Bladewire

Today was the largest on day drop in the history of our country

Things don't need "correcting" when they're being managed properly

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OneHungLo

Broke ass clown you have no clue how the market works.

BaldBastard

And if you do realise then you also realise this is NOTHING compared to what's coming, DIRECTLY as a result of Trump policies and his political fraud.

All he had to do after Obama was hit twitter daily saying.. Buy American, Hire American, that's how small countries like New Zealand can have free trade agreements with huge counties like China, we don't buy their shit if its available locally.

The American economy was already in good shape, it didn't need stimulus but restraint.

BTW Aussie market followed USA yet.. RBA leaves rates on hold at record low 1.5%

Rates are on hold today, which makes for some easy profit making. USA falling on its own sword/idiot.

The Porn Nerd

Maga!!!!!!!!!!

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Bladewire

The biggest one day market crash in U.S. history. #ThanksTrump

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thommy

correct - the real number are not yet on the table and stockmarket professionals als always only forcast to the next movement of the curve.

they saw the hype with announcement of the tax cut.
sure that this will make a nice short time effect.

now they take their money and follow the logic rules til the next step.

dump citizens think they are now in wonderland and they will spend money like fuck.
that will still bring a great next quarter result in national consumption.

followed by:

1. higher inflation - make the products more expensive and the local production smaller
   
2. rising interst rate from march on - that makes the dollar stronger and the exports will decrease
   
3. higher cost for production because trumps protectionism prefers the expensive production in the homeland instead buying the cheaper imprts
   
4. another increase of local prices what will eat already every benefit from the tax cut.
   
5. elimination of the tax cut profits for smaller and middle income in the next years. at this point smaller and middle households are already worse that they have been before.
   
6. people with no perspective well getting sick - but they lost their health insurance
   
7. sick and poor people will not be able to buy and the national consumption will be on the lowest level. while exports are already history because other countries jumped in the hole trump have opened.
   
8. the big american companies will move offshore to be competitive in a global market

after all that has happend, Canada have to think about building a wall to US because the number of american emigrants will be huge.

THIS is your future your wreck of a president is building for the US citizens while he fills his pockets and get all the necessary connections to build his towers, golf clubs and corruption companies OUTSIDE the USA.

have fun !

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thommy

what i miss is now the tweet:

"I can make bigger crashes than anybody else"

it would be the first time when he would not lie while talking in superlatives

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pimpmaster9000

well ok then, I am giddy with anticipation looking out for signs of MAGA

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NewNick

Neither do you given the title of this thread that you started.

So are you still claiming that movements in the Dow are the work of the Orange Baboon ?



Or do you think he should now resign because of his huuuuge failure ?

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thommy

i am really looking forward how he explain now the way down.

hugo has a very nice phantasy in regards to economic facts and he will tell us for sure that this is just a short break. same as the bitcoin nutters told us since november that is is only a short break.

i enjoy to look from far the hard lessons they will be forced to take to learn that they are talking just bullshit and so far from reality as planet earth and alpha centauri.

btw: i did NOT expect that crash coming right now - it is not logic in the short term because the US economy booms and the next 1 or 2 periods you will see phantastic results from all companies that act only in the local markets. the only reason for that can be that everyone who have a logic economic brain knows that trump just got the last reserves from outside back and they will not last long.

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NewNick

Stock valuations should be based upon the companies ability to create short and/or long term value for its shareholders.

When markets move away from this basic rule irrational exuberance takes over, and a correction becomes inevitable.

Trump took the credit for creating the irrational exuberance.

Not too smart Donald.

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BaldBastard

Market will bouncy back maybe even higher than 26k, hardly a reason for panic yet, just a warning sign.

thommy

possibly it will - but NOT on the longer term.
the bomb is already ticking and NOBODY can stop it anymore. not even trump´s impeachment can change that because the money is already in the flow.

crouch and wait for the bang is all one can do now.

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BaldBastard

I'm well aware of that but its not longer term, its happening right now before our eyes and a bounce back just adds to the issues. People and Governments have been over spending/borrowing based on artificially low interest rates and I'm guilty of it too I see interest rates being closer to 5% before we know it, and Trumps policies have just given them the kick start to move there... while deregulating banks. ^^ USA just brought a heap of cash back in to the economy, all but handed out billions in cash bonuses and cut government income. Its almost as if they are going out of their way to create a perfect inflation bubble.. at a time when individual Americans and the American government are in the highest debt levels ever.


It's madness IMHO. And before a Trump lover or your only friends.. Russians comment on that, as a foreigner webmaster making money in the USA, we will make more money as the USD strengthens, but its you the Amercian people who will be paying for that.

