

Are they white women? Because trump has strong and growing support among white females.

White women have swapped their allegiance to the Republican by 48 per cent to 43 - a reversal from the 49 per cent to 43 per cent tilt in Clinton's favor which they had before.

Hillary Clinton loses double-digit poll lead as Trump makes headway in new survey | Daily Mail Online

[Biggy]

Originally Posted by Coup

Presidential Polling Data - Presidential Gender Watch

Here's a gender breakdown of polls. She tends to lead by 10-15% percent among female voters

That's a fairly substantial gap to overcome.

On half the population she is up by 10-15 (women). Then on the other half of the population (men), Trump is up by 5, and it shosw a net factor favorable of the gender gap to Clinton of 7-10, dependent on the poll you look at. That's pretty big.

No matter which way you look, including an averaging of the polls, the electoral map, the gender gap, minority numbers - it all points to the same thing --> a Clinton victory.

Trump loves touting poll numbers. He had no problem touting them during primary season. Now he is quiet. Gee, I wonder why.

[nico-t]

Originally Posted by Coup

Presidential Polling Data - Presidential Gender Watch

Here's a gender breakdown of polls. She tends to lead by 10-15% percent among female voters

I am highly offended by these sexist stats. Where are the genderneutrals? This is preposterous! We need a GFY safe space!

[Coup]

Originally Posted by Biggy

That's a fairly substantial gap to overcome.

It's being overcome RAPIDLY. Clinton is dropping like a stone and it's only going to get worse for her.

[Joshua G]

Originally Posted by Biggy

No matter which way you look, including an averaging of the polls, the electoral map, the gender gap, minority numbers - it all points to the same thing --> a Clinton victory.

sounds to me like you dont know, or dont care, that everything you source is in the tank for hilary. same thing as you telling me about jews with nazi press. do you understand the distortions you peddle?

i doubt it.

[onwebcam]

Originally Posted by Biggy

That's a fairly substantial gap to overcome.

On half the population she is up by 10-15 (women). Then on the other half of the population (men), Trump is up by 5, and it shosw a net factor favorable of the gender gap to Clinton of 7-10, dependent on the poll you look at. That's pretty big.

No matter which way you look, including an averaging of the polls, the electoral map, the gender gap, minority numbers - it all points to the same thing --> a Clinton victory.

Trump loves touting poll numbers. He had no problem touting them during primary season. Now he is quiet. Gee, I wonder why.

A big gap like Clinton dropping 10pts in less than a week pre-friday? Democrat women voters will stay at home this election.

[Biggy]

Originally Posted by onwebcam

A big gap like Clinton dropping 10pts in less than a week pre-friday? Democrat women voters will stay at home this election.

How about this...

You and Joshua G can bet me on the election, even odds. I'll take Clinton, you guys take trump. Any amount up to $10,000.