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Discuss what's fucking going on, and which programs are best and worst. One-time "program" announcements from "established" webmasters are allowed. |
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#1 |
Hello world!
Industry Role:
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 12,508
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What are you predictions for Adult in 2004?
Will 3rd party processors be around and in the same capacity? If so, which ones are you "banking" on, pun intended?
Will we see another affiliate program breakthrough like BangBus of CFF? Will Visa discontinue adult processing in the US (only 3 banks do it now)? Will Visa International come under the same regulations as Visa USA? Is AVS doomed or just in for an overhaul? Will Acadia win or lose? Will any popular sponsor programs be shut down for not being able to keep chargebacks below 1%? Will an alternative form of payment processing be developed and be succesful so that webmasters are less reliant on Visa? Where do you think YOU will be; better off or worse than now? |
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#2 |
Entrepreneur
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: USA
Posts: 31,429
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#3 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: KB's trailer
Posts: 7,840
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By the end of 2004 I predict the following.
3rd party processors will be forced out of business. There may be one or two left at the most. We will depend more on checks, 900#, dialers, etc. Visa/MC will change the rules are far as recurring. Acacia will drag on for years. Bottom line tough times ahead, I hope to survive, but many will not. AVS looks to be changing, well before 2004. |
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#4 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Virgin - nee
Posts: 3,162
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I don't think 3rd party will be forced out completely. Gonna see at least 4 more shut down though. I think CCBill and Epoch will survive.
AVS is a dead man walking. *IF* it's still around by '04, it will only be overseas and only until Visa Int'l adopts the same rules Visa US is about to put into place. Ditto what Brad said with Visa changing rules, we're relying more on other forms of payment, and Acacia dragging on for years. Popular sponsor programs shut down because of cbs? Yes. Visa Int'l same rules as Visa US? Yes. Alternate forms of payment developed? Yes. Sucessful? ehhhh... eventually yes but I think it will take at least a year - webmasters are *too* reliant on those Visa cards. Me? Better off in '04, and still here. |
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#5 |
So Fucking Banned
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Dis
Posts: 4,751
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For most people:
![]() For those that are capitalized, experienced, and can adapt, the reduction in competition & idiots will be profitable. |
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#6 |
best designer on GFY
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: IALIEN.COM - High Definition Video and Photographic Productions -ICQ 78943384
Posts: 30,307
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I am with Brad on most of his points there.
Its a miracle there is still 3rd Party Processing still IMO.
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#7 | |
Hello world!
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Quote:
I sure hope you're wrong about recurring billing. That would be mean certain disaster. That's a frightening thought. How can programs survive charging one-time fees? |
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#8 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: KB's trailer
Posts: 7,840
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I also think, you will see more and more people walk away from the business. Some will full wallets, others back to 9-5 jobs.
Also, I expect all future shows to get smaller and smaller. Simply fewer people in the biz, and very little reason anymore to blow $.
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#9 |
So Fucking Banned
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Dis
Posts: 4,751
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Agree with Brad about AVS.
If you are relying on AVS as the majority of your income, you are a dead man walking. Time to diversify. |
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#10 | |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Virgin - nee
Posts: 3,162
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#11 | |
Hello world!
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Quote:
![]() Do you do design? How will none of these affect you? |
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#12 |
There can be only one
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Somewhere else
Posts: 39,075
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3rd party processing is going down fast... and that sucks big time.
I think Visa may continue to just get tougher. Acacia... who knows... would love to see them defeated, but there's just no way to really tell how that's gonna come out yet. overall and in general, it's getting tougher every day... 2004 I think will see some massive streamlining and refining of the biz as a whole. The gold rush is over. Now it's sink or swim.
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#13 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Virgin - nee
Posts: 3,162
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Definitely - lots of people leaving. Some because they have to, others because they're just sick of the bullshit and don't want to deal with it anymore.
But if you can ride it through, it'll be sweet on the other side of the storm. |
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#14 | |
Hello world!
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#15 |
Old Timer
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Indianapolis
Posts: 12,208
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The sky is falling. It's the end of the world!
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#16 | |
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: "evitcepsrep ruoy egnahc"
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Quote:
Of course there will be a few smash hit sites like bangbus or CFF. There always is and always will be. No they will not stop all together. I do not know, I am in the US. Would that effect me? AVS will need either a massive overhaul or they shall perish. I hope they loose, if not anticipate on a whole lot less newbie webmasters, and free porn and wait ummm that could be good ![]() Yes, to many of them offer shit membership areas. I would be pissed to holy hell if I signed up for many of them. Volume and playing with how they process may help but not for all of them. Yes, lets hope that someone can develop actual ATM transactions. |
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#17 | |
Hello world!