So thanks!

VRPdommy

Well, you can review my 1st 2 posts in this thread (page 1) ...read'm and weep.

I know how the market works and I made money and know when to get out.

More money can be made by me in a 'boom-bust' market.
It's not good for everyone else.
I don't like it.
But I decided long ago to make money, you need to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing. 'Cause most times everyone is wrong and it's because they are being mislead.

I don't follow the crowd. I run from them. But it's all about timing.
I sold and shorted the market and made money on the down side.
LOL
If you can't beat them.... Oh wait... you can.
Thanks for the highly probable overheating the economy.
Future Interest rate hikes
Higher borrowing costs
Slower expansion
Lower corporate profits.

Without Boom-Bust, I would have to rely on dividends.

You didn't think they were going to hand those corporate tax savings to the investors in the form of a dividend did you ?
LOL

thommy

sorry i did a typo there - i meant it is NOT on the short term.
there is too much to make in the next periods and and there are tempting dividends to pick up.

on the longer term things look different - MUCH different and the question is if the money from the short thinkers is more or the money of the longterm thinkers.

what trump did was the most explosive thing a government can do. he has poured petroleum into an already strong fire and that has NEVER gone well.
the market WAS on the point to overheat already, what is kind of a natural emergency break. it is possible that the dow reaches even 28.000 til the end of the year but AFTER that he will fall UNDER the level of 2008/2009 and will cause a worldwide economic crisis.

bad than, that USA have already shot all powder what was to shoot while other countries saved in that time and tried to keep their markets away from overheating.

trump supporters can ot see that because they are living for the moment. they do not care tomorrow as long it is not here. but WHEN it comes they are the loudest one you can hear crying and for SURE they will find someone else who can be guilty for the mistake they made.

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thommy

this countercyclical market strategy is not only correct it is also logic.
because to have winner it MUST have looser.
even when it often does not look like that in the start, the smarter and financial stronger ones will be able to generate losers because the have the longer breath.

one part of their capital will always be used to lead the the lemmings on the wrong track.

this is exactly a smart forcast strategy.
you never should go on a hype but know what is the consequence of it.

i always call that: sitting with my plastic boat in the dessert and everyone laughs about me - and they laugh til the water comes ;-)

this is EXACTLY what i have done all my life and I can not remember that it failed one time.

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OneHungLo

So basically you're always calling for a crash, completely missing all the huge run ups, and then of course.. you're right ...that one time.

Awesome fucking strategy, sprockets...stunning.

Best-In-BC

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thommy

i think you did not read or not understand what i said - but anyway i did not expect something else from you.

you can start to give me advises when you do not need to beg banks anymore for loans to buy real estate. I paid all my real estate from my pocket because i made the run ups and did not run behind them like you clown do.

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pimpmaster9000

The fastest growing part of the US economy is debt LOL

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OneHungLo

Tommy you don't even understand real estate investing in its simplest form. Buying investment properties with cash? Really? It's obvious, like with most topics you speak of on here, you're totally clueless.

thommy

i just sit here and laugh at you moron.

there is no hope for you but you are funny at least.

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Bladewire

^^^ Truth

OneHungLo

Tommy, let's use a real world example.


We each have $100k a piece.

Tommy buys 1 house with cash. Tommy's earning 10k a year in rental income

OneHungLo buys 10 houses and puts down $10k on each house. OneHungLo takes out a $900k mortgage for 30 years. OneHungLo is breaking even early on, but as the mortgage gets paid down, OneHungLo is earning rental income.


At the end of 30 years -

Tommy's 1 house is now worth $200k making him $20k a year in rental income.

Onehunglo's 10 houses are now paid off (thanks to his tenants) and are now worth $200k a piece ($2 million in total) with $200k a year in rental income.

Who would you rather be?


^^ This is just rudimentary real estate investing. You don't have to be an "economic guru" like you claim to be able to grasp this.

Matt-ADX

in terms of points. It's not even in the top 25 in terms of % drops.

OneHungLo

You're going way over his head with that. He'll never be able to understand

Matt-ADX

It really is just a liberal echo chamber when it comes to them. I saw the drop looked up the data and clearly it wasn't a big issue. But the sky is falling according to CNN. Obviously the higher the dow goes it will have this issue going forward. But its the end of the world

OneHungLo

Of course CNN doesn't focus on the 200k jobs added or the largest wage growth since 2008 Let's focus on the irrational drop of the stock market which was well overdue for a correction.

thommy

ok i will answer you with the most common world example.

