GreyWolf

The main factor, above all, is debt man. It's the root cause of almost all problems and the ripple effect is fairly extensive.

The policy of the FED was maintain the status quo without shaking the deck of cards and at any time there was a rumble, they just injected more notes into the system to keep liquidity.

When the debt is unsettling and not actually being addressed, it can take very little to cause an earth tremor. And that "little" thing was the home market.

The home market is little more than exuberance - it was not real and encouraged by predatory lending by financial institutions in the form of sub-prime mortgages. They were promoting their own asses, but selling an unsustainable dream where the mortgagees were not in a position to maintain these mortgages.

This may have, who knows, suited the Fed at one stage. It mean't a boom in the construction industry and more jobs and showed a positive side for the economy overall. But... the foundations were on sandy ground and not financially sustainable.

The bad side re the home industry is that this accounts for around 24% of total economy when you all add related industries which cater to the home market - construction companies, realtors, kitchen equipment manufacturers et al. When these companies are hit - there can be considerable job loses. This ripple effect also extends to retailers and, little doubt, they are on the hit list already.

There is now a growing backlog of homes available for sale, but not going to be sold in the forseeable future. That scenario is not good when a developer is considering construction of still more homes and it places him in a precarious position where he can lose serious money - and unlikely he is going to employ 400 people on whatever project - less jobs on the market.

There has been a concept that everyone should buy real estate and the idea that "this will make me rich". Purchases of a home were not necessarily on the basis of what a home is for - living in. Sure, it can, and for many, it does make them rich, but again, many folks have over-extended themselves and put what they had accquired into jeopardy. Homes for the average person are not "profit centers" - unless it is a home development development biz.

The third problem... tho related and as a result of the above, is a credit crunch. This has already started and the Fed have dumped... (can't remember exactly), but around $150 billion into the system in the last month to keep liquidity with banks etc. People *need* to earn and have floating money - not just to pay off the maxed-out cards and already consolidated loans, but for mortgage payments, food and daily living. If there is a lack of funds, it is again going to hit mortgage lenders, retailers ad nausea. The mortgage lenders will be left with more homes than they could possibly move on and, if that keeps increasing and homes keep depreciating - they will go bust.

Who knows how deep the credit crunch may be? At worst is recession, but hopefull it will go nowhere near that.

Because of all of the above (plus a few other elements), the dollar is being put under pressure. Investors have been withdrawing from the market for a fair time now - it's hard to expect managers of hedge funds etc to keep their client funds in an depreciating or unstable market. This stuff is a vicious cycle.

Each time the dollar depreciates, sure on a personal level it affects webmasters resident outside the US, but, that is peanuts in relation to the effect on the US economy. Oil prices will rise with each depreciation of the dollar, exports become more expensive, further pressure is put on US folks economically. There are no winners either way in this scenario and the main effects will prob start to show in the US before the year end.

If it was not for internal US debt and the home crunch, - the dollar would probably be fine. Tho there is an underlying problem in that the US economy has been running at a deficit for many years and is not sustainable, (basically over-consumption and instant purchasing without having the ability to pay - the credit card syndrome where the debt is constantly increasing), tho has been managed fairly well by the Fed, but at a cost.

It's hard to see any light at the end of the tunnel yet. There has been no plan forthcoming from the Treasury or the Fed. I just don't like any of this - if it was a corp, I'd vote to liquidating it - but, ya can't do that with nations. It needs a plan to work out of the problem - there is a long way to go and 100% certain it will get worse and ya can't help but feel for folks who could be seriously affected.

The Fed are kinda stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea - they can lower or raise interest rates, inject more paper into the ecomomy etc. It's a *very* fine balance which needs to be struck to keep the boat stable - and sure not easy. It is prob fair to say, it can't just rely on the Fed alone - govt needs to take a lead along with industry towards a plan for actual wealth creation, increase employment prospects and put money into the pockets of the public. Constant loans are not a solution in the long term - that policy managed to accumulate prob over a $10 trill worth of debt so far.

Botton line - debt is the problem and it's hard to counter other problems when you are already deep in debt. It's also prob not helpful exporting industries to other nations in an effort to get something cheaper. There is always a cost.

xmas13

Don't call me racist but Japan and China are protectionist countries and there is no fair/free trade with these nations.

After borrowing for decades to buy their goods without selling them anything, American fell deeply in debt and Japanese/Chinese became America's bankers.

True story.

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FreeOnes

Yes and the more the better. This means the end of the devaluation is coming near. Because at 1 point there don't come more negative people who wanna get rid of their dollars.

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GreyWolf

My bad - not quite accurate...

The Treasury did propose a plan in 2003. They already knew there was an underlying problem after having did the most extensive review ever of the US economy.

The Treasury's proposal for a remedy at that time was raise taxation immediately to 60% and hold it there for the foreseeable future. Apart from the shock effect of this - it *may* have worked in 2003, but doubt now.

Either way, the administration filed it in the out-tray within a week and covered the out-tray with six feet of soil A future admin will have to deal with the problem and meantime, "the economy is solid"

xmas13

What about fundamentals?