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Join Date: Mar 2003
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Quote:
I think many are willing to do this. 3rd party will still be around to provide a lot of gateway services and possibly to continue processing for large reliable clients with no history of chargeback problems? |
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#18 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Mtl
Posts: 4,596
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a new selfmade multimillionaire webmaster named Thrawn$ will be around
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#19 | |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Virgin - nee
Posts: 3,162
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Quote:
![]() Mainly though the reason why I'll be able to survive is because I *don't* have a big office staff to pay, a huge house and a bunch of exotic cars to pay for, etc. - those guys are going to be hit hard and I feel for 'em. No matter whether they're making 500 signups a day or 20 signups a day, they've got a ton of shit to pay for. What's a mere annoyance to me could be a huge blow to them. Hey, anyone can do it though, keep your head up. Look at Quiet. No affiiates, no fucking with the surfer, low chargeback rate, and one of the most successful sites on the net. If he can do it, anyone can do it - you just gotta want it badly enough. |
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#20 | |
There can be only one
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#21 |
Entrepreneur
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: USA
Posts: 31,429
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Its a great time to buy prime Internet Real Estate.
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#22 | |
Hello world!
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#23 |
So Fucking Banned
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Dis
Posts: 4,751
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I don't share the pessimism for the future of 3rd party processing in general.
A disturbing number of 3rd party processors have bitten the dust in the last couple of weeks, but remember, these were the people who tried to flout Visa. I could be wrong, and I'm certainly not speaking on any insider info here, but it may be that they are the only ones who will die. Unless you know something I don't, we're all in "wait and see" mode. ![]() |
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#24 | |
Hello world!
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#25 | |
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#26 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Virgin - nee
Posts: 3,162
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Probilling and Verotel still don't charge the fees. I think ProBilling might stop processing Visa but keep going with its other products (their instant check option seems to be popular and 'strong').
Ibill... they're trying, but I don't see them lasting. PSW Billing just sounded the infamous death knell... "we've frozen funds but just for a little while". I hope they don't go down, some good folks over there. But it's not looking good, and the # of webmasters who jump ship after today's announcement is going to hurt them. |
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#27 |
There can be only one
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are alot of people really bailing out? I can understand someone new getting totally overwhelmed with everything there is to be compliant with now.... but is there just too much heat in the industry nowdays that established people are feeling it's time to jump ship?
i mean.... most businesses aren't what I would call easy, and yeah, there's alot of shit to deal with in porn.... but is it really that bad already?
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#28 | |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Tampa, FL
Posts: 3,420
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Quote:
No ... no it's not. I wouldn't trade my job to go back to "the real world" if anyone offered me twice the money. |
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#29 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Earth
Posts: 2,379
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I'm sure there will always be more program breakthroughs.
I think visa etc will still be around, but just in another form with different rules and guidelines. AVS will get an overhaul. Acacia will loose, after a long time of battling in courts. I'm sure many programs will be shut down or forced to take a pay cut to keep below 1% CB I'll be better off, i have interests in other industries, so no matter which way the egg rolls i'm fine :-) so long as they're making a profit, i'll leave my sites up, i've been making a profit for the last 3 years and don't expect that to change within the next 2 years atleast. good luck! |
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#30 | |
Mining for Porn!
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Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: New Haven CT
Posts: 1,328
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Quote:
Actually thats been my trend for some time now.
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#31 |
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Gooch city
Posts: 9,527
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ask funkmaster when he wakes up
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#32 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: KB's trailer
Posts: 7,840
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These days I spend about half my time at the office working on non internet related ventures. When away from work and the computer, my mind is 100% on non internet ventures. I do alot of reading.
I can honestly say that if the internet died tomorrow, I could maintain my lifestyle for atleast 10 years. I could maintain a very nice lifestyle for 25+ years. Smartest thing I ever did was hire a financial consultant and spent hours up hours working with him.
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#33 |
Zph7YXfjMhg
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: In Your Skull
Posts: 15,316
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I see Brad and Amp getting together for some mutual masturbation.
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#34 |
Jesus loves bacon
Industry Role:
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Sin City, Motherfucker
Posts: 19,969
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what is disaster for some is opportunity for others.....
I look to do just fine in '04...the rest of '03? who knows? ;-)
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#35 |
Too lazy to set a custom title
Industry Role:
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 34,431
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will any of the Top 10 affilliate programs get bounced by VISA in 2004?