1. i buy my house and pay it cash
2. the rest of my money i give to my bank what is lending it to you and pay me interest
3. i wait a bit til the next crisis comes or your renters can´t pay their rent anymore and you can not pay your mortage.
4. i take a little part of the money from my bank back and buy all your shit for an apple and an egg.

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OneHungLo

Only problem with your scenario is rental property doesn't price with residential property. Rental properties' value are primarily based off of the rent roll/ cash flow. When the housing market crashes more people rent and rents either stay the same or typically go up.

See the way I outlined it, time & debt are on my side. Renters have always and will always rent, whether the market is up or down. When you have time on your side it doesn't matter.

Thanks again for showing your ignorance you insufferable bastard.

The Porn Nerd

Great examples you posted of basic real estate principles! Now all I need is that 100K (and decent credit for the mortgages) and I'm off and running.

Gotta love our resident expert thommy's logic. Pay in cash (dumb), put money in bank to gain interest (idiot), wait for unseen market forces to appear (which they may not) forcing you to sell and THEN he will have the last laugh.

OMG too funny. In terms of percentages I wonder which scenario is more likely to happen, yours or his?

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Matt-ADX

Lol I was thinking the same thing when I read his post. Basically he is gambling more in his scenario than HungLo is.

OneHungLo

Tommy's scenario never happens because like I explained - rental properties are based off income and not necessarily property value. Barring nuclear devastation, renters aren't going anywhere and when was the last time your landlord lowered your rent?

But yeah, real estate is the way to go. The best part about that scenario is on that 2 million in equity, a big fat zero has been paid in taxes. You literally can perpetually forgo the taxes, even if you sell it you can move all the income into a bigger piece of property through a 1031 exchange and literally never pay taxes. Why do you think Trump doesn't want to show his tax returns? He hasn't paid a dime on BILLIONS of real estate he owns. Fucking BILLIONS evaded..and the beautiful part is...it's all legal! lol

pimpmaster9000

the problem with negative gearing is that 30 years, in your example, is a lot of time and the prices of real estate and rent in the USA are already a joke...you are heavily betting that your current 20 trillion $ debt, your 4.6 trillion deficit towards pensions, 10 further trillion debt that just trump will make and your #1 growing industry: debt, will not come due....

what happens if your economy tanks and renters cant pay the say 2000$ rent?...you can not dismiss the very real possibility that the debt will come due...guess what the banks will do with your shit?

the real estate racket/balloon, the medical insurance racket/scam and the taxes on the middle class and poor are only going UP....I hope your renters pay off them properties soon...

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OneHungLo

So I guess you're like tommy sitting in the desert with a plastic boat waiting for the rain? lol

If the economy crashes you can rest your beating heart my properties will still be rented. Like I said, barring a nuclear holocaust is the only way I lose.

pimpmaster9000

no I am just being realistic about your dying business model...the middle class in the USA is going nowhere but down...automation will take more and more jobs...your debt is going nowhere but up and the bill must come due one day...taxes on the middle and poor will go up because somebody has to foot the bill...oh and then theres the healthcare insurance joke

negative gearing is basically banks printing money out of thin air, lending it to people who already have money so that they can rent properties to people who do not have money and will have less and less money in the future who are getting fucked on all sides...modern slavery LOL

what happens when your renter can not pay the 2000$/month? but you owe the bank 2000$/month to break even?

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BaldBastard

Better hope you don't have a fuck head playing with the economy then.

because in another scenario one gets mortgaged maxed and then finds interest rates got up 10x what they are now. Property prices cash because less can afford a new loan and those that are going broke dump theirs for what they can get. And all of a sudden your left with a dead asset, that's worth less than you paid for it, and costing your more than your making. Right now, well the past 5 years.. is good times, if your not paying down your debt, be prepared for some serious life adjustments.

-
Nice recap here on the events of the past week.

Stoking a fire with gasoline: why the US share market shuddered

Stoking a fire with gasoline: why the US share market shuddered

OneHungLo

You're right. Mortgage rates could rise (although I'm locked in 20-30 yrs) and could lower prices, but once again that will not affect me because;

1) I got all the time in the world. I'm not a flipper or speculator. I'm a longterm investor. Mortgage rates are cyclical and rise and fall throughout history. I can withstand a 20-30% haircut on my rents and still make my debt service.

2) Mortgage rates go up = less people buying houses and more demand for rentals = $

I've been buying all throughout the 2000s and I can specifically recall my father laughing at me in 2008 when the bottom fell out because I had bought right before the crash. I survived that crash because I put enough down and my rents were never lowered during that crash. Now the mortgage is half paid off and the property is worth 25% MORE than it was in 2007.