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yahoo-xxx-girls.com

GreyWolf,

I appreciate you taking the time to explain.

As far as I understand the US dollar was backed by gold and that the notes printed in the early days represented the exact value of the gold represented. Is it fair to say that the US dollar is no longer backed by gold and does not represent its value also if this is true then its backed by nothing other then agreed trade value on a federal level with other nations? would you also say it is accurate?

It was suggested by "Alex Jones" that the US people are paying interest on their dollars both printed and coins. He went on to say most US citizens did not know this fact... Is there any truth in this ???

Thanks again for your time.

Later,

.

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yahoo-xxx-girls.com

It's not Japan nor china who are the American's (US) bankers. xmas13 I have heard some really stupid comments from you and this is the worst... Do you think for one sec that Japan, who got bombed by the US, would look out for it's interest. No pun intended... also China is threating the US as to dump it's US dollars back into the US economy... This is called financial warfare. Such is to undermind the US economy.

Also why would either Japan or China have free trade with the US?

Now it would be nice if Canada could do more trade with Japan... lumber etc...

Later,

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xmas13

Money As Debt - Modern Banking
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...74362583451279

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xmas13

: America is not the world's largest debtor?

Who holds the debt is the creditor (a.ka. financier, banker...).

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FreeOnes

Fundamentals change from time to time. It can go slowly or within 1 day.
Here a long time chart of the USA/Euro: http://www.ta.nl/index_chart.cgi?cha...ar&dir=indices

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GreyWolf

On the first para - na, gold went years ago as a base for currency and all that's needed now is a good printing press, ink, paper and a degree of confidence

Not sure what Jones means by paying interest on dollars. The Fed can appear to operate in mysterious ways - sounds more like a secret society and you got to wonder who really "owns" the Fed. The whole foundation of that was always a mystery and very few people involved seen interested in being transparent

xmas13

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RegUser

the Can $ is at 1.08 today and likely to go upto 1.10 at least.
I wonder if it will continue even further
we are looking at getting CAN $ 900 for US $1000 !!!!
my loss so far has exceeded 25 K

Isn't is fair to assume that everyone is about to fled the US $ barn, the exodus starting a massive crash?

yahoo-xxx-girls.com

Hey GreyWolf,

Check out Money As Debt - Modern Banking
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...74362583451279

Yea I know xmas13 had posted it, however do yourself a favor and check it out...

Later,

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directfiesta

I can tell you that you can't find a sorry ass US tourist downtown ... even at the titty bars ....
They use to come here like they went to tijuana, but now they can't afford the cover charge ....

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CE_Rashaan

You are making good points...but this is part of the problem...with China at least. Their currency value is pegged to the dollar. We buy their exports but we cant get the same returns on our exports to them because their currency value is sooooo low, when in actuality it is not.

I think this will change soon...and naturally we will pump our capitalist ideology into their veins with all of our AMERICAN products. Entertainment, Cars, Clothes, Foods etc... Before you know it they will be junkies hooked on our shit AND they WILL have the cash to score their next hit...beautiful

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yahoo-xxx-girls.com

You mean democratic/capitalist/fascism state... (in theory) MatrixRashaan and no China will not except others nations policies easily, however they are becoming more capitalist every day... with their population explosion.

.

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GreyWolf

OK.. China's currency is pegged to the dollar. What's wrong with that? The only reasons the US govt now wants China to devalue is to get even more crap cheaper and owe less on the biz already done with China. There is no reason to keep buying from China other than for cheap product and there is an inability to even pay for that.


Nope - it's not likely to change in a long time. There is nothing keeping the US export more - to China and other countries. Entertainment? Sure. Cars? Not likely - other nations manufacture cars. Clothes? Sure, but who makes exportable clothing in the US? China makes more clothes and footware. Foods? The only "food" exported which had a trade surplus was wheat. Overall - forget China - there has never been a US trading surplus with the whole planet in 40 years. What chance now? It's a serious problem and not a new problem, but has been like that for many years now.

The problem is within - not with other countries.

RegUser

Thats a very accurate statement but unfortunately most Americans dont want to think it this way.

Tempest

Was at the bank today.. They said that they're being told it will get to $1.12 very soon... My gut is telling me it's going to get even worse.. like $1.20 -> $1.25... So plan accordingly...

xmas13

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Nydahl

I just read this but can't resist now- you have no idea what you are talking about here.There is close to nothing manufactured in US these days so I really doubht that you pump in anything.
Also this politics of week currency can be plus in the short term but in the end it will cost you US guys a lot.
just my - don't want to take a part in "I hate US" discussion

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RogerV

Everyone just needs to www.GetRichInPorn.com

halfpint

Do you only pay out in US Dollars because $30.00 is only worth £14.33

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AGS-17

Another guy for the retard list...

RegUser

well it has already fallen below CAN $1.10 !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thats a 26% drop, most of it this year alone.
I am happy that I invested in gold and have recovered a part of it. most likely gold is gonna shoot up while a crash in US $ has happened already and will go on for some more time.