Jettis and CCBILL are my bets for longest survival among 3rd party processors.
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I moved my sites to Vacares Hosting. I've saved money, my hair is thicker, lost some weight too! Thanks Sly!
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#36 | |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: KB's trailer
Posts: 7,840
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Quote:
Yes, I can think of a couple offhand that have no chance to get under 1%. They will ride off into the sunset, already rich. I spent weeks coming up with ways to lower my cb ratio .1%, I could not imagine having to lower it a full 1% with huge volume.
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#37 | |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Gooch city
Posts: 9,527
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Quote:
name some programs
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#38 |
I'm Lenny2 Bitch
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: On top of my soapbox
Posts: 13,449
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Brad seems to be the most pessimistic.
Brad, what effect do you think all the changes will have on us small time resellers? The way I see it is the main commodity we deal with is traffic, and whoever is left standing will still be willing to buy that traffic from us right? I also don't see 3rd party processing going away, if VISA wanted to make every paysite owner get their own merchant account they could have done that already right? Why classify the processors as IPSP's and register every url and all that mumbo jumbo, just to make everyone get their own merchant account a year later. Looking at it from VISA's point of view it doesn't make any sense to me. I do however think that ALOT of paysite owners will lose their ability to process PERIOD, through an IPSP or otherwise.
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#39 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Sweden
Posts: 7,219
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I'm not worried..I'm with tgp(the future?) and if 3-party billing goes down it's always a way around...
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#40 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: California
Posts: 1,277
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For God's sake, Carrie, stop blowing smoke up our asses. You talk like you are a big porn expert. Shit! You work out of your home with a husband and two kids running around. You kiss ass to get jobs from Net-pond and all-of-em. Everyone knows you took a job away from another webmaster on Net-pond.
Just go away and take your bullshit with you. You know a few technical things. So what! We all do. You are a bullshitter and your word means nothing. ![]() |
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#41 | |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Little South of Sanity
Posts: 178
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Quote:
Any ISPS that is accepting cross border transactions will be gone - that is happening now Whoever can come up with a new exciting concept and the proper promotion will be the breakthrough's - again look for the adult internet to follow televisions lead, maybe a American Porn Star type thing (like American Idol) Visa will most likely still be processing adult on-line entertainment transactions with more rules and regs (remember we have to pay $375 this year) Visa international will most likely adopt most of Visa USA regs AVS will need a serious overhaul at the least, in it's present form they are almost like a aggregator Acadia will still be tied up in the courts Programs won't go away because they are over 1% CB, they will go away behind the weight of the fines from being over 1% CB. Some will reform (new companies, new sites, new URL's, new front people) and come back, others will just walk - Partnership programs may have more market share if too many PPS programs get hit with fines and close or have to change their business model Check processing will be more popular but until there is real time verification it won't replace CC's. Epassporte could increase market penetration once they have a model for recurring payments in place. I'll be about the same, maybe some growth depending on how much the industry shakes out. My non-internet interests will grow (depending on the US economy) MicroChick = Confucy
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#42 |
Confirmed User
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Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 3,927
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It's all about dollars.com. You'll see
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#43 | |
we'll miss you our friend. RIP
Industry Role:
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Fernie, BC
Posts: 25,115
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Quote:
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we'll miss you our friend. RIP |
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#44 | |
Too lazy to set a custom title
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Tube Titans, USA
Posts: 11,929
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Quote:
Then they came for the paysite operators but I owned a TGP, so I didn't speak up. Finally I realized there was no one left to sell my traffic too and by that time there was no one left to speak up
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#45 | |
we'll miss you our friend. RIP
Industry Role:
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Fernie, BC
Posts: 25,115
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Quote:
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we'll miss you our friend. RIP |
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#46 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,012
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I made a good living off tgp 3-4 months ago, now I don't touch it because its next to useless.
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#47 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Earth
Posts: 303
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What adult?
Oh, adult online biz which existed up to 2004? Nothing to predict ![]()
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don't even think about it |
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#48 | |
aspiring banker
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: toronto
Posts: 10,870
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#49 |
So Fucking Banned
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: chandler, az
Posts: 1,052
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without porn.. there is alot of horny fuckers that will need to get off some where else.. i think it would fuck the world up when a few million horny men running around looking to get off some where..
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#50 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Loveland, CO
Posts: 5,526
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My Prediction: In and after 2004 i'll still dig on porn.
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