Will mortgage rates rise? Yes 100%. Will we go into a recession at some point? Yes 100%. Will I ride out out? Yes 100%.


So are you in Tommy's camp where you pay for your house with cash and give the rest of the money to your bank to collect a pittance of interest and wait for some catastrophic unforeseen event? As an investor with any semblance of investing knowledge you have to recognize that as probably the worst choice you could possibly make. Or are you just going to agree with him because you guys share a love of hating Trump?

BaldBastard

The problem is each of us is in a different market, your 25% increase over 10 years can't be compared to my 250% + increase here in Sydney over the same time frame ;)

I'd say 1/2 the investment apartments sold here.. don't even bother to get tenants. If you have CASH.. plonk it in Sydney property, or as in Tommy's case German. (only guessing that no idea of German market )

OneHungLo

I'm just using that 25% as an example of buying in the bubble. My other properties from 2002 and on are up 200%+

And what do you mean by " 1/2 the investment apartments sold here.. don't even bother to get tenants"..I'm confused. Why would you buy an investment property and not fill it with tenants?

BaldBastard

speculative buying rather than long-term investing, tenants are to much hassle, average here for a say a 2 room apartment is 900k most suburbs get 10-20% growth a year, so your making 100k+ a year just from that. Put a tenant in there and you make anther 30-40k a year but it limits when you can sell, and the condition the place is in, figure in 20k for a quick freshen up of the place.

For a lot of investors it's just not worth it, better to run it empty and flip for another one.

Here's my suburb for ya

https://www.realestate.com.au/invest...eray,+nsw+2062

OneHungLo

Oh ok, I'm talking about buying apartment buildings not single family or one unit residences.


And wow 10-20% growth a year on real estate? I don't follow the re market in Australia but that sounds like you're in little bubble yourself.

BaldBastard

No Sydney doesn't have a bubble.. its under priced

And you want to know why that is?

Immigrants.


;)

OneHungLo

Do you think I'm against immigrants? I'm all for anyone who can come here and support themselves, especially ones that can afford to buy high-end real estate. I'm against the ones that offer nothing and will jump onto our welfare system, or the ones that come here illegally. As long as you come here and believe in our constitution and what it stands for (which eliminates all muslims) come one, come all

I guess there are quite a few people that disagree with you online about the Sydney housing market and whether it's in a bubble or not

BaldBastard

Except for the Chinese, immigrants in general come with no money. But they get jobs, they want housing, they want schools and then they want better houses and better schools for their kids... its the same scenario world wide, well except in communist countries of course ;)

As far as the Sydney market goes, those saying its in a bubble.. don't live here, and they have been saying it for the past 20 years. Everyone who comes to Sydney wants a nice place, by the beach in a good suburb, its the Aussie dream! Currently you will need more than 5mill in your pocket to live that. So people " Immigrants ", newlyweds etc get in to the housing market in the outer suburbs.. 50 miles from the beach. And then they spend their whole lives trying to get to the beach. So the local property market is self generating with a natural progression towards the city and the beach.

There's nothing on the forecast to say less people are moving here, in fact its speeding up! Population projections - Department of Planning and Environment

SuckOnThis

No way do you invest in real estate or you would know right off the bat no one is going to give a loan on investment property with less than 20% down because investment property will not qualify for PMI. You're full of shit.

thommy

rental objects are paid from people who rent them and can pay them.

where would you be if you bought, let´s say 2000 objects in detroit ?

did you not learn from your real estate crisis ?

i mean it is up to you when you can sleep with debts - i can not.
and I own quite a lot of real estate. when i was young i did in ONCE and got a loan on
a house what i lost later in exactly such unforeseen circumstances.
since than i never asked a bank anymore for anything and i will never do it.

there are so much better ways to let money work without a gun from a banker on my head.

but as i say - it is your choice and you should do with your money and your life what you want. it is just not my way what can be because i am a few years older than you and i have already all what i ever wanted in my life.

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PR_Glen

yeah, I noticed that too. that makes a huge difference but Bladewire hasn't really grasped math yet.

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OneHungLo

Relax dumbass, I'm just trying to use simple numbers so Tommy can wrap his brain around the power of leverage. I would never myself or advice anyone to put down 10% on a property. Every single property I've bought i put down was 25-35%. But you could have up until last year through Fannie Mae's homepath mortgage..I believe you could have mortgaged up to 10 properties with 10% down. Personally I wouldn't but I know of people who